Exploring alpine vegetation dynamics and its driving factors help to predict changes in hydrothermal circulations at high elevations in the future. Currently, there is a lack of systematic research on this topic in the permafrost regions at a basin scale. Spatiotemporal variations of vegetation pattern and growth estimated from satellite remote sensing images at a 30 m spatial resolution on the Google Earth Engine cloud platform were investigated in the Shule River headwater region from 2000 to 2021. The results showed shrinking trends in alpine grassland (AG) and wetland (AW) area, while an expanding trend in alpine desert (AD) area. AD moved to lower altitudes and occupied AG and AW area, possibly owing to mountain permafrost degradation and extreme precipitation. Vegetation patches became fragmented and complex, reflected by increases in patch number and shape index. Vegetation growth, as approximated by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), increased significantly in 42 % of the vegetated area (p < 0.05), particularly in river valleys. In addition, NDVI was negatively correlated with solar radiation over 30 % of the vegetated area (p < 0.05). At the regional scale, vegetation NDVI was positively correlated with root-zone soil moisture and grazing intensity (p < 0.05). The findings suggested that AG and AW at their upper limit of distribution were vulnerable to soil erosion, and the inter-annual variation of vegetation growth was affected by soil moisture and grazing. Moreover, future climate warming may cause alpine vegetation decline by increasing active layer thickness in the absence of adequate precipitation supply.

Intra-annual variability of tree-ring oxygen stable isotopes (delta O-18) can record seasonal climate variability and a tree's ecophysiological response to it. Variability of sub-annual tree-ring delta O-18 maxima and minima, which usually occur in different parts of the growing season, may exhibit different climatic signals and can help in understanding past seasonal moisture conditions, especially in Asian monsoon areas. We developed minimum and maximum tree-ring delta O-18 series based on sub-annual tree-ring delta O-18 measurements ofPinus massonianaat a humid site in southeastern China. We found that interannual variability in minimum tree-ring delta O-18 is primarily controlled by the July-September soil water supply and source water delta O-18, whereas the maximum latewood tree-ring delta O-18 is primarily controlled by the relative humidity (RH) in October. The maximum of variability of earlywood tree-ring delta O-18 records the RH of October of the previous year. We used minimum and maximum tree-ring delta O-18 to develop two reconstructions (1900-2014) of seasonal moisture availability. The summer soil water supply (July-September self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index) and the RH in fall show contrasting trends, which may be related to late-growing seasonal warming leading to a high vapor capacity and high atmospheric moisture. Our findings are valuable for research that aims to explore seasonal moisture changes under anthropogenic climate change and the ecological implications of such contrasting trends.

Changes in the cryosphere caused by global warming are expected to alter the hydrological cycle, with consequences to freshwater availability for humans and ecosystems. Here, we combine data assimilation, cross correlation analysis, simulation techniques, and the conceptual steady-state Budyko framework to examine the driving mechanisms of historical hydrological changes at annual, seasonal, and monthly scales. We focus on two southern Siberian basins with different landscape properties: the semi-arid Selenga, characterized by discontinuous, sporadic, and isolated permafrost; and the boreal Aldan, which is underlain by continuous permafrost. Our results indicate that the two basins show divergent trends in river runoff over the period 1954-2013. In Selenga, runoff exhibits a significant decreasing trend (-1.3 km(3)/10yrs, p<0.05), whereas a remarkable increasing trend (4.4 km3/10yrs, p<0.05) occurs in Aldan. Given the negligible trends in precipitation over both basins, we attribute these contrasting changes to different impacts from warming-induced permafrost degradation. The Selenga basin, which is dominated by lateral degradation (i.e., decreasing permafrost extent), suffers from severe water loss via the enhanced infiltration of water that was previously stored close to the surface. This leads to a water-deficit surface condition. In the Aldan basin, in contrast, vertical degradation prevails: the thickened active layer is still underlain by a frozen layer with low permeability that sustains water rich surface conditions. Furthermore, summer runoff shows contrasting oscillations, with wet-dry-wet-dry and dry-wet-dry-wet state evolutions in the Selenga and Aldan basins, respectively. We attribute such variabilities to the seesaw-like oscillations in summer precipitation associated with the propagation of Rossby wave trains across the Eurasian continent. We also find that warming-induced permafrost degradation over the 30-year period from 1984 to 2013 has led to strong regime shifts in river runoff in both basins. Our study highlights the importance of examining the mechanisms that drive changes in water availability from an integrated land hydrology-atmosphere system perspective.

We analyse an ensemble of statistically downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs) to investigate future water availability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) of Pakistan for the time horizons when the global and/or regional warming levels cross Paris Agreement (PA) targets. The GCMs data is obtained from the 5th Phase of Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Based on the five best performing GCMs, we note that global 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C warming thresholds are projected in 2026 and 2047 under RCP4.5 and 2022 and 3036 under RCP8.5 respectively while these thresholds are reached much earlier over Pakistan i.e. 2016 and 2030 under RCP4.5 and 2012 and 2025 under RCP8.5 respectively. Interestingly, the GCMs with the earliest emergence at the global scale are not necessarily the ones with the earliest emergence over Pakistan, highlighting spatial non-linearity in GCMs response. The emergence of 2.0 degrees C warming at global scale across 5 GCMs ranges from 2031 (CCSM4) to 2049 (NorESM) under RCP8.5. Precipitation generally exhibits a progressive increasing trend with stronger changes at higher warming or radiative forcing levels. Hydrological simulations representing the historical, 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global and region warming time horizons indicate a robust but seasonally varying increase in the inflows. The highest inflows in the baseline and future are witnessed in July. However, the highest future increase in inflows is projected in October under RCP4.5 (37.99% and 65.11% at 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C) and in April under RCP8.5 (37% and 62.05% at 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C). These hydrological changes are driven by increases in the snow and glacial melt contribution, which are more pronounced at 2.0 degrees C warming level. These findings should help for effective water management in Pakistan over the coming decades. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Tibetan Plateau has the largest expanse of high-elevation permafrost in the world, and it is experiencing climate warming that may jeopardize the functioning of its alpine ecosystems. Many studies have focused on the effects of climate warming on vegetation production and diversity on the Plateau, but their disparate results have hindered a comprehensive, regional understanding. From a synthesis of twelve warming experiments across the Plateau, we found that warming increased aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and vegetation height at sites with permafrost, but ANPP decreased with warming at non-permafrost sites. Aboveground net primary production responded more negatively to warming under drier conditions, due to both annual drought conditions and warming-induced soil moisture loss. Decreases in species diversity with warming were also larger at sites with permafrost. These results support the emerging understanding that water plays a central role in the functioning of cold environments and suggest that as ecosystems cross a threshold from permafrost to non-permafrost systems, ANPP will decrease across a greater proportion of the Tibetan Plateau. This study also highlights the future convergence of challenges from permafrost degradation and grassland desertification, requiring new collaborations among these currently distinct research and stakeholder groups.

Arctic terrestrial ecosystems are heterogeneous because of the strong influences of microtopography, soil moisture and snow accumulation on vegetation distribution. The interaction between local biotic and abiotic factors and global climate patterns will influence species responses to climate change. Salix arctica (Arctic willow) is a structuring species, ubiquitous and widespread, and as such is one of the most important shrub species in the High Arctic. In this study, we measured S. arctica reproductive effort, early establishment, survival and growth in the Zackenberg valley, north-east Greenland. We sampled four plant communities that varied with respect to snow conditions, soil moisture, nutrient content and plant composition. We found large variability in reproductive effort and success with total catkin density ranging from 0.6 to 66 catkins/m(2) and seedling density from <1 to 101 seedlings/m(2). There were also major differences in crown area increment (4-23 cm(2)/year) and stem radial growth (40-74 mu m/year). The snowbed community, which experienced a recent reduction in snow cover, supported young populations with high reproductive effort, establishment and growth. Soil nutrient content and herbivore activity apparently did not strongly constrain plant reproduction and growth, but competition by Cassiope tetragona and low soil moisture may inhibit performance. Our results show that local environmental factors, such as snow accumulation, have a significant impact on tundra plant response to climate change and will affect the understanding of regional vegetation response to climate change.