There has been growing interest in the potential of short-lived climate forcer (SLCF) mitigation to reduce near-term global warming. Black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfur dioxide (SO2) are SLCFs which change the Earth's radiative balance directly by affecting radiation, and indirectly by altering cloud properties. We used the ECHAM-HAMMOZ aerosol-climate model to study the radiative forcings due to mitigating the anthropogenic emissions of BC, OC, and SO2 from Chile and Mexico. Limiting our analysis to areas where these emissions had notable effects on both aerosol and clouds, we found that the total radiative forcings of anthropogenic aerosol emissions are different for Chile and Mexico. This was explained by differences in aerosol emissions, orography, and meteorology in these two countries. Especially the radiative forcing for Chilean emissions was influenced by the persistent stratocumulus cloud deck west of Chile. To reduce the uncertainty of our radiative forcing calculations, we nudged the wind and surface pressure toward pre-generated fields. As nudging affects the calculated effective radiative forcing (ERF), we here used the identifier ERFNDG. Our results indicate that the removal of OC and SO2 emissions caused a positive ERFNDG while the removal of BC emissions caused a positive ERFNDG for Chile, but a negative ERFNDG for Mexico. When accounting for co-emission of other aerosol compounds, reducing BC emissions led to positive ERFNDG in both countries. Compared to China, the removal of anthropogenic SO2 emissions in Chile and Mexico caused a much larger global average ERFNDG per emitted unit mass of SO2.

Modeling the aerosol lifecycle in traditional global climate models (GCM) is challenging for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the coarse grid. The multiscale modeling framework (MMF), in which a cloud resolving model replaces conventional parameterizations of cloud processes within each GCM grid column, provides a promising framework to address this challenge. Here we develop a new version of MMF that for the first time treats aerosol processes at cloud scale to improve the aerosol-cloud interaction representation in the model. We demonstrate that the model with the explicit aerosol treatments shows significant improvements of many aspects of the simulated aerosols compared to the previous version of MMF with aerosols parameterized at the GCM grid scale. The explicit aerosol treatments produce a significant increase of the column burdens of black carbon (BC), primary organic aerosol, and sulfate by up to 40% in many remote regions, a decrease of the sea-salt aerosol burdens by 40% in remote regions. These differences are caused by the differences in aerosol convective transport and wet removal between these two models. The new model also shows reduced bias of BC surface concentration in North America and BC vertical profiles in the high latitudes. However, the biased-high BC concentrations in the upper troposphere over the remote Pacific regions remain, requiring further improvements on other process representations (e.g., secondary activation neglected in the model). Plain Language Summary Most global climate models (GCMs) cannot resolve the important aerosol processes that are related to clouds and occur at cloud scale. This makes it difficult to predict the aerosol change and aerosol effects on climate. In contrast, the multi-scale modeling framework (MMF), which embeds a cloud resolving model (CRM) into each GCM grid column to resolve the cloud formation, provides a promising tool to handle this challenge. In this study, we develop a first global model explicitly representing aerosol processes at cloud scale (in each CRM grid cell) within a MMF. We found that (1) the MMF with aerosol processes explicitly represented in CRM grid cells can improve aerosol simulations in many aspects. (2) the MMF with aerosols parameterized in GCM grid cells can cause great biases in modelled aerosol distributions.

A series of 60-year numerical experiments starting from 1851 was conducted using a global climate model coupled with an aerosol-cloud-radiation model to investigate the response of the Asian summer monsoon to variations in the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) flux induced by two different estimations of biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions. One estimation was obtained from a pre-existing archive and the other was generated by a next-generation model (the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature, MEGAN). The use of MEGAN resulted in an overall increase of the SOA production through a higher rate of gasto-particle conversion of BVOCs. Consequently, the atmospheric loading of organic carbon (OC) increased due to the contribution of SOA to OC aerosol. The increase of atmospheric OC aerosols was prominent in particular in the Indian subcontinent and Indochina Peninsula (IP) during the pre- and early-monsoon periods because the terrestrial biosphere is the major source of BVOC emissions and the atmospheric aerosol concentration diminishes rapidly with the arrival of monsoon rainfall. As the number of atmospheric OC particles increased, the number concentrations of cloud droplets increased, but their size decreased. These changes represent a combination of aerosol-cloud interactions that were favorable to rainfall suppression. However, the modeled precipitation was slightly enhanced in May over the oceans that surround the Indian subcontinent and IP. Further analysis revealed that a compensating updraft in the surrounding oceans was induced by the thermally-driven downdraft in the IP, which was a result of surface cooling associated with direct OC aerosol radiative forcing, and was able to surpass the aerosolcloud interactions. The co-existence of oceanic ascending motion with the maximum convective available potential energy was also found to be crucial for rainfall formation. Although the model produced statistically significant rainfall changes with locally organized patterns, the suggested pathways should be considered guardedly because in the simulation results, 1) the BVOC-induced aerosol direct effect was marginal; 2) cloud-aerosol interactions were modeldependent; and 3) Asian summer monsoons were biased to a nonnegligible extent.

Ambient air pollution has significant impacts on global climate change in complex ways, involving both warming and cooling, and causes an estimated one million deaths every year. Modeling studies and observations from a suite of platforms, including those that are space based, have revealed that air pollution is a widespread global phenomenon. The net effect of air pollution is a global cooling that is masking 50% of the committed greenhouse gas (GHG) warming from the Industrial Revolution. Aggressive air pollution abatement and climate stabilization strategies that reduce cooling pollutants may lead to a short-term warming surge that is unsafe for ecosystems and the human population, imposing complex trade-offs in policy making. Conversely, selective reduction of warming air pollutants to mitigate near-term climate change may offer opportunities for synergistic policy development. Reducing and preventing the accumulation of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is the only sustainable way to protect climate safety in the long term. Here, the current understanding of air pollution effects on global climate change is reviewed, including assessment by individual pollutant, precursor emission, economic sector, and policy-relevant scenarios.