The ongoing permafrost degradation in the Three-River Source Region (TRSR) poses serious threats to ecosystems, water resources, and infrastructure projects. As the China Water Tower and a vital barrier for the high-altitude ecological security of China, the TRSR is particularly vulnerable to such changes. The extent and severity of permafrost degradation are primarily governed by heat transfer dynamics, with soil thermal conductivity (STC) playing a crucial role in regulating thermal equilibrium. However, research on STC is hindered by insufficient in-situ measurements. To address this gap, we conducted in-situ measurements of STC at soil depths of 0-40 cm across 58 plots at 12 sites in the TRSR (244 records) during July and August 2023. The driving mechanisms influencing STC variations were further analyzed through laboratory experiments in September and October 2023. Spatially, STC increases from west to east and vertically with soil depth. Control experiments revealed that STC at negative temperatures is markedly higher than that at positive temperatures and increases with volumetric moisture content, particularly in inorganic soils, sand and loamy sand. This effect is more pronounced at subzero temperatures. Meanwhile, our results show that an artificial neural network model (R-2 = 0.78, p < 0.0001) incorporating ten measured soil physical parameters, outperforms traditional theoretical and empirical models in predicting STC. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of permafrost formation, evolution, and its responses to climate change in the TRSR.

Permafrost and its spatiotemporal variation considerably influence the surface and sub-surface hydrological processes, biogeochemical cycles, fauna and flora growth and cold region engineering projects in the Three-River Source Region (TRSR), Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. However, the dynamics of permafrost over a relatively long term duration (e.g. >100 years) in the TRSR is not well quantified. Thus, the spatial and temporal variations of the temperature at the top of the perennially frozen/unfrozen ground (TTOP), active layer thickness (ALT) in permafrost regions and the maximum depth of frost penetration (MDFP) in the seasonally frozen ground of the TRSR during 1901-2020 were simulated using the TTOP model and Stefan equation driven by the widely used reanalysis Climatic Research Unit 4.05 dataset. Results revealed that the permafrost in the TRSR over the past 120 years did not degrade monotonically but experienced considerable fluctuations in area with the decadal oscillations of climate warming and cooling: shrinking from 263.9 x 103 km2 in the 1900s to 233.3 x 103 km2 in the 1930s, expanding from 232.3 x 103 km2 in the 1940s to 260.9 x 103 km2 in the 1970s and shrinking again from 254.1 x 103 km2 in the 1980s to 228.9 x 103 km2 in the 2010s. The regional average TTOP increased from -1.34 & PLUSMN; 2.74 & DEG;C in the 1910s to -0.48 & PLUSMN; 2.69 & DEG;C in the 2010s, demonstrating the most noticeable change for the extremely stable permafrost (TTOP 3.0 m by 12% from 1901 to 2020. Notably, minor changes were observed for the regional average MDFP, probably due to the increase in the area proportion of MDFP 3.5 m (owing to the transformation of permafrost to seasonally frozen ground) by 7.39% and 4.77%, respectively. These findings can facilitate an in-depth understanding of permafrost dynamics and thus provide a scientific reference for eco-environment protection and sustainable development under climate change in the TRSR

The Three-River Source Region (TRSR) of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is regarded as the Chinese water tower. Climate warming and the associated degradation of permafrost might change the water cycle and affect the alpine vegetation growth in the TRSR. However, the quantitative changes in the water budget and their impacts on the vegetation in the TRSR are poorly understood. In this study, the spatial-temporal changes in the hydrological variables and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during 2003-2014 were investigated using multiple satellite data and a remote sensing energy balance model. The results indicated that precipitation showed an increasing trend at a rate of 14.0 mm 10 a(-1), and evapotranspiration (ET) showed a slight decreasing trend. The GRACE-derived total water storage (TWS) change presented a significant increasing trend at a rate of 35.1 mm a(-1). The change in groundwater (GW) which showed an increasing trend at a rate of 18.5 mm a(-1), was estimated by water budget. The time lag of the GRACE-TWS that was influenced by precipitation was more obviously than was the GLDAS-SM(Soil Moisture) change. The vegetation in the TRSR was greening during the study period, and the accumulation of the NDVI increased rapidly after 2008. The effect of total TWS and GLDAS-SM on vegetation was considerably more than that the effects of other factors in this region. It was concluded that the hydrological cycle had obviously changed and that more soil water was transferred into the GW since the aquiclude changed due to climate warming. The increasing area and number of lakes and the thickening of the active layer in the permafrost area led to the greater infiltration of surface water into the groundwater, which resulted in increased water storage. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.