A scenario-based approach was used to test air and ground response to warming with and without changes to inverted surface lapse rates in four Yukon valleys. Generally, climate warming coupled with weakening of temperature inversions resulted in the greatest increase in air temperature at low elevations. However, ground temperatures at high elevations showed the greatest response to warming and variability between scenarios due to increased connectivity between air and ground. Low elevations showed less of a response to warming and permafrost was largely preserved in these locations. Local models also predicted higher permafrost occurrence compared to a regional permafrost probability model, due to the inclusion of differential surface and thermal offsets. Results show that the spatial warming patterns in these mountains may not follow those predicted in other mountain environments following elevation-dependent warming (EDW). As a result, the concept of EDW should be expanded to become more inclusive of a wider range of possible spatial warming distributions. The purpose of this paper is not to provide exact estimations of warming, but rather to provide hypothetical spatial warming patterns, based on logical predictions of changes to temperature inversion strength, which may not directly follow the distribution projected through EDW.

With ongoing global warming and permafrost thawing, weathering processes will change on the Yukon River, with risks for water quality and ecosystem sustainability. Here, we explore the relationship between weathering processes and permafrost cover using elemental concentration and strontium and lithium isotopic data in the dissolved load of 102 samples collected during the summer across most major tributaries of the Yukon River. The Yukon River basin is dominated by silicate weathering with a high contribution from young volcanic rock units. In glaciated mountainous zones, we observe higher carbonate weathering contribution, low Li/Na ratios and low delta Li-7 values (< 15 parts per thousand & nbsp;). In these areas, the high denudation rate and high supply of fresh minerals associated with alpine glaciers favor congruent silicate weathering, and sulfide oxidation accelerates carbonate weathering. In floodplains covered by continuous permafrost, we observe a high carbonate weathering contribution, relatively high Li/Na ratios, and low delta Li-7 values (~& nbsp;18 parts per thousand). We argue that the minimal water-rock interactions in this setting inhibit silicate weathering and favor congruent weathering of easily weatherable minerals (i.e., carbonates). Conversely, in areas with discontinuous or sporadic permafrost, we observe a dominance of silicate weathering, with higher and more variable Li/Na ratios and high delta Li-7 values (11-33 parts per thousand). In this setting, longer water-rock interactions combined with the high supply of fresh minerals from mountain zones favor more incongruent weathering. The unique history of Pleistocene glaciations on the Yukon River basin also influences weathering processes. Many areas of the basin were never glaciated during the Pleistocene, and rivers draining those regions have higher delta Li-7 values suggesting more incongruent weathering associated with deeper flow paths and longer water residence time in the regolith. Our work underlines that water-rock interactions, including active layer weathering and groundwater inputs, are highly dependent on climate conditions and glacial processes across the Yukon River basin, with key implications for future water quality in this warming basin. Crown Copyright (C) 2022 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.& nbsp;

Floodplains accumulate and store organic carbon (OC) and release OC to rivers, but studies of floodplain soil OC come from small rivers or small spatial extents on larger rivers in temperate latitudes. Warming climate is causing substantial change in geomorphic process and OC fluxes in high latitude rivers. We investigate geomorphic controls on floodplain soil OC concentrations in active-layer mineral sediment in the Yukon Flats, interior Alaska. We characterize OC along the Yukon River and four tributaries in relation to geomorphic controls at the river basin, segment, and reach scales. Average OC concentration within floodplain soil is 2.8% (median = 2.2%). Statistical analyses indicate that OC varies among river basins, among planform types along a river depending on the geomorphic unit, and among geomorphic units. OC decreases with sample depth, suggesting that most OC accumulates via autochthonous inputs from floodplain vegetation. Floodplain and river characteristics, such as grain size, soil moisture, planform, migration rate, and riverine DOC concentrations, likely influence differences among rivers. Grain size, soil moisture, and age of surface likely influence differences among geomorphic units. Mean OC concentrations vary more among geomorphic units (wetlands = 5.1% versus bars = 2.0%) than among study rivers (Dall River = 3.8% versus Teedrinjik River = 2.3%), suggesting that reach-scale geomorphic processes more strongly control the spatial distribution of OC than basin-scale processes. Investigating differences at the basin and reach scale is necessary to accurately assess the amount and distribution of floodplain soil OC, as well as the geomorphic controls on OC.

The Yukon River Basin, underlain by discontinuous permafrost, has experienced a warming climate over the last century that has altered air temperature, precipitation, and permafrost. We investigated a water chemistry database from 1982 to 2014 for the Yukon River and its major tributary, the Tanana River. Significant increases of Ca, Mg, and Na annual flux were found in both rivers. Additionally, SO4 and P annual flux increased in the Yukon River. No annual trends were observed for dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from 2001 to 2014. In the Yukon River, Mg and SO4 flux increased throughout the year, while some of the most positive trends for Ca, Mg, Na, SO4, and P flux occurred during the fall and winter months. Both rivers exhibited positive monthly DOC flux trends for summer (Yukon River) and winter (Tanana River). These trends suggest increased active layer expansion, weathering, and sulfide oxidation due to permafrost degradation throughout the Yukon River Basin.

To better understand the linkage between lake area change, permafrost conditions and intra-annual and inter-annual variability in climate, we explored the temporal and spatial patterns of lake area changes for a 422382-ha study area within Yukon Flats, Alaska using Landsat images of 17 dates between 1984 and 2009. Only closed basin lakes were used in this study. Among the 3529 lakes greater than 1 ha, closed basin lakes accounted for 65% by number and 50% by area. A multiple linear regression model was built to quantify the temporal change in total lake area with consideration of its intra-annual and inter-annual variability. The results showed that 80.7% of lake area variability was attributed to intra-annual and inter-annual variability in local water balance and mean temperature since snowmelt (interpreted as a proxy for seasonal thaw depth). Another 14.3% was associated with long-term change. Among 2280 lakes, 350 lakes shrank, and 103 lakes expanded. The lakes with similar change trends formed distinct clusters, so did the lakes with similar short term intra-annual and inter-annual variability. By analysing potential factors driving lake area changes including evaporation, precipitation, indicators for regional permafrost change, and flooding, we found that ice-jam flooding events were the most likely explanation for the observed temporal pattern. In addition to changes in the frequency of ice jam flooding events, the observed changes of individual lakes may be influenced by local variability in permafrost distributions and/or degradation. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Streamflow characteristics in the Yukon River Basin of Alaska and Canada have changed from 1944 to 2005, and some of the change can be attributed to the two most recent modes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Seasonal, monthly, and annual stream discharge data from 21 stations in the Yukon River Basin were analyzed for trends over the entire period of record, generally spanning 4-6 decades, and examined for differences between the two most recent modes of the PDO: cold-PDO (1944-1975) and warm-PDO (1976-2005) subsets. Between 1944 and 2005, average winter and April flow increased at 15 sites. Observed winter flow increases during the cold-PDO phase were generally limited to sites in the Upper Yukon River Basin. Positive trends in winter flow during the warm-PDO phase broadened to include stations in the Middle and Lower Yukon River drainage basins. Increases in winter streamflow most likely result from groundwater input enhanced by permafrost thawing that promotes infiltration and deeper subsurface flow paths. Increased April flow may be attributed to a combination of greater baseflow (from groundwater increases), earlier spring snowmelt and runoff, and increased winter precipitation, depending on location. Calculated deviations from long-term mean monthly discharges indicate below-average flow in the winter months during the cold PDO and above-average flow in the winter months during the warm PDO. Although not as strong a signal, results also support the reverse response during the summer months: above-average flow during the cold PDO and below-average flow during the warm PDO. Changes in the summer flows are likely an indirect consequence of the PDO, resulting from earlier spring snowmelt runoff and also perhaps increased summer infiltration and storage in a deeper active layer. Annual discharge has remained relatively unchanged in the Yukon River Basin, but a few glacier-fed rivers demonstrate positive trends. which can be attributed to enhanced glacier melting. A positive trend in annual flow during the warm PDO near the mouth of the Yukon River suggests that small increases in flow throughout the Yukon River Basin have resulted in an additive effect manifested in the downstream-most streamflow station. Many of the identified changes in streamflow patterns in the Yukon River Basin show a correlation to the PDO regime shift. This work highlights the importance of considering proximate climate forcings as well as global climate change when assessing hydrologic changes in the Arctic. Published by Elsevier B.V.