Permafrost degradation is one of the most significant consequences of climate change in the Arctic. During summers, permafrost degradation is evident with cryospheric hazards like retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) and active layer detachment slides (ALDs). In parallel, the Arctic has become a popular tourist destination for nature-based activities, with summer being the peak touristic season. In this context, cryospheric hazards pose potential risks for tourists' presence in Arctic national parks and wilderness in general, like in the Yukon. This essay provides the basis for investigating further periglacial, geomorphological and tourism intersections, highlighting the critical need for future interdisciplinary research on thawing permafrost impacts. More so, this requires moving beyond the predominant focus on permafrost impacts on infrastructure and to also consider the direct threats posed to human physical presence in Arctic tourist destinations affected by permafrost degradation. Such interdisciplinary approach is critical not only to mitigate risks, but also to provide policy- and decision-makers with valuable insights for implementing measures and guidelines.
Influenced by a warm and humid climate, the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is undergoing significant degradation, leading to the occurrence of extensive thermokarst landforms. Among the most typical landforms in permafrost areas is thaw slump. This study, based on three periods of data from keyhole images of 1968-1970, the fractional images of 2006-2009 and the Gaofen (GF) images of 2018-2019, combined with field surveys for validation, investigates the distribution characteristics and spatiotemporal variation trends of thaw slumps in the Hoh Xil area and evaluates the susceptibility to thaw slumping in this area. The results from 1968 to 2019 indicate a threefold increase in the number and a twofold increase in total area of thaw slumps. Approximately 70% of the thaw slumps had areas less than 2 x 104 m2. When divided into a grid of 3 km x 3 km, about 1.3% (128 grids) of the Hoh Xil region experienced thaw slumping from 1968 to 1970, while 4.4% (420 grids) showed such occurrences from 2018 to 2019. According to the simulation results obtained using the informativeness method, the area classified as very highly susceptible to thaw slumping covers approximately 26% of the Hoh Xil area, while the highly susceptible area covers about 36%. In the Hoh Xil, 61% of the thaw slump areas had an annual warming rate ranging from 0.18 to 0.25 degrees C/10a, with 70% of the thaw slump areas experiencing a precipitation increase rate exceeding 12 mm/10a. Future assessments of thaw slump development suggest a possible minimum of 41 and a maximum of 405 thaw slumps occurrences annually in the Hoh Xil region. Under rapidly changing climatic conditions, apart from environmental risks, there also exist substantial potential risks associated with thaw slumping, such as the triggering of large-scale landslides and debris flows. Therefore, it is imperative to conduct simulated assessments of thaw slumping throughout the entire plateau to address regional risks in the future.
Thermokarst landslide (TL) activity in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is intensifying due to climate warminginduced permafrost degradation. However, the mechanisms driving landslide formation and evolution remain poorly understood. This study investigates the spatial distribution, annual frequency, and monthly dynamics of TLs along the Qinghai-Tibet engineering corridor (QTEC), in conjunction with in-situ temperature and rainfall observations, to elucidate the interplay between warming, permafrost degradation, and landslide activity. Through the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and field surveys, we identified 1298 landslides along the QTEC between 2016 and 2022, with an additional 386 landslides recorded in a typical landslide-prone subarea. In 2016, 621 new active-layer detachments (ALDs) were identified, 1.3 times the total historical record. This surge aligned with unprecedented mean annual and August temperatures. The ALDs emerged primarily between late August and early September, coinciding with maximum thaw depth. From 2016 to 2022, 97.8 % of these ALDs evolved into retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs), identified as active landslides. Landslides typically occur in alpine meadows at moderate altitudes and on gentle northward slopes. The thick ice layer near the permafrost table serves as the material basis for ALD occurrence. Abnormally high temperature significantly increased the active layer thickness (ALT), resulting in melting of the ice layer and formation of a thawed interlayer, which was the direct causing factor for ALD. By altering the local material, micro-topography, and thermal conditions, ALD activity significantly increases RTS susceptibility. Understanding the mechanisms of ALD formation and evolution into RTS provides a theoretical foundation for infrastructure development and disaster mitigation in extreme environments.
Climate warming can lead to permafrost degradation, potentially resulting in slope failures such as retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs). The formation of and changes in RTSs could exacerbate the degradation of permafrost and the environment in general. The mechanisms of RTS progression and the potential consequences on the analogous freeze-thaw cycle are not well understood, owing partly to necessitating field work under harsh conditions and with high costs. Here, we used multi-source remote sensing and field surveys to quantify the changes in an RTS on Eboling Mountain in the Qilian Mountain Range in west-central China. Based on optical remote sensing and SBAS-InSAR measurements, we analyzed the RTS evolution and the underlying drivers, combined with meteorological observations. The RTS expanded from 56 m2 in 2015 to 4294 m2 in 2022, growing at a rate of 1300 m2/a to its maximum in 2018 and then decreasing. Changes in temperature and precipitation play a dominant role in the evolution of the RTS, and the extreme weather in 2016 may also be a primary contributor to the accelerated growth, with an average deformation of -8.3 mm during the thawing period, which decreased slope stability. The RTS evolved more actively during the thawing and early freezing process, with earthquakes having potentially contributed further to RTS evolution. We anticipate that the rate of RTS evolution is likely to increase in the coming years.
Permafrost carbon release is potentially the largest terrestrial feedback contributing to climate change. However, the changes in carbon release caused by the abrupt thawing of permafrost and their controlling factors remain largely unknown. Here, we measured soil organic carbon (SOC), total nitrogen (TN) concentrations, and carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) emission rates among seven permafrost collapse features over 3 years in the northern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). The results showed soil carbon and nitrogen loss caused by permafrost collapse ranged from - 12% to 28% and - 1% to 38%, respectively. We found there was a nonlinear relationship between soil carbon loss and permafrost collapse chronosequence. Permafrost collapse significantly reduced ecosystem respiration (Reco) and weakened carbon sinks. The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) decreased from 2.59 to - 0.21 & mu;mol CO2 m- 2 s- 1. The Reco and NEE values showed no significant changes over time after the initial permafrost collapse. In contrast, the CH4 fluxes increased over time following permafrost collapse, and the CH4 fluxes significantly increased 2 to 10 times in the exposed area compared with that in the control area. Soil temperature, moisture, and nutrient availability exerted the most controls over the carbon emission during permafrost collapse. This study provides the patterns of carbon loss and emissions in different permafrost collapse landscapes, which will provide deep insights and reliable data for future prediction of the abrupt thawing of permafrost-carbon feedback.
In northern high latitudes, rapid warming is set to amplify carbon-climate feedbacks by enhancing permafrost thaw and biogeochemical transformation of large amounts of soil organic carbon. However, between 30 % and 80 % of permafrost soil organic carbon is considered to be stabilized by geochemical interactions with the soil mineral pool and thus less susceptible to be emitted as greenhouse gases. Quantification of the nature of and controls on mineral-organic carbon interactions is needed to better constrain permafrost-carbon-climate feed-backs, particularly in ice-rich environments resulting in rapid thaw and development of thermokarst landforms. On sloping terrain, mass wasting features called retrogressive thaw slumps are amongst the most dynamic forms of thermokarst. These multi-decadal disturbances grow due to ablation of an ice-rich headwall, and their enlargement due to warming of the Arctic is mobilizing vast stores of previously frozen materials. Here, we investigate headwall profiles of seven retrogressive thaw slumps and sediments displaced from these mass wasting features from the Peel Plateau, western Canadian Arctic. The disturbances varied in their headwall height (2 to 25 m) and affected land surface area ( 30 ha). We present total and water extractable mineral element concentrations, mineralogy, and mineral-organic carbon interactions in the headwall layers (active layer, permafrost materials above an early Holocene thaw unconformity, and Pleistocene-aged permafrost tills) and in displaced material (suspended sediments in runoff and material accumulated on the debris tongue). Our data show that the main mechanism of organic carbon stabilization through mineral-organic carbon interactions within the headwall is the complexation with metals (mainly iron), which stabilizes 30 +/- 15 % of the total organic carbon pool with higher concentrations in near-surface layers compared to deep permafrost. In the displaced material, this proportion drops to 18 +/- 5 %. In addition, we estimate that up to 12 +/- 5 % of the total organic carbon is stabilized by associations to poorly crystalline iron oxides, with no significant difference be-tween near-surface layers, deep permafrost and displaced material. Our findings suggest that the organic carbon interacting with the sediment mineral pool in slump headwalls is preserved in the material mobilized by slumping and displaced as debris. Overall, up to 32 +/- 6 % of the total organic carbon displaced by retrogressive thaw slumps is stabilized by organo-mineral interactions in this region. This indicates that organo-mineral in-teractions play a significant role in the preservation of organic carbon in the material displaced from retro-gressive thaw slumps over years to decades after their development resulting in decadal to centennial scale sequestration of this retrogressive thaw slump-mobilized organic carbon interacting with the soil mineral pool.
The thawing of permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) leads to more frequent occurrences of thaw slump (TS), which have significant impacts on local ecosystems, carbon cycles, and infrastructure development. Ac-curate recognition of TS would help in understanding its occurrence and evolution. Machine learning capabilities for TS recognition are still not fully exploited. We systematically evaluate the performance of machine learning models for TS recognition from unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and propose an ensemble learning object-based model for TS recognition (EOTSR). The EOTSR has the following advantages: 1) pioneering the introduction of spatial information to assist in recognition; 2) the misclassification of recognition models is improved by object -based technology; and 3) attempting to integrate the strengths of different machine learning models to obtain a recognition accuracy no less than that of commonly used deep learning models. The results show that object -based technology is more suitable for TS recognition than pixel-based technology. Recursive feature elimina-tion (RFE)-based feature selection proves that texture and geometry are effective complements to TS recognition. Among the improved object-based machine learning models, support vector machine (SVM) has the highest recognition accuracy, with an overall accuracy of 93.06 %. McNemar's test proves that EOTSR significantly improves TS recognition compared to a single model and achieves an overall accuracy of 97.32 %. The EOTSR model provides an effective recognition method for the increasingly frequent TS events in the permafrost regions of the QTP, and can produce label data for deep learning models based on satellite imagery.
Landslides induced by freeze-thaw processes on grasslands are one of the major geohazards, and their scale and frequency are increasing as the global warms. Freeze-thaw induced landslides degrade surface vegetation and soil properties, reduce biodiversity, intensify landscape fragmentation, and lead to losses in economy, human and animal lives. Despite substantial progress in research on landslides, there has been little study focused on how ground freeze-thaw events affect landslides. By critically analyzing previous studies, this paper proposes a conceptual framework for the forms and types, development, dominant factors, monitoring techniques, and impact mechanisms of freeze-thaw induced landslides. Landslides are controlled by soil characteristics and topographic slope, which are major intrinsic determinants. Increased rainfall, rising temperatures, and thickening active layer due to climate change are all direct drivers of freeze-thaw induced landslides. Vegetation conditions, animal behavior interference, and wind erosion all affect the occurrence and development process of landslides by modifying vegetation cover, soil physical and chemical properties, and structure. Currently, landslide monitoring techniques have evolved rapidly with improved efficiency and accuracy, but with only few applications for freeze-thaw induced landslides. There are a variety of prediction models for landslides, but few consider freeze-thaw effects and lack field validation. The new perspective on the occurring types and dominant factors enhances theoretical understanding of the formation mechanisms, which helps further monitor and analysis of freeze-thaw induced landslides. Future studies should concentrate on the coupling mechanism of multiple factors and the development of an accurate prediction system, which will greatly benefit the understanding and early detection of freeze-thaw induced landslides.
Thaw slumps can lead to considerable carbon loss in permafrost regions, while the loss of components from two major origins, i.e., microbial and plant-derived carbon, during this process remains poorly understood. Here, we provide direct evidence that microbial necromass carbon is a major component of lost carbon in a retrogressive permafrost thaw slump by analyzing soil organic carbon (SOC), biomarkers (amino sugars and lignin phenols), and soil environmental variables in a typical permafrost thaw slump in the Tibetan Plateau. The retrogressive thaw slump led to a similar to 61% decrease in SOC and a similar to 25% SOC stock loss. As evident in the levels of amino sugars (average of 55.92 +/- 18.79 mg g-1 of organic carbon, OC) and lignin phenols (average of 15.00 +/- 8.05 mg g-1 OC), microbial-derived carbon (microbial necromass carbon) was the major component of the SOC loss, accounting for similar to 54% of the SOC loss in the permafrost thaw slump. The variation of amino sugars was mainly related to the changes in soil moisture, pH, and plant input, while changes in lignin phenols were mainly related to the changes in soil moisture and soil bulk density.
The decomposition of thawing permafrost organic matter (OM) to the greenhouse gases (GHG) carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane forms a positive feedback to global climate change. Data on in situ GHG fluxes from thawing permafrost OM are scarce and OM degradability is largely unknown, causing high uncertainties in the permafrost-carbon climate feedback. We combined in situ CO2 and methane flux measurements at an abrupt permafrost thaw feature with laboratory incubations and dynamic modeling to quantify annual CO2 release from thawing permafrost OM, estimate its in situ degradability and evaluate the explanatory power of incubation experiments. In July 2016 and 2019, CO2 fluxes ranged between 0.24 and 2.6 g CO2-C m(-2) d(-1). Methane fluxes were low, which coincided with the absence of active methanogens in the Pleistocene permafrost. CO2 fluxes were lower three years after initial thaw after normalizing these fluxes to thawed carbon, indicating the depletion of labile carbon. Higher CO2 fluxes from thawing Pleistocene permafrost than from Holocene permafrost indicate OM preservation for millennia and give evidence that microbial activity in the permafrost was not substantial. Short-term incubations overestimated in situ CO2 fluxes but underestimated methane fluxes. Two independent models simulated median annual CO2 fluxes of 160 and 184 g CO2-C m(-2) from the thaw slump, which include 25%-31% CO2 emissions during winter. Annual CO2 fluxes represent 0.8% of the carbon pool thawed in the surface soil. Our results demonstrate the potential of abrupt thaw processes to transform the tundra from carbon neutral into a substantial GHG source.