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Precipitation comes in various phases, including rainfall, snowfall, sleet, and hail. Shifts of precipitation phases, as well as changes in precipitation amount, intensity, and frequency, have significant impacts on regional climate, hydrology, ecology, and the energy balance of the land-atmosphere system. Over the past century, certain progress has been achieved in aspects such as the observation, discrimination, transformation, and impact of precipitation phases. Mainly including: since the 1980s, studies on the observation, formation mechanism, and prediction of precipitation phases have gradually received greater attention and reached a certain scale. The estimation of different precipitation phases using new detection theories and methods has become a research focus. A variety of discrimination methods or schemes, such as the potential thickness threshold method of the air layer, the temperature threshold method of the characteristic layer, and the near-surface air temperature threshold method, have emerged one after another. Meanwhile, comparative studies on the discrimination accuracy and applicability assessment of multiple methods or schemes have also been carried out simultaneously. In recent years, the shift of precipitation from solid to liquid (SPSL) in the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere has become more pronounced due to global warming and human activities. It leads to an increase in rain-on-snow (ROS) events and avalanche disasters, affecting the speed, intensity, and duration of spring snow-melting, accelerating sea ice and glacier melting, releasing carbon from permafrost, altering soil moisture, productivity, and phenological characteristics of ecosystems, and thereby affecting their structures, processes, qualities, and service functions. Although some progress has been made in the study of precipitation phases, there remains considerable research potential in terms of completeness of basic data, reliability of discrimination schemes, and the mechanistic understanding of the interaction between SPSL and other elements or systems. The study on shifts of precipitation phases and their impacts will play an increasingly important role in assessing the impacts of global climate change, water cycle processes, water resources management, snow and ice processes, snow and ice-related disasters, carbon emissions from permafrost, and ecosystem safety.

2025-02-01 Web of Science

High Mountain Asia (HMA) shows a remarkable warming tendency and divergent trend of regional precipitation with enhanced meteorological extremes. The rapid thawing of the HMA cryosphere may alter the magnitude and frequency of nature hazards. We reviewed the influence of climate change on various types of nature hazards in HMA region, including their phenomena, mechanisms and impacts. It reveals that: 1) the occurrences of extreme rainfall, heavy snowfall, and drifting snow hazards are escalating; accelerated ice and snow melting have advanced the onset and increased the magnitude of snowmelt floods; 2) due to elevating trigger factors, such as glacier debuttressing and the rapid shift of thermal and hydrological regime of bedrock/snow/ice interface or subsurface, the mass flow hazards including bedrock landslide, snow avalanche, ice-rock avalanches or glacier detachment, and debris flow will become more severe; 3) increased active-layer detachment and retrogressive thaw slumps slope failures, thaw settlement and thermokarst lake will damage many important engineering structures and infrastructure in permafrost region; 4) multi-hazards cascading hazard in HMA, such as the glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) and avalanche-induced mass flow may greatly enlarge the destructive power of the primary hazard by amplifying its volume, mobility, and impact force; and 5) enhanced slope instability and sediment supply in the highland areas could impose remote catastrophic impacts upon lowland regions, and threat hydropower security and future water shortage. In future, ongoing thawing of HMA will profoundly weaken the multiple-phase material of bedrock, ice, water, and soil, and enhance activities of nature hazards. Compounding and cascading hazards of high magnitude will prevail in HMA. As the glacier runoff overpasses the peak water, low flow or droughts in lowland areas downstream of glacierized mountain regions will became more frequent and severe. Addressing escalating hazards in the HMA region requires tackling scientific challenges, including understanding multiscale evolution and formation mechanism of HMA hazard-prone systems, coupling thermo-hydro-mechanical processes in multi-phase flows, predicting catastrophes arising from extreme weather and climate events, and comprehending how highland hazards propagate to lowlands due to climate change.

2024-06-01 Web of Science

Over the past decades, the cryosphere has changed significantly in High Mountain Asia (HMA), leading to multiple natural hazards such as rock-ice avalanches, glacier collapse, debris flows, landslides, and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Monitoring cryosphere change and evaluating its hydrological effects are essential for studying climate change, the hydrological cycle, water resource management, and natural disaster mitigation and prevention. However, knowledge gaps, data uncertainties, and other substantial challenges limit comprehensive research in climate-cryosphere-hydrology-hazard systems. To address this, we provide an up-to-date, comprehensive, multidisciplinary review of remote sensing techniques in cryosphere studies, demonstrating primary methodologies for delineating glaciers and measuring geodetic glacier mass balance change, glacier thickness, glacier motion or ice velocity, snow extent and water equivalent, frozen ground or frozen soil, lake ice, and glacier-related hazards. The principal results and data achievements are summarized, including URL links for available products and related data platforms. We then describe the main challenges for cryosphere monitoring using satellite-based datasets. Among these challenges, the most significant limitations in accurate data inversion from remotely sensed data are attributed to the high uncertainties and inconsistent estimations due to rough terrain, the various techniques employed, data variability across the same regions (e.g., glacier mass balance change, snow depth retrieval, and the active layer thickness of frozen ground), and poor-quality optical images due to cloudy weather. The paucity of ground observations and validations with few long-term, continuous datasets also limits the utilization of satellite-based cryosphere studies and large-scale hydrological models. Lastly, we address potential breakthroughs in future studies, i.e., (1) outlining debris-covered glacier margins explicitly involving glacier areas in rough mountain shadows, (2) developing highly accurate snow depth retrieval methods by establishing a microwave emission model of snowpack in mountainous regions, (3) advancing techniques for subsurface complex freeze-thaw process observations from space, (4) filling knowledge gaps on scattering mechanisms varying with surface features (e.g., lake ice thickness and varying snow features on lake ice), and (5) improving and cross-verifying the data retrieval accuracy by combining different remote sensing techniques and physical models using machine learning methods and assimilation of multiple high-temporal-resolution datasets from multiple platforms. This comprehensive, multidisciplinary review highlights cryospheric studies incorporating spaceborne observations and hydrological models from diversified techniques/methodologies (e.g., multi-spectral optical data with thermal bands, SAR, InSAR, passive microwave, and altimetry), providing a valuable reference for what scientists have achieved in cryosphere change research and its hydrological effects on the Third Pole.

2024-05-01 Web of Science

With the global warming, the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is degrading significantly, which brings potential threats to the major engineering projects built in or on it, e. g., the Qinghai-Tibet Highway, Qinghai-Tibet Railway, and Xinjiang-Tibet Highway. This study uses advanced survey and statistical methods to reveal the spatial distribution characteristics, development patterns, influencing factors, and formation mechanisms of the damages on the pavement induced by permafrost thawing and freeze-thaw cycles to identify their development process, evolution patterns, and different types of underlying permafrost. This will provide suggestions and guidance to the relevant departments in the decision-making, planning, design, and construction and maintenance of the running or future engineering projects on the QTP.

2024-01-01 Web of Science

With the expansion of engineering activities, numerous major projects are gradually emerging in frozen soil regions. However, due to the unique engineering properties of frozen soil, various frozen soil engineering di-sasters have occurred or accelerated under the conditions of global warming, posing a serious threat to the project operation, environmental and ecological protection, and humanity development. This paper summarizes the formation conditions of frozen soil engineering disasters from the perspectives of thermal, hydraulic, and mechanical factors based on existing research. The definition, development trend and characteristics of thawing disaster, frost heaving disaster and freeze-thaw disaster are generalized. The main prevention measures are summarized based on the thermal, hydraulic, and mechanical conditions that cause frozen soil engineering di-sasters. Research suggestions on frozen soil engineering disasters including the engineering disaster mechanism under the frozen soil degradation and multi-hazard risk assessment are proposed. It may provide some references for the harmonious coexistence and sustainable development of engineering construction and geological envi-ronment in frozen soil area.

2023-08-01 Web of Science

With the escalation of global warming, the shrinkage of mountain glaciers has accelerated globally, the water volume from glaciers has changed, and relative disasters have increased in intensity and frequency (for example, ice avalanches, surging glaciers, and glacial lake outburst floods). However, the wireless monitoring of glacial movements cannot currently achieve omnidirectional, high-precision, real-time results, since there are some technical bottlenecks. Based on wireless networks and sensor application technologies, this study designed a wireless monitoring system for measuring the internal parameters of mountain glaciers, such as temperature, pressure, humidity, and power voltage, and for wirelessly transmitting real-time measurement data. The system consists of two parts, with a glacier internal monitoring unit as one part and a glacier surface base station as the second part. The former wirelessly transmits the monitoring data to the latter, and the latter processes the received data and then uploads the data to a cloud data platform via 4G or satellite signals. The wireless system can avoid cable constraints and transmission failures due to breaking cables. The system can provide more accurate field-monitoring data for simulating glacier movements and further offers an early warning system for glacial disasters.

2022-12

Since the 1970s, the ongoing retreat of the global cryosphere has been affecting human societies and causing a series of snow- and ice-related disasters (SIRDs). Based on existing research results, this paper focuses on searching for the formation mechanism of SIRDs, classifies their types and spatiotemporal scales, and reveals the integrated impacts of the SIRD and its future situation on global high-hazard areas. On land, SIRDs mainly occur in the high mountainous areas of middle-low latitude and the permafrost regions of high latitude, in the behaviors of increasing frequency of glacier/snow/glacier lake outburst flood-related disasters and an expanding range of freeze-thaw disasters. The recorded frost events show a decreasing trend but the hail hazard distributions are greatly heterogenous. Overall, the frequency of rain-on-snow events is projected to increase on land in the future. In the ocean, SIRDs are mainly distributed in the Arctic coastal areas and global low-lying islands or areas, with great potential risk. Among them, coastal freeze-thaw, icebergs, and sea-level rise and its impacts are likely or expected to continue increasing in the next few decades.

2022-11-15

Affected by global warming, permafrost thawing in Northeast China promotes issues including highway subgrade instability and settlement. The traditional design concept based on protecting permafrost is unsuitable for regional highway construction. Based on the design concept of allowing permafrost thawing and the thermodynamic characteristics of a block-stone layer structure, a new subgrade structure using a large block-stone layer to replace the permafrost layer in a foundation is proposed and has successfully been practiced in the Walagan-Xilinji of the Beijing-Mohe Highway to reduce subgrade settlement. To compare and study the improvement in the new structure on the subgrade stability, a coupling model of liquid water, vapor, heat and deformation is proposed to simulate the hydrothermal variation and deformation mechanism of different structures within 20 years of highway completion. The results show that the proposed block-stone structure can effectively reduce the permafrost degradation rate and liquid water content in the active layer to improve subgrade deformation. During the freezing period, when the water in the active layer under the subgrade slope and natural ground surface refreezes, two types of freezing forms, scattered ice crystals and continuous ice lenses, will form, which have different retardation coefficients for hydrothermal migration. These forms are discussed separately, and the subgrade deformation is corrected. From 2019 to 2039, the maximum cumulative settlement and the maximum transverse deformation of the replacement block-stone, breccia and gravel subgrades are -0.211 cm and +0.111 cm, -23.467 cm and -1.209 cm, and -33.793 cm and -2.207 cm, respectively. The replacement block-stone subgrade structure can not only reduce the cumulative settlement and frost heave but also reduce the transverse deformation and longitudinal cracks to effectively improve subgrade stability. However, both the vertical deformation and transverse deformation of the other two subgrades are too large, and the embankment fill layer will undergo transverse deformation in the opposite direction, which will cause sliding failure to the subgrades. Therefore, these two subgrade structures cannot be used in permafrost regions. The research results provide a reference for solving the settlement and deformation problems of subgrades in degraded permafrost regions and contribute to the development and application of complex numerical models related to water, heat and deformation in cold regions.

2022-09-01 Web of Science

Drought is a complicated and costly natural hazard and identification of critical drought factors is critical for modeling and forecasting of droughts and hence development of drought mitigation measures (the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index) in both space and time. Here we quantified relationships between drought and 23 drought factors using remote sensing data during the period of 2002-2016. Based on the Gradient Boosting Algorithm (GBM), we found that precipitation and soil moisture had relatively large contributions to droughts. During the growing season, the relative importance of Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI-7) for SPEI3, SPEI6, SPEI9, and SPEI12 reached as high as 50%. However, during the non-growing season, the Snow Cover Fraction (SCF) had larger fractional relative importance for short-term droughts in the Inner Mongolia and the Loess Plateau which can reach as high as 10%. We also compared Extremely Randomized Trees (ERT), H2O based Deep Learning (Model developed by H2O.deep learning in R H2O.DL), and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) for drought prediction at various time scales, and found that the ERT model had the highest prediction performance with R-2 > 0.72. Based on the Meta-Gaussian model, we quantified the probability of maize yield reduction in the North China Plain under different compound dry-hot conditions. Due to extreme drought and hot conditions, Shandong Province in North China had the highest probability of >80% of the maize yield reduction; due to the extreme hot conditions, Jiangsu Province in East China had the largest probability of >86% of the maize yield reduction. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

2022-01-10 Web of Science

The Karakoram mountain range is prone to natural disasters such as glacial surging and glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) events. In this study, we aimed to document and reconstruct the sequence of events caused by glacial debris flows that dammed the Immit River in the Hindu Kush Karakoram Range on 17 July 2018. We used satellite remote sensing and field data to conduct the analyses. The order of the events in the disaster chain were determined as follows: glacial meltwater from the G2 glacier (ID: G074052E36491N) transported ice and debris that dammed the meltwater at the snout of the G1 glacier (ID: G074103E36480N), then the debris flow dammed the Immit River and caused Lake Badswat to expand. We surveyed the extent of these events using remote sensing imagery. We analyzed the glaciers' responses to this event chain and found that the glacial debris flow induced G1 to exhibit accelerating ice flow in parts of the region from 25 July 2018 to 4 August 2018. According to the records from reanalysis data and data from the automatic weather station located 75 km from Lake Badswat, the occurrence of this disaster chain was related to high temperatures recorded after 15 July 2018. The chains of events caused by glacially related disasters makes such hazards more complex and dangerous. Therefore, this study is useful not only for understanding the formation of glacial disaster chains, but also for framing mitigation plans to reduce the risks for vulnerable downstream/upstream residents.

2021-05-09
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