Issue Despite their rather similar climatic conditions, eastern Eurasia and northern North America are largely covered by different plant functional types (deciduous or evergreen boreal forest) composed of larch or pine, spruce and fir, respectively. I propose that these deciduous and evergreen boreal forests represent alternative quasi-stable states, triggered by their different northern tree refugia that reflect the different environmental conditions experienced during the Last Glacial. Evidence This view is supported by palaeoecological and environmental evidence. Once established, Asian larch forests are likely to have stabilized through a complex vegetation-fire-permafrost soil-climate feedback system. Conclusion With respect to future forest developments, this implies that Asian larch forests are likely to be governed by long-term trajectories and are therefore largely resistant to natural climate variability on time-scales shorter than millennia. The effects of regional human impact and anthropogenic global warming might, however, cause certain stability thresholds to be crossed, meaning that irreversible transitions occur and resulting in marked consequences for ecosystem services on these human-relevant time-scales.

The soil active layer in boreal forests is sensitive to climate warming. Climate-induced changes in the active layer may greatly affect the global carbon budget and planetary climatic system by releasing large quantities of greenhouse gases that currently are stored in permafrost. Ground surface temperature is an immediate driver of active layer thickness (ALT) dynamics. In this study, we mapped ALT distribution in Chinese boreal larch forests from 2000 to 2015 by integrating remote sensing data with the Stefan equation. We then examined the changes of the ALT in response to changes in ground surface temperature and identified drivers of the spatio-temporal patterns of ALT. Active layer thickness varied from 1.18 to 1.3 m in the study area. Areas of nonforested land and low elevation or with increased air temperature had a relatively high ALT, whereas ALT was lower at relatively high elevation and with decreased air temperatures. Interannual variations of ALT had no obvious trend, however, and the ALT changed at a rate of only -0.01 and 0.01 m year(-1). In a mega-fire patch of 79,000 ha burned in 2003, ALT (ALT(i) - ALT(2002), where 2003 i 2015) was significantly higher than in the unburned area, with the influence of the wildfire persisting 10 years. Under the high emission scenario (RCP8.5), an increase of 2.6-4.8 degrees C in mean air temperature would increase ALT into 1.46-1.55 m by 2100, which in turn would produce a significant positive feedback to climate warming.

Little is known about the ecological impacts of permafrost degradation on water fluxes in boreal ecosystems, such as those in Interior Alaska. Low plant water stress suggests a reliance on a diversity of water sources. In addition to rainfall, we hypothesize that deep soil water derived from thawing seasonal ground ice (TSGI) supports plants during dry periods. We analyzed water stable isotopes from soils, plants, ice, and rain collected from stable and unstable permafrost sites. We found that TSGI provides a background water source for plants during wet years (at least 10-20%) and a stable source during dry years (at least 30-50%) and early in the growing season (60-80% in wet and dry years). Plant water uptake patterns track the soil thawing front, using deep and shallow layers in wet years and deep layers during dry years. This plasticity allows boreal plants to cope with seasonal drought and exploit available water sources. The availability of TGSI depends on the amount of rainfall the prior year and on permafrost stability. Thawing permafrost may reduce the buffering capacity of TGSI due to less seasonal ice from greater drainage and/or a deeper active layer. This study demonstrates the importance of two buffering mechanisms for plants to cope with rainfall variability within boreal forest underlain by permafrost-availability of TSGI and plasticity in water uptake patterns. We suggest that plant utilization of stored water may be why evapotranspiration in northern latitudes can exceed growing season precipitation.