Freezing and thawing indices (FI and TI) are commonly used as indicators for climate change assessment and permafrost extent estimation in cold regions. In this study, based on the meteorological daily data (1978-2017) among 34 meteorological stations in Tibet, the temperature in space has been interpolated and FI and TI have been calculated. Finally, spatiotemporal variations have been analyzed and the permafrost area has been estimated. The results showed the mean annual of FI and TI in Tibet are 1241.36 and 1290.22 degrees C.day, respectively. A significant downward trend in freezing index (FI) and an upward trend in thawing index (TI) have been reported in the time series, in against, analyzing the spatial distribution showed there is an increasing trend from southeast to northwest for FI while TI was decreased gradually in the same region in Tibet. This research indicates that altitude has a significant influence on the change of FI and TI. With the increase of altitude, FI decreased and TI increased more significantly. The permafrost area was estimated at about 0.59 x 10(6) km(2) in Tibet.

The active layer thickness (ALT) in permafrost regions, which affects water and energy exchange, is a key variable for assessing hydrological processes, cold-region engineering, and climate change. In this study, the authors analyzed the variation trends and relative changes of simulated ALTs using the Chinese Academy of Sciences Land Surface Model (CAS-LSM) and the Chinese Academy of Sciences Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model, gridpoint version 3 (CAS-FGOALS-g3). Firstly, the simulated ALTs produced by CAS-LSM were shown to be reasonable by comparing them with Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring observations. Then, the authors simulated the ALTs from 1979 to 2014, and their relative changes across the entire Northern Hemisphere from 2015 to 2100. It is shown that the ALTs have an increasing trend. From 1979 to 2014, the average ALTs and their variation trends over all permafrost regions were 1.08 m and 0.33 cm yr(-1), respectively. The relative changes of the ALTs ranged from 1% to 58%, and the average relative change was 10.9%. The variation trends of the ALTs were basically consistent with the variation trends of the 2-m air temperature. By 2100, the relative changes of ALTs are predicted to be 10.3%, 14.6%, 30.1%, and 51%, respectively, under the four considered hypothetical climate scenarios (SSP-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). This study indicates that climate change has a substantial impact on ALTs, and our results can help in understanding the responses of the ALTs of permafrost due to climate change.

Complex interactions between the land surface and atmosphere and the exchange of water and energy have a significant impact on climate. The Tibetan Plateau is the highest plateau in the world and is known as Earth's third pole''. Because of its unique natural geographical and climatic characteristics, it directly affects China's climate, as well as the world's climate, through its thermal and dynamic roles. In this study, the BCCCSM1.1 model for the simulation results of CMIP5 is used to analyze the variation of the land surface processes of the Tibetan Plateau and the possible linkages with temperature change. The analysis showed that, from 1850 to 2005, as temperature increases, the model shows surface downward short-wave radiation, upward short-wave radiation, and net radiation to decrease, and long-wave radiation to increase. Meanwhile, latent heat flux increases, whereas sensible heat flux decreases. Except for sensible heat flux, the correlation coefficients of land surface fluxes with surface air temperature are all significant at the 99 % significance level. The model results indicate rising temperature to cause the ablation of ice (or snow) cover and increasing leaf area index, with reduced snowfall, together with a series of other changes, resulting in increasing upward and downward long-wave radiation and changes in soil moisture, evaporation, latent heat flux, and water vapor in the air. However, rising temperature also reduces the difference between the surface and air temperature and the surface albedo, which lead to further reductions of downward and upward short-wave radiation. The surface air temperature in winter increases by 0.93 degrees C/100 years, whereas the change is at a minimum (0.66 degrees C/100 years) during the summer. Downward short-wave and net radiation demonstrate the largest decline in the summer, whereas upward short-wave radiation demonstrates its largest decline during the spring. Downward short-wave radiation is predominantly affected by air humidity, followed by the impact of total cloud fraction. The average downward short-wave and net radiation attain their maxima in May, whereas for upward short-wave radiation the maximum is in March. The model predicts surface temperature to increase under all the different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, with the rise under RCP8.5 reaching 5.1 degrees C/100 years. Long-wave radiation increases under the different emission scenarios, while downward short-wave radiation increases under the low-and medium-emission concentration pathways, but decreases under RCP8.5. Upward short-wave radiation reduces under the various emission scenarios, and the marginal growth decreases as the emission concentration increases.