This study assesses the vulnerability of Arctic coastal settlements and infrastructure to coastal erosion, Sea-Level Rise (SLR) and permafrost warming. For the first time, we characterize coastline retreat consistently along permafrost coastal settlements at the regional scale for the Northern Hemisphere. We provide a new method to automatically derive long-term coastline change rates for permafrost coasts. In addition, we identify the total number of coastal settlements and associated infrastructure that could be threatened by marine and terrestrial changes using remote sensing techniques. We extended the Arctic Coastal Infrastructure data set (SACHI) to include road types, airstrips, and artificial water reservoirs. The analysis of coastline, Ground Temperature (GT) and Active Layer Thickness (ALT) changes from 2000 to 2020, in addition with SLR projection, allowed to identify exposed settlements and infrastructure for 2030, 2050, and 2100. We validated the SACHI-v2, GT and ALT data sets through comparisons with in-situ data. 60% of the detected infrastructure is built on low-lying coast (< 10 m a.s.l). The results show that in 2100, 45% of all coastal settlements will be affected by SLR and 21% by coastal erosion. On average, coastal permafrost GT is increasing by 0.8 degrees C per decade, and ALT is increasing by 6 cm per decade. In 2100, GT will become positive at 77% of the built infrastructure area. Our results highlight the circumpolar and international amplitude of the problem and emphasize the need for immediate adaptation measures to current and future environmental changes to counteract a deterioration of living conditions and ensure infrastructure sustainability.

Climate warming is expected to destabilize permafrost carbon (PF-C) by thaw-erosion and deepening of the seasonally thawed active layer and thereby promote PF-C mineralization to CO2 and CH4. A similar PF-C remobilization might have contributed to the increase in atmospheric CO2 during deglacial warming after the last glacial maximum. Using carbon isotopes and terrestrial biomarkers (Delta C-14, delta C-13, and lignin phenols), this study quantifies deposition of terrestrial carbon originating from permafrost in sediments from the Chukchi Sea (core SWERUS-L2-4-PC1). The sediment core reconstructs remobilization of permafrost carbon during the late Allerod warm period starting at 13,000 cal years before present (BP), the Younger Dryas, and the early Holocene warming until 11,000 cal years BP and compares this period with the late Holocene, from 3,650 years BP until present. Dual-carbon-isotope-based source apportionment demonstrates that Ice Complex Deposit-ice- and carbon-rich permafrost from the late Pleistocene (also referred to as Yedoma)-was the dominant source of organic carbon (66 +/- 8%; mean +/- standard deviation) to sediments during the end of the deglaciation, with fluxes more than twice as high (8.0 +/- 4.6 g.m(-2).year(-1)) as in the late Holocene (3.1 +/- 1.0 g.m(-2).year(-1)). These results are consistent with late deglacial PF-C remobilization observed in a Laptev Sea record, yet in contrast with PF-C sources, which at that location were dominated by active layer material from the Lena River watershed. Release of dormant PF-C from erosion of coastal permafrost during the end of the last deglaciation indicates vulnerability of Ice Complex Deposit in response to future warming and sea level changes.

Patterns of coastal erosion in the Arctic differ dramatically from those coasts in more temperate environments. Thick sea ice and shore-fast ice limit wave-based erosional processes to a brief open water season, however despite this, permafrost coasts containing massive ice, ice wedges and ice-bonded sediments tend to experience high rates of erosion. These high rates of erosion reflect the combined thermal-mechanical processes of thawing permafrost, melting ground ice, and wave action. Climate change in the Arctic is expected to result in increased rates of coastal erosion due to warming permafrost, increasing active layer depths and thermokarst, rising sea levels, reduction in sea ice extent and duration, and increasing storm impacts. With the most ice-rich permafrost in the Canadian Arctic, the southern Beaufort Sea coast between the Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula and the Alaskan border is subject to high rates of erosion and retrogressive thaw slump activity. Under many climate change scenarios this area is also predicted to experience the greatest warming in the Canadian Arctic. This paper presents results of a remote sensing study on the long-term patterns of coastal erosion and retrogressive thaw slump activity for Herschel Island in the northern Yukon Territory. Using orthorectified airphotos from 1952 and 1970 and an Ikonos image from 2000 corrected with control points collected by kinematic differential global positioning system and processed using softcopy photogrammetric tools, mean coastal retreat rates of 0.61 m/yr and 0.45 m/yr were calculated for the periods 1952-1970 and 1970-2000, respectively. The highest coastal retreat rates are on north-west facing shorelines which correspond to the main direction of storm-related wave attack. During the period 1970-2000 coastal retreat rates for south to south-east facing shorelines displayed a distinct increase even though these are the most sheltered orientations. However, south to south-east facing shorelines correspond to the orientations where the highest densities of retrogressive thaw slumps are observed. Differences in rates of headwall retreat of retrogressive thaw slumps and coastal erosion results in the formation of larger thermokarst scars and the development of polycyclic thaw slumps on south to south-east exposures. The number and the total area of retrogressive thaw slumps increased by 125% and 160%, respectively, between 1952 and 2000. As well, the proportion of active retrogressive thaw slumps increased dramatically. Polycyclic retrogressive thaw slumps appear to develop in a periodic fashion, related to retrogressive thaw slump stage and maximum inland extent. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.