Frozen soil, covering most of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), critically influences land surface and climate simulations. Although some studies have made advancements in simulations, further investigation into the distinct mechanisms underlying relevant parameterization schemes remains essential. This study compares two frozen soil permeability schemes in Noah-MP (NY06: high-permeability; Koren99: low-permeability) to elucidate their distinct hydrological mechanisms. Although significant disparities exist in the simulation of soil water and ice content between the two schemes in permafrost regions, the simulated soil water content in the shallow layer exhibits similarity. Their underlying physical processes behind this similarity differ fundamentally: Koren99 relies on cross-seasonal ice melt recharge, whereas NY06 depends more on current-season precipitation and snowmelt. With greater soil depth, soil water differences progressively propagate downward, amplifying variations in hydraulic conductivity, and soil memory effects become increasingly dominant. Meanwhile, the Koren99 scheme more effectively impedes bottom-up melting water transport than top-down effect. However, the aforementioned disparities are not apparent in seasonally frozen soil. Notable disparities also exist in simulated evapotranspiration and surface runoff over permafrost regions, particularly during the summer months. This research investigates the differences in water transport within frozen soil over the TP, elucidates the distinct hydrological mechanisms underlying different frozen soil permeability schemes, and highlights that similar soil hydrothermal simulations are associated with different physical processes, leading to varying degrees of effectiveness in soil memory. Furthermore, this research elucidates the dual role of soil ice (permeability restriction and water storage) in hydrological processes, providing a theoretical basis for improving frozen soil parameterization.

Permafrost degradation on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has triggered widespread retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs), affecting hydrology, carbon sequestration and infrastructure stability. To date, there is still a lack of long-term monitoring of RTSs across the TP, the thaw dynamics and comprehensive driving factors remain unclear. Here, using time-series Landsat imagery and change detection algorithm, we identified RTSs on permafrost regions of the TP from 1986 to 2020. Existing RTSs inventories and high-resolution historical imagery were employed to verify the identified results, the temporal validation of RTSs disturbance pixels demonstrated a high accuracy. In the study area, a total of 3537 RTSs were identified, covering a total area of 5997 ha, representing a 26-fold increase since 1986, and 69.2 % of RTSs formed since 2010. Most RTSs are located on gentle slope (4-12 degrees) at elevations between 4500 m and 5300 m, with a tendency to form in alpine grassland and alpine meadow. Annual variations in RTSs area exhibited a significant positive correlation with minimum air temperature, mean land surface temperature, and annual thawing index, while it showing a significant negative correlation with the decrease in downward shortwave radiation. Spatially, RTSs were more common in areas with higher soil water content and shallower active layer. Landsat imagery captured the vast majority of RTSs on the TP and revealed interannual disturbance details, but the 30 m resolution remains inadequate for delineating the refined boundaries of some micro-scale (< 0.18 ha) RTSs. Detected RTSs disturbances on the TP will aid in hazard management and carbon feedback assessments, and our findings provide novel insights into the impacts of climate change and permafrost environments on RTSs formation.

Study area: The Binggou and adjacent Yakou catchments in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Study focus: Hillslope flow paths were studied using hydrochemical data of various water types in the spring snowmelt and summer rainfall periods based on hydrochemical tracers and endmember mixing analysis. New hydrological insights for the study region: End-member mixing analysis confirmed the dominance of surface and near-surface runoff during the spring snowmelt. Specifically, the spring Binggou stream water had 61 % surface runoff, 22 % shallow groundwater, and 17 % near-surface runoff. The spring Yakou stream water had 64 % snowmelt, 25.5 % near-surface runoff, and 10.5 % riparian saturated soil water at a depth of 20 cm. The application of end-member mixing analysis failed in the summer rainfall period, and shallow subsurface flow contributed the most to the streamflow (similar to 100 %). The average acid-neutralizing capacity of the spring Yakou stream water was 611 mu eq/L, increasing to 841 mu eq/L in the summer, and for the Binggou stream water, the values were 747 mu eq/L and 1084 mu eq/L, respectively, indicating that the thawed soil layers had a significant buffering effect on stream water chemistry. This study revealed seasonal shifts in flow paths and stream sources, with a transition from surface to subsurface flow influenced by meteorological conditions and the active layer thickness. Future climate change may enhance subsurface flow recharge, leading to less diluted streamflow and stronger water-soil interactions.

Ice records provide a qualitative rather than a quantitative indication of the trend of climate change. Using the bulk aerodynamic method and degree day model, this study quantified ice mass loss attributable to sublimation/evaporation (S/E) and meltwater on the basis of integrated observations (1960-2006) of glacier-related and atmospheric variables in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. During 1961-2005, the average annual mass loss in the ice core was 95.33 +/- 20.56 mm w.e. (minimum: 78.97 mm w.e. in 1967, maximum: 146.67 mm w.e. in 2001), while the average ratio of the revised annual ice accumulation was 21.2 +/- 7.7% (minimum: 11.0% in 1992, maximum 44.8% in 2000). A quantitative formula expressing the relationship between S/E and air temperature at the monthly scale was established, which could be extended to estimation of S/E changes of other glaciers in other regions. The elevation effect on alpine precipitation determined using revised ice accumulation and instrumental data was found remarkable. This work established a method for quantitative assessment of the temporal variation in ice core mass loss, and advanced the reconstruction of long-term precipitation at high elevations. Importantly, the formula established for reconstruction of S/E from temperature time series data could be used in other regions.

In the context of global warming, understanding the impact of thaw slump on soil hydrothermal processes and its responses to climate is essential for protecting engineering facilities in cold regions. This study aimed to investigate the effect of thaw slump development on active layer soil. We considered the early thaw slump development in the Tibetan Plateau as research object and conducted long-term monitoring of soil hydrothermal activity in the active layer of various parts of the landslide and the regional meteorology. The results showed that thaw slump development shortened the freezing and thawing time of the active layer, increased the freezing and thawing rates of the shallow soil (10-20 cm), and enhanced the heat exchange between the active layer soil and the atmosphere and the heat transfer between the soils. The heat-exchange efficiency of the active layer, from largest to smallest, was headwall > collapsed area > unaffected area (bottom of the slope) > unaffected area (top of the slope). Furthermore, thaw slump development lowered the water storage of the active layer prof ile and weakened the dynamic response of soil water to precipitation. The events of soil water responses and soil water increments were smaller in the landslide area than in the unaffected area. During a co-precipitation event, the overall soil water storage increment (SWSI) of the profile was significantly smaller in the landslide area than in the unaffected area (P < 0.05), with an SWSI of 2.04 mm in the headwall and 1.77 mm in the collapsed area. In addition, thaw slump development altered the mechanism of soil water transport driven by soil temperature changes, which affected soil water redistribution of profile. The study gives ecohydrology-related research in cold climates a scientific foundation, thereby guiding the construction and maintenance of infrastructure projects.

Lakes are commonly accepted as a sensitive indicator of regional climate change, including the Tibetan Plateau (TP). This study took the Ranwu Lake, located in the southeastern TP, as the research object to investigate the relationship between the lake and regional hydroclimatological regimes. The well-known Budyko framework was utilized to explore the relationship and its causes. The results showed air temperature, evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration in the Ranwu Lake Basin generally increased, while precipitation, soil moisture, and glacier area decreased. The Budyko space indicated that the basin experienced an obviously drying phase first, and then a slightly wetting phase. An overall increase in lake area appears inconsistent with the drying phase of the basin climate. The inconsistency is attributable to the significant expansion of proglacial lakes due to glacial melting, possibly driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Our findings should be helpful for understanding the complicated relationships between lakes and climate, and beneficial to water resources management under changing climates, especially in glacier basins.

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) covers the largest regions under low- and mid-latitude permafrost. The evolution of permafrost has significantly affected the hydrology, biogeochemistry, and infrastructure of Asia. However, model reconstructions of long-term permafrost evolution with high accuracy and reliability are insufficient. Here, spatial changes in mean annual ground temperature at the depth where the annual amplitude is zero (MAGT) on the TP since 1981 were modeled and validated based on temperature records from 155 boreholes, and future changes were predicted under scenarios from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). The results indicated that the MAGT on the TP was approximately 1.5 degrees C (2010 - 2018), and the corresponding permafrost extent on the TP is estimated to be approximately 1.03 x 106 km2, which is projected to decrease to 0.77 x 106, 0.50 x 106, 0.30 x 106, and 0.17 x 106 km2 under the scenarios of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively, by 2100. As predicted in the SSP585 scenario, permafrost is predicted to largely disappear from many basins of major Asian rivers, such as the Yarlung Zangpo-Brahmaputra, NuSalween, and Lancang-Mekong Rivers, between 2041 and 2060, followed by the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers between 2061 and 2080. Moreover, the original stable permafrost in the West Kunlun Mountains will change to transitional and unstable conditions. Our study offers comprehensive datasets of year-to-year ground temperatures and permafrost extent maps for the TP, which can serve as a fundamental resource for further investigations on the hydrogeology, engineering geology, ecology, and geochemistry of the TP.

This study employs the Global Navigation Satellite System-Interferometric Reflectometry (GNSS-IR) technique, along with in situ hydrothermal data, to explore the details and mechanisms of permafrost ground surface deformation in the hinterland Tibetan Plateau. Through analyzing GNSS data collected from November 2021 to April 2024, seasonal deformation of up to approximately 5 cm, caused by active layer freeze-thaw cycles, was identified. Additionally, more than 2 years of continuous monitoring revealed a clear ground subsidence rate of 2.7 cm per year due to permafrost thawing. We compared the GNSS-IR monitored deformation with simulated deformation using in situ soil moisture and temperature profiles at 5-220 cm depth and found that the correlation reached 0.9 during the active-layer thawing and freezing period; we also observed that following an exceptionally thawing season, the subsequent thawing season experiences notably greater thaw subsidence. Furthermore, we analyzed the differences in GNSS-IR monitoring results with and without the inclusion of Beidou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) signals, and found that the inclusion of BDS signals reduced the standard deviation of GNSS-IR results by an average of 0.24 mm on snow-free periods, but increased by an average of 0.12 mm during the snow cover periods. This may be due to the longer wavelength of the BDS signal, which exhibits greater diffraction through snow and reduces signal reflectivity compared to other satellite systems. The research results demonstrate the potential and ability of continuous GNSS-IR ground surface deformation monitoring in revealing and exploring the hydrothermal processes within permafrost under climate change.

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) has undergone significant warming, wetting, and greening (WWG) over decades, alongside substantial alterations in hydrological regimes. These changes present great challenges for safeguarding water resources and ecosystems downstream. However, the lack of field observation and systematic research has obscured our understanding of how hydrological processes respond to the combined influences of climate-permafrost-vegetation. This study focuses on the source regions of the Yangtze River, one of the highest permafrost-covered basins on the QTP, and employs a process-based hydrological model to quantify the effects of WWG on hydrological processes. We show that the increasing precipitation dominates subsurface runoff changes while rising temperature primarily affects surface runoff changes by reducing the frozen duration (-52 days/century) and thickening the active layer (+2.4 cm/year). Greening vegetation primarily affects transpiration and interception evaporation. Warming, wetting, and greening will cause a transition in runoff dynamics from surface runoff dominance to subsurface runoff dominance in permafrost basins, and reduce the risk of both flooding and water shortage indicated by the decreased maximum low flow duration and maximum high flow duration of 11.0 and 5.0 days/year, respectively. Moreover, cold permafrost regions exhibit a greater propensity for generating runoff, as indicated by a higher annual increase in runoff coefficient (0.005/year) and total runoff (4.81 mm/year), compared to warm permafrost regions (with increase of 0.001/year and 1.20 mm/year, respectively). These findings enhance the understanding of hydrological changes due to WWG and provide insights for water resources management in permafrost regions under climate change.

Rapid and long-runout landslides characterized by their high speed, long distance mobility, and huge capacity and volume would pose significant threats to infrastructure and life safety. In this study, a rapid and long-runout landslide that occurred in the Bingda village of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, which was triggered by heavy rainfall in June 2017, was preliminarily investigated. On the basis of detailed field surveys, high-resolution satellite imagery analysis, and laboratory tests, the morphological and sedimentological features of the landslide were described, and the formation mechanism of hummocky landforms and its insight into the extraordinary movement of the Bingda landslide was deduced. The field investigation and satellite imagery analysis showed that there were nearly 200 hummocks, mostly with normal circular bases and with a height of similar to 0.1 m-7.5 m, distributed in the transfer and accumulation areas of the landslide. The height and number density of the hummocks decreased away from the transfer area to the accumulation area and displayed higher heights at the outer bends of the gully channel than that at the inner bends of it. The characteristics of the spatial distribution and the composition of hummocks indicated that significant generation and dissipation of pore-water pressure within the loose and saturated silty clay layer in the runout path was the most probable reason for the formation of hummocky landforms. This study also provided insights into the hypermobility mechanisms of the Bingda landslide, suggesting that this landslide began with the sliding failure of the weathered colluvium in the source area, and then the landslide debris traveled into the channel and impacted sudden undrained loading and rapid shearing to the underlying silty clay layers in the gully. These processes generated pore-water pressure and reduced the effective stress within the soil particles, resulting in a decrease in the frictional resistance in the substrate, finally facilitating the rapid and long-runout movement of the landslide.