The degradation of permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere is expected to persist and potentially worsen as the climate continues to warm. Thawing permafrost results in the decomposition of organic matter frozen in the ground, which stores large amounts of soil organic carbon (SOC), leading to carbon being emitted into the atmosphere in the form of carbon dioxide and methane. This process could potentially contribute to positive feedback between global climate change and permafrost carbon emissions. Accurate projections of permafrost thawing are key to improving our estimates of the global carbon budget and future climate change. Using data from the latest generation of climate models (CMIP6), this paper explores the challenges involved in assessing the annual active layer thickness (ALT), defined as the maximum annual thaw depth of permafrost, and estimated carbon released under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). We find that the ALT estimates derived from CMIP6 model soil temperatures show significant deviations from the observed ALT values. This could lead to inconsistent estimates of carbon release under climate change. We propose a simplified approach to improve the estimate of the changes in ALT under future climate projections. These predicted ALT changes, combined with present-day observations, are used to estimate vulnerable carbon under future climate projections. CMIP6 models project ALT changes of 0.1-0.3 m per degree rise in local temperature, resulting in an average deepening of approx. 1.2-2.1 m in the northern high latitudes under different scenarios. With increasing temperatures, permafrost thawing starts in Southern Siberia, Northern Canada, and Alaska, progressively extending towards the North Pole by the end of the century under high emissions scenarios (SSP5-8.5). Using projections of ALT changes and vertically resolved SOC data, we estimate the ensemble mean of decomposable carbon stocks in thawed permafrost to be approximately 115 GtC (gigatons of carbon in the form of CO2 and CH4) under SSP1-2.6, 180 GtC under SSP2-4.5, 260 GtC under SSP3-7.0, and 300 GtC under SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century.

Our knowledge on permafrost carbon (C) cycle is crucial for understanding its feedback to climate warming and developing nature-based solutions for mitigating climate change. To understand the characteristics of permafrost C cycle on the Tibetan Plateau, the largest alpine permafrost region around the world, we summarized recent advances including the stocks and fluxes of permafrost C and their responses to thawing, and depicted permafrost C dynamics within this century. We find that this alpine permafrost region stores approximately 14.1 Pg (1 Pg=1015 g) of soil organic C (SOC) in the top 3 m. Both substantial gaseous emissions and lateral C transport occur across this permafrost region. Moreover, the mobilization of frozen C is expedited by permafrost thaw, especially by the formation of thermokarst landscapes, which could release significant amounts of C into the atmosphere and surrounding water bodies. This alpine permafrost region nevertheless remains an important C sink, and its capacity to sequester C will continue to increase by 2100. For future perspectives, we would suggest developing long-term in situ observation networks of C stocks and fluxes with improved temporal and spatial coverage, and exploring the mechanisms underlying the response of ecosystem C cycle to permafrost thaw. In addition, it is essential to improve the projection of permafrost C dynamics through in-depth model-data fusion on the Tibetan Plateau.

Permafrost carbon release is potentially the largest terrestrial feedback contributing to climate change. However, the changes in carbon release caused by the abrupt thawing of permafrost and their controlling factors remain largely unknown. Here, we measured soil organic carbon (SOC), total nitrogen (TN) concentrations, and carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) emission rates among seven permafrost collapse features over 3 years in the northern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). The results showed soil carbon and nitrogen loss caused by permafrost collapse ranged from - 12% to 28% and - 1% to 38%, respectively. We found there was a nonlinear relationship between soil carbon loss and permafrost collapse chronosequence. Permafrost collapse significantly reduced ecosystem respiration (Reco) and weakened carbon sinks. The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) decreased from 2.59 to - 0.21 & mu;mol CO2 m- 2 s- 1. The Reco and NEE values showed no significant changes over time after the initial permafrost collapse. In contrast, the CH4 fluxes increased over time following permafrost collapse, and the CH4 fluxes significantly increased 2 to 10 times in the exposed area compared with that in the control area. Soil temperature, moisture, and nutrient availability exerted the most controls over the carbon emission during permafrost collapse. This study provides the patterns of carbon loss and emissions in different permafrost collapse landscapes, which will provide deep insights and reliable data for future prediction of the abrupt thawing of permafrost-carbon feedback.