Thermokarst landslide (TL) activity in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is intensifying due to climate warminginduced permafrost degradation. However, the mechanisms driving landslide formation and evolution remain poorly understood. This study investigates the spatial distribution, annual frequency, and monthly dynamics of TLs along the Qinghai-Tibet engineering corridor (QTEC), in conjunction with in-situ temperature and rainfall observations, to elucidate the interplay between warming, permafrost degradation, and landslide activity. Through the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and field surveys, we identified 1298 landslides along the QTEC between 2016 and 2022, with an additional 386 landslides recorded in a typical landslide-prone subarea. In 2016, 621 new active-layer detachments (ALDs) were identified, 1.3 times the total historical record. This surge aligned with unprecedented mean annual and August temperatures. The ALDs emerged primarily between late August and early September, coinciding with maximum thaw depth. From 2016 to 2022, 97.8 % of these ALDs evolved into retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs), identified as active landslides. Landslides typically occur in alpine meadows at moderate altitudes and on gentle northward slopes. The thick ice layer near the permafrost table serves as the material basis for ALD occurrence. Abnormally high temperature significantly increased the active layer thickness (ALT), resulting in melting of the ice layer and formation of a thawed interlayer, which was the direct causing factor for ALD. By altering the local material, micro-topography, and thermal conditions, ALD activity significantly increases RTS susceptibility. Understanding the mechanisms of ALD formation and evolution into RTS provides a theoretical foundation for infrastructure development and disaster mitigation in extreme environments.

Seasonally frozen ground (SFG) is a significant component of the cryosphere, and its extent is gradually increasing due to climate change. The hydrological influence of SFG is complex and varies under different climatic and physiographic conditions. The summer rainfall dominant climate pattern in Qinghai Lake Basin (QLB) leads to a significantly different seasonal freeze-thaw process and groundwater flow compared to regions with winter snowfall dominated precipitation. The seasonal hydrological processes in QLB are not fully understood due to the lack of soil temperature and groundwater observation data. A coupled surface and subsurface thermal hydrology model was applied to simulate the freeze-thaw process of SFG and groundwater flow in the QLB. The results indicate that SFG begins to freeze in early November, reaches a maximum freezing depth of approximately 2 meters in late March, and thaws completely by June. This freeze-thaw process is primarily governed by the daily air temperature variations. During the early rainy season from April to June, the remaining SFG in deep soil hinders the majority of rainwater infiltration, resulting in a two-month delay in the peak of groundwater discharge compared to scenario with no SFG present. Colder conditions intensify this effect, delaying peak discharge by 3 months, whereas warmer conditions reduce the lag to 1 month. The ice saturation distribution along the hillslope is affected by topography, with a 10 cm deeper ice saturation distribution and 3 days delay of groundwater discharge in the steep case compared to the flat case. These findings highlight the importance of the freeze-thaw process of SFG on hydrological processes in regions dominated by summer rainfall, providing valuable insights into the hydro-ecological response. Enhanced understanding of these dynamics may improve water resource management strategies and support future research into climate-hydrology interactions in SFG-dominated landscapes.

The abrupt warming events punctuating the Termination 1 (about 11.7-18 ka Before Present, BP) were marked by sharp rises in the concentration of atmospheric methane (CH4). The role of permafrost organic carbon (OC) in these rises is still debated, with studies based on top-down measurements of radiocarbon (14C) content of CH(4 )trapped in ice cores suggesting minimum contributions from old and strongly C-14-depleted permafrost OC. However, organic matter from permafrost can exhibit a continuum of C-14 ages (contemporaneous to >50 ky). Here, we investigate the large-scale permafrost remobilization at the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition (ca. 11.6 ka BP) using the sedimentary record deposited at the Lena River paleo-outlet (Arctic Ocean) to reflect permafrost destabilization in this vast drainage basin. Terrestrial OC was isolated from sediments and characterized geochemically measuring delta C-13, Delta C-14, and lignin phenol molecular fossils. Results indicate massive remobilization of relatively young (about 2,600 years) permafrost OC from inland Siberia after abrupt warming triggered severe active layer deepening. Methane emissions from this young fraction of permafrost OC contributed to the deglacial CH4 rise. This study stresses that underestimating permafrost complexities may affect our comprehension of the deglacial permafrost OC-climate feedback and helps understand how modern permafrost systems may react to rapid warming events, including enhanced CH4 emissions that would amplify anthropogenic climate change.

In Northeast China, permafrost is controlled by a combination of biotic, climatic, physiographic, and anthropogenic factors. Due to the complexity of these governing or influencing factors, it is challenging to exactly describe the features of the Xing'an permafrost in Northeast China. By integrating remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) technologies, we have quantified these influencing factors of permafrost changes as an important approach to understanding the nature of latitudinal and mountain permafrost in Northeast China at the mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. In this study, we combine Geographical Detector (Geodetector) model, trend analysis, and multi-source RS data to quantify the controlling or influencing factors of permafrost thermal state and of permafrost changes, and explain the interactions among permafrost, environment, and climate. The results indicate that, at the regional scale, changes in the thermal state of permafrost are primarily governed or influenced by mean annual land surface temperature (MALST), precipitation, and snow cover duration (SCD). Topographic factors also affect the spatial patterns of permafrost development. Additionally, in the context of climate warming, the insulation effect of snow cover on the permafrost is weakened, or has been weakening. Moreover, the interactive effects among various factors significantly enhance their explanatory power for changes in the thermal state of permafrost. The study emphasizes the complexity of the interactions among permafrost, climate, and the environment, and highlights the significance of understanding these interactions for regional socio-economic development, ecological management, carbon pool stabilization, and research on future climate change in Northeast China.

Driven by human activities and global climate change, the climate on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is experiencing a warming and humidifying trend. It significantly impacts the thermal-moisture dynamics in the active layer of the permafrost, which in turn affects the ecological environment of cold regions and the stability of cold region engineering. While the effect of air temperature on permafrost thaw has been well quantified, the processes and mechanisms behind the thermal-moisture response of the permafrost under the combined influence of increased rainfall and rising air temperature remain contentious and largely unknown. A coupled model was applied to quantify the impacts of increased rainfall, rising air temperature, and their compound effects on the thermal-moisture dynamics in the active layer, considering the sensible heat of rainwater in the ground surface energy balance and water balance process. The results indicate that the compound effect of warming and humidifying resulted in a significant increase in surface net radiation and evaporation latent heat, a more significant decrease in surface sensible heat, and a smaller impact of rainfall sensible heat, leading to an increase in surface soil heat flux. The compound effect of warming and humidifying leads to a significant increase in the liquid water flux with temperature gradient. The increase in liquid water flux due to the temperature gradient is larger than that of warming alone but smaller than the effect of humidifying alone. Warming and humidifying result in a smaller increase in soil moisture content during the warm season compared to rainfall increases alone. The thermal conductivity heat flux in the active layer increases significantly during the cold season but less than the effect of warming alone. The convective heat flux of liquid water flux increases noticeably during the warm season but less than the effect of rainfall increases alone. Increased rainfall significantly cools the soil during the warm season, while both warming and humidifying lead to a more pronounced warming effect on the soil during the cold season than during the warm season. An increase in the average annual temperature by 1.0 degrees C leads to a downward shift of the permafrost table by 10 cm, while an increase in rainfall by 100 mm causes an upward shift of the permafrost table by 8 cm. The combined effect of warming and humidifying results in a downward shift of the permafrost table by 6 cm. Under the influence of climate warming and humidifying, the cooling effect of increased rainfall on permafrost is relatively small, and the warming effect of increased temperature still dominates.

Permafrost degradation varies spatially; however, the underlying mechanism remains partially unclear. In this study, we predicted permafrost variation under the influence of climate change to investigate the sensitivity of permafrost degradation to geological and climatic conditions. The results revealed that geological strata can strongly impact the permafrost degradation process. Mainly due to the greater thermal conductivity of sandy gravel in the Arctic, the complete thaw of permafrost will be greatly delayed by more than 160 years compared with that on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Climatic conditions, such as snow depth, can also greatly affect the degradation process of permafrost: The thaw of permafrost will be delayed by more than 140 years when the snow depth decreases from 0.7 to 0.1 m. Peat soil thickness at ground surface can also affect permafrost degradation. The permafrost temperature increases as peat soil thickens when the thickness is less than 1.0 m, whereas there is a critical peat soil thickness (approximately 0.2 and 0.5 m on the QTP and in the Arctic, respectively) under which permafrost will thaw at the fastest rate. The findings highlight the influence of geology and climate over permafrost degradation.

Global climate warming is accelerating permafrost degradation. The large amounts of soil organic matter in permafrost-affected soils are prone to increased microbial decomposition in a warming climate. Along with permafrost degradation, changes to the soil microbiome play a crucial role in enhancing our understanding and in predicting the feedback of permafrost carbon. In this article, we review the current state of knowledge of carbon-cycling microbial ecology in permafrost regions. Microbiomes in degrading permafrost exhibit variations across spatial and temporal scales. Among the short-term, rapid degradation scenarios, thermokarst lakes have distinct biogeochemical conditions promoting emission of greenhouse gases. Additionally, extreme climatic events can trigger drastic changes in microbial consortia and activity. Notably, environmental conditions appear to exert a dominant influence on microbial assembly in permafrost ecosystems. Furthermore, as the global climate is closely connected to various permafrost regions, it will be crucial to extend our understanding beyond local scales, for example by conducting comparative and integrative studies between Arctic permafrost and alpine permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau at global and continental scales. These comparative studies will enhance our understanding of microbial functioning in degrading permafrost ecosystems and help inform effective strategies for managing and mitigating the impacts of climate change on permafrost regions.

Permafrost in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is sensitive to climate warming, but the associated degradation risk still lacks accurate evaluation. To address this issue, machine learning (ML) models are established to simulate the mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active layer thickness (ALT), and climate data from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are prepared for evaluation in the future period. Based on the projections, permafrost is expected to remain relatively stable under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, and large-scale permafrost degradation will occur after the 2050s, resulting in area losses of 30.15% (SSP2-4.5), 58.96% (SSP3-7.0), and 65.97% (SSP5-8.5) in the 2090s relative to the modeling period (2006-2018). The average permafrost MAGT (ALT) is predicted to increase by 0.50 degrees C (59 cm), 0.67 degrees C (89 cm), and 0.79 degrees C (97 cm) in the 2090s with respect to the modeling period under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Permafrost in the Qilian Mountains and Three Rivers Source region are fragile and vulnerable to degradation. In the future period, permafrost on the sunny slopes is more prone to degradation and the sunny-shade slope effect of permafrost distribution will be further enhanced under climate warming. The lower limit of permafrost distribution is expected to rise by about 100 m in the 2050s under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. These findings can provide valuable insights about future permafrost changes in the QTP. In the past decades, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) warmed at more than twice the global average, and permafrost degradation within this process has become widely acknowledged. To project the possible changes, a combination of climate data from global climate model, machine learning model, and permafrost field observation data were used, based on a comprehensive review of previous studies. The findings indicate that permafrost in the QTP is not expected to undergo significant degradation under the SSP1-2.6 scenario. However, noticeable permafrost degradation is projected to occur after the 2050s under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, particularly in the Qilian Mountains and Three Rivers Source region. It is predicted that permafrost on sunny slopes is more susceptible to degradation under climate warming, and the permafrost area difference between the sunny and shade slopes will be further expanded. The mean annual air temperature of the QTP will rise by about 1.5 degrees C in the 2050s under the SSP2-4.5 scenario relative to the average between 2006 and 2018, which may lead to a 100 m rise on the low limit of permafrost distribution. Permafrost area of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is expected to lose by 30.15% (SSP2-4.5) to 65.97% (SSP5-8.5) in the 2090sPermafrost in the Qilian Mountains and Three Rivers Source region are fragile and vulnerable to degradationThe lower limit of permafrost distribution in the QTP is forecasted to rise by about 100 m in the 2050s under the SSP2-4.5 scenario

Thermokarst lake development significantly affects hydrologic systems, infrastructure stability and biogeo-chemical processes, while the spatial and temporal changes in thermokarst lakes remain largely unknown. Here, we created a thermokarst lake dataset on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) using a threshold-based mapping method based on Google Earth Engine (GEE) data associated with visual inspection. The dataset includes a thermokarst lake inventory on the QTP at a 10 m resolution produced from Sentinel-2A images and a multi-temporal inventory along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway (QTH) from Landsat and Sentinel-2A images. We analyzed the temporal and spatial changes in thermokarst lake area and their relationships to environmental factors. Our results showed that thermokarst lakes on the QTP permafrost region covered a total area of 1572 +/- 184 km(2), with most of the thermokarst lakes <10,000 m(2) in area. The spatial distributions of thermokarst lakes are affected by the ground thermal stability, active layer thickness, vegetation type, and ground ice content. Over the past 30 years, the number and surface area of thermokarst lakes along the QTH have increased by 58.8 % and 83.1 %, respectively, with the increase in lakes likely caused by climate warming and precipitation increasing. This study provides deep insight in the long-term interannual variations and its driving factors in thermokarst lakes along the QTH.

Climate warming leads to the aggravation of infrastructures and environmental risks in permafrost regions. There are few reports about the interaction between airport runway and permafrost foundation. Based on long term field monitoring, remote sensing and comparative analysis approaches, our study quantitatively investigates the impacts of runway and climate on permafrost in northernmost China, and also the engineering problems are analyzed. Results show that the atmospheric inversion in winter controls the regional permafrost distribution in the study area. Ground surface warmed significantly after vegetation removal because of the runway construction. The maximum temperature difference among the forest, the swamp and the bared gravel can reach to 30 degrees C in summer. Such surface alterations caused abnormally rapid degradation of permafrost within the context of climate warming. The rate of permafrost table deepening varies from 0.461 to 0.590 m/a over the 2007-2017 periods. Also, the annual mean ground temperature at the 13 m depth increased at a rate of 0.054-0.130 degrees C /a. Its annual increase value is 0 similar to 0.47 degrees C with an average 0.108 +/- 0.124 degrees C. In turn, permafrost degradation caused runway safety problems, such as the decrease of bearing capacity, increase of longitudinal slope, decrease of planeness, pavement cracks, density decrease of the foundation and cement concrete pavement cavity. However, in the natural places, the permafrost remained relatively stable and didn't show a continued degradation trend. The permafrost table fluctuated with air temperature changes. Its interannual fluctuation range is 0 similar to 0.25 m, with an average 0.08 +/- 0.08 m. The interannual fluctuation range of ground temperature at the depth of 13 m is 0.01 similar to 0.10 degrees C, with an average 0.06 +/- 0.03 degrees C. In addition, the zero curtain phenomena were observed at the study site. Once the zero curtain periods were over, the ground temperature warmed rapidly. These findings have positive implication for new runway design in permafrost regions.