Permafrost thaw causes the seasonally thawed active layer to deepen, causing the Arctic to shift toward carbon release as soil organic matter becomes susceptible to decomposition. Ground subsidence initiated by ice loss can cause these soils to collapse abruptly, rapidly shifting soil moisture as microtopography changes and also accelerating carbon and nutrient mobilization. The uncertainty of soil moisture trajectories during thaw makes it difficult to predict the role of abrupt thaw in suppressing or exacerbating carbon losses. In this study, we investigated the role of shifting soil moisture conditions on carbon dioxide fluxes during a 13-year permafrost warming experiment that exhibited abrupt thaw. Warming deepened the active layer differentially across treatments, leading to variable rates of subsidence and formation of thermokarst depressions. In turn, differential subsidence caused a gradient of moisture conditions, with some plots becoming consistently inundated with water within thermokarst depressions and others exhibiting generally dry, but more variable soil moisture conditions outside of thermokarst depressions. Experimentally induced permafrost thaw initially drove increasing rates of growing season gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (R-eco), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) (higher carbon uptake), but the formation of thermokarst depressions began to reverse this trend with a high level of spatial heterogeneity. Plots that subsided at the slowest rate stayed relatively dry and supported higher CO2 fluxes throughout the 13-year experiment, while plots that subsided very rapidly into the center of a thermokarst feature became consistently wet and experienced a rapid decline in growing season GPP, R-eco, and NEE (lower carbon uptake or carbon release). These findings indicate that Earth system models, which do not simulate subsidence and often predict drier active layer conditions, likely overestimate net growing season carbon uptake in abruptly thawing landscapes.

Carbon (C) release from thawing permafrost is potentially the largest climate feedback from terrestrial ecosystems. However, the magnitude of this feedback remains highly uncertain, partly due to the limited understanding of how abrupt permafrost thaw (e.g. permafrost collapse) alters soil organic matter (SOM) quality. Here we employed elemental analysis, stable isotope analysis, biomarker and nuclear magnetic resonance techniques to explore changes in soil C concentration and stock as well as SOM quality following permafrost collapse on the Tibetan Plateau. Our results showed that permafrost collapse resulted in a 21% decrease in soil C concentration and a 32% reduction in C stock of the top 15 cm of soil over 16 years. Moreover, permafrost collapse led to a significant decline in SOM quality: the relative abundance of labile SOM fractions (e.g. carbohydrates) decreased, whereas recalcitrant SOM fractions (e.g. suberin-derived compounds) increased 16 years after collapse. By contrast, the relative abundances of labile and recalcitrant compounds showed no significant differences in the control plots along the thaw sequence. These results demonstrate that permafrost collapse and consequent changes in soil environmental conditions could trigger substantial C release on decadal timescales, implying that abrupt thaw maybe a dominant mechanism exposing soil C to mineralization.