Study region: The study focuses on the Indus River Basin and southern Pakistan, severely affected by flooding in 2022. Study focus: This study assessed how land surface temperature, snow cover, soil moisture, and precipitation contributed to the deluge of 2022. This study mainly investigated MODIS-AIRS land surface temperature, MODIS snow cover (NDSI), SMAP soil moisture, and GPM IMERG precipitation accumulation. Furthermore, different flood visualization and mapping techniques were applied to delineate the flood extent map using Landsat 8-9, Sentinel-2 MSI, and Sentinel-1 SAR data. New hydrological insights for the region: The region experienced some of the most anomalous climatic events in 2022, such as prolonged heatwaves as observed with higher-than-average land surface temperatures and subsequent rapid decline in snow cover extent during the spring, increased soil moisture followed by an abnormal amount of extreme monsoon precipitation in the summer. The upper subbasins experienced more than 8 degrees C in positive temperature anomaly, indicating a warmer climate in spring. Subsequently, the snow cover declined by more than 25 % in the upper subbasins. Further, higher surface soil moisture values (> 0.3 m3/m3) were observed in the basin during the spring due to the rapid snow and ice melt. Furthermore, the basin received more than 200 mm of rainfall compared to the long-term average rainfall of about 98 mm, translating to about 300 % more rainfall than usual in July and August. The analysis helps understand the spatial and temporal variability within the basin and facilitates the understanding of factors and their intricate connections contributing to flooding.

Permafrost is undergoing rapid changes due to climate warming, potentially exposing a vast reservoir of carbon to be released to the atmosphere, causing a positive feedback cycle. Despite the importance of this feedback, its specifics remain poorly constrained, because representing permafrost dynamics still poses a significant challenge for Earth System Models (ESMs). This review assesses the current state of permafrost representation in land surface models (LSMs) used in ESMs and offline permafrost models, highlighting both the progress made and the remaining gaps.We identify several key physical processes crucial for permafrost dynamics, including soil thermal regimes, freeze-thaw cycles, and soil hydrology, which are underrepresented in many models. While some LSMs have advanced significantly in incorporating these processes, others lack fundamental elements such as latent heat of freeze-thaw, deep soil columns, and Arctic vegetation dynamics. Offline permafrost models provide valuable insights, offering detailed process testing and aiding the prioritization of improvements in coupled LSMs.Our analysis reveals that while significant progress has been made in incorporating permafrost-related processes into coupled LSMs, many small-scale processes crucial for permafrost dynamics remain underrepresented. This is particularly important for capturing the complex interactions between physical and biogeochemical processes required to model permafrost carbon dynamics. We recommend leveraging advancements from offline permafrost models and progressively integrating them into LSMs, while recognizing the computational and technical challenges that may arise in coupled simulations. We highlight the importance of enhancing the representation of physical processes, including through improvements in model resolution and complexity, as this is a fundamental precursor to accurately incorporate biogeochemical processes and capture the permafrost carbon feedback.

Ongoing and widespread permafrost degradation potentially affects terrestrial ecosystems, whereas the changes in its effects on vegetation under climate change remain unclear. Here, we estimated the relative contribution of progressive active layer thickness (ALT) increases to vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP) in the northern permafrost region during the 21st century. Our results revealed that ALT changes accounted for 40% of the GPP increase in the permafrost region during 2000-2021, with amplified effects observed in late growing season (September-October) (43.2%-45.4%) and was especially notable in tundra ecosystems (51%-52.6%). However, projections indicated that this contribution could decrease considerably in the coming decades. Model simulations suggest that once ALT increments (relative to the 2001-2021 baseline) reach approximately 90 cm between 2035 and 2045, the promoting effect of ALT increase on vegetation growth may disappear. These findings provide crucial insights for accurately modelling and predicting ecosystem carbon dynamics in northern high latitudinal regions.

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) covers the largest regions under low- and mid-latitude permafrost. The evolution of permafrost has significantly affected the hydrology, biogeochemistry, and infrastructure of Asia. However, model reconstructions of long-term permafrost evolution with high accuracy and reliability are insufficient. Here, spatial changes in mean annual ground temperature at the depth where the annual amplitude is zero (MAGT) on the TP since 1981 were modeled and validated based on temperature records from 155 boreholes, and future changes were predicted under scenarios from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). The results indicated that the MAGT on the TP was approximately 1.5 degrees C (2010 - 2018), and the corresponding permafrost extent on the TP is estimated to be approximately 1.03 x 106 km2, which is projected to decrease to 0.77 x 106, 0.50 x 106, 0.30 x 106, and 0.17 x 106 km2 under the scenarios of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively, by 2100. As predicted in the SSP585 scenario, permafrost is predicted to largely disappear from many basins of major Asian rivers, such as the Yarlung Zangpo-Brahmaputra, NuSalween, and Lancang-Mekong Rivers, between 2041 and 2060, followed by the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers between 2061 and 2080. Moreover, the original stable permafrost in the West Kunlun Mountains will change to transitional and unstable conditions. Our study offers comprehensive datasets of year-to-year ground temperatures and permafrost extent maps for the TP, which can serve as a fundamental resource for further investigations on the hydrogeology, engineering geology, ecology, and geochemistry of the TP.

Alpine treelines ecotones are critical ecological transition zones and are highly sensitive to global warming. However, the impact of climate on the distribution of treeline trees is not yet fully understood as this distribution may also be affected by other factors. Here, we used high-resolution satellite images with climatic and topographic variables to study changes in treeline tree distribution in the alpine treeline ecotone of the Changbai Mountain for the years 2002, 2010, 2017, and 2021. This study employed the Geodetector method to analyze how interactions between climatic and topographic factors influence the expansion of Betula ermanii on different aspect slopes. Over the past 20 years, B. ermanii, the only tree species in the Changbai Mountain tundra zone, had its highest expansion rate from 2017 to 2021 across all the years studied, approaching 2.38% per year. In 2021, B. ermanii reached its uppermost elevations of 2224 m on the western aspects and 2223 m on the northern aspects, which are the predominant aspects it occupies. We also observed a notable increase in the distribution of B. ermanii on steeper slopes (> 15 degrees) between 2002 and 2021. Moreover, we found that interactions between climate and topographic factors played a more significant role in B. ermanii's expansion than any single dominant factor. Our results suggest that the interaction between topographic wetness index and the coldest month precipitation (Pre(1)), contributing 91% of the observed variability, primarily drove the expansion on the southern aspect by maintaining soil moisture, providing snowpack thermal insulation which enhanced soil temperatures, decomposition, and nutrient release in harsh conditions. On the northern aspect, the interaction between elevation and mean temperature of the warmest month explained 80% of the expansion. Meanwhile, the interaction between Pre(1) and mean temperature of the growing season explained 73% of the expansion on the western aspect. This study revealed that dominant factors driving treeline upward movement vary across different mountain aspects. Climate and topography play significant roles in determining tree distribution in the alpine treeline ecotone. This knowledge helps better understand and forecast treeline dynamics in response to global climate change.

Periglacial processes and permafrost-related landforms, such as rock glaciers, are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their reliance on sustained low temperatures to maintain permafrost integrity. Rising temperatures lead to permafrost thawing, increased active layer thickness, and ground instability, which disrupt the structural and ecological stability of these environments. Rock glaciers, which are ubiquitous in high mountain systems, are especially sensitive to these changes and serve as key geo-indicators of current or past alpine permafrost conditions, reflecting the multifaceted impacts of warming on both ecological and abiotic components. In this review, we synthesize current scientific knowledge on the complex and divergent responses of alpine rock glaciers to climate change, highlighting a wide range of methodologies employed to study the complex interactions between climatic drivers and rock glacier dynamics. We first explore ecological impacts, focusing on how climatic changes influence vegetation patterns, species composition, and overall biodiversity associated with rock glaciers. Subsequently, we examine the dynamic behavior of rock glaciers, including their structural integrity, movement patterns, and hydrological roles within high mountain ecosystems. By integrating findings from various disciplines, this review underscores the importance of multidisciplinary approaches and long-term monitoring to advance our understanding of rock glacier ecosystem dynamics and their role in periglacial processes under climate change. Our synthesis identifies critical knowledge gaps, such as the uncertain drivers of divergent rock glacier responses and the limited integration of ecological and abiotic data in existing studies. We highlight research priorities, including the establishment of regional monitoring networks and the development of predictive models that incorporate vegetation and permafrost interactions. These insights provide actionable guidance for adaptive management strategies to mitigate the ecological and geological impacts of climate change on these unique and sensitive environments.

River-controlled permafrost dynamics are crucial for sediment transport, infrastructure stability, and carbon cycle, yet are not well understood under climate change. Leveraging remotely sensed datasets, in-situ hydrological observations, and physics-based models, we reveal overall warming and widening rivers across the Tibetan Plateau in recent decades, driving accelerated sub-river permafrost thaw. River temperature of a representative (Tuotuohe River) on the central Tibetan Plateau, has increased notably (0.39 degrees C/decade) from 1985 to 2017, facilitating heat transfer into the underlying permafrost via both convection and conduction. Consequently, the permafrost beneath rivers warms faster (0.37 degrees C-0.66 degrees C/decade) and has a similar to 0.5 m thicker active layer than non-inundated permafrost (0.17 degrees C-0.49 degrees C/decade). With increasing river discharge, the inundated area expands laterally along the riverbed (16.4 m/decade), further accelerating permafrost thaw for previously non-inundated bars. Under future warmer and wetter climate, the anticipated intensification of sub-river permafrost degradation will pose risks to riverine infrastructure and amplify permafrost carbon release.

Snow distribution has been altered over the past decades under global warming, with a significant reduction in duration and extent of snow cover and an increase in unprecedented snowstorms across large areas in cold regions. The altered snow conditions are likely to have immediate (in winter) and carry-over or legacy (which an extended effect might continue in the following spring, summer and autumn) impacts on soil processes and functioning, but a quantification of the legacy effect of snow coverage alternation is still lacking. Furthermore, studies investigating the effect of snow cover changes on soil respiration, soil carbon pools and microbial activity are increasing, but contrasting results of different studies makes it difficult to assess the overall effect of snow cover changes and the underlying mechanisms, thus a systematic and comprehensive meta-analysis is required. In this study, we synthesized the results from 60 papers based on field snow manipulation experiments and conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate immediate and prolonged effects on eight variables related to soil carbon dynamics and microbial activity to snow coverage alternation. Results showed that snow removal had no significant effect on soil respiration, but increased dissolved organic carbon (DOC) (11.5%) and fungal abundance (32.0%). By contrast, snow addition significantly increased soil respiration (16.3%) and microbial biomass carbon (MBC) (6.6%). Snow addition had immediate and prolonged impacts on soil carbon dynamics and microbial activity lasting from winter to the following autumn, whereas an effect of snow removal on total organic carbon (TOC) and DOC was detectable only in the following spring. Snow depth, ecosystem and soil types determined the extent of the impact of snow treatments on soil respiration, DOC, MBC and microbial biomass nitrogen (MBN). Our findings provide critical insights into understanding how changes in snow coverage affect soil respiration and microbial activity. We suggest future field-based experiments to enhance our understanding the effect of climate change on soil processes and functioning in the winter and the following seasons.

This study uses a new dataset on gauge locations and catchments to assess the impact of 21st-century climate change on the hydrology of 221 high-mountain catchments in Central Asia. A steady-state stochastic soil moisture water balance model was employed to project changes in runoff and evaporation for 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, compared to the baseline period of 1979-2011. Baseline climate data were sourced from CHELSA V21 climatology, providing daily temperature and precipitation for each subcatchment. Future projections used bias-corrected outputs from four General Circulation Models under four pathways/scenarios (SSP1 RCP 2.6, SSP2 RCP 4.5, SSP3 RCP 7.0, SSP5 RCP 8.5). Global datasets informed soil parameter distribution, and glacier ablation data were integrated to refine discharge modeling and validated against long-term catchment discharge data. The atmospheric models predict an increase in median precipitation between 5.5% to 10.1% and a rise in median temperatures by 1.9 degrees C to 5.6 degrees C by the end of the 21st century, depending on the scenario and relative to the baseline. Hydrological model projections for this period indicate increases in actual evaporation between 7.3% to 17.4% and changes in discharge between + 1.1% to -2.7% for the SSP1 RCP 2.6 and SSP5 RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. Under the most extreme climate scenario (SSP5-8.5), discharge increases of 3.8% and 5.0% are anticipated during the first and second future periods, followed by a decrease of -2.7% in the third period. Significant glacier wastage is expected in lower-lying runoff zones, with overall discharge reductions in parts of the Tien Shan, including the Naryn catchment. Conversely, high-elevation areas in the Gissar-Alay and Pamir mountains are projected to experience discharge increases, driven by enhanced glacier ablation and delayed peak water, among other things. Shifts in precipitation patterns suggest more extreme but less frequent events, potentially altering the hydroclimate risk landscape in the region. Our findings highlight varied hydrological responses to climate change throughout high-mountain Central Asia. These insights inform strategies for effective and sustainable water management at the national and transboundary levels and help guide local stakeholders.

Driven by human activities and global climate change, the climate on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is experiencing a warming and humidifying trend. It significantly impacts the thermal-moisture dynamics in the active layer of the permafrost, which in turn affects the ecological environment of cold regions and the stability of cold region engineering. While the effect of air temperature on permafrost thaw has been well quantified, the processes and mechanisms behind the thermal-moisture response of the permafrost under the combined influence of increased rainfall and rising air temperature remain contentious and largely unknown. A coupled model was applied to quantify the impacts of increased rainfall, rising air temperature, and their compound effects on the thermal-moisture dynamics in the active layer, considering the sensible heat of rainwater in the ground surface energy balance and water balance process. The results indicate that the compound effect of warming and humidifying resulted in a significant increase in surface net radiation and evaporation latent heat, a more significant decrease in surface sensible heat, and a smaller impact of rainfall sensible heat, leading to an increase in surface soil heat flux. The compound effect of warming and humidifying leads to a significant increase in the liquid water flux with temperature gradient. The increase in liquid water flux due to the temperature gradient is larger than that of warming alone but smaller than the effect of humidifying alone. Warming and humidifying result in a smaller increase in soil moisture content during the warm season compared to rainfall increases alone. The thermal conductivity heat flux in the active layer increases significantly during the cold season but less than the effect of warming alone. The convective heat flux of liquid water flux increases noticeably during the warm season but less than the effect of rainfall increases alone. Increased rainfall significantly cools the soil during the warm season, while both warming and humidifying lead to a more pronounced warming effect on the soil during the cold season than during the warm season. An increase in the average annual temperature by 1.0 degrees C leads to a downward shift of the permafrost table by 10 cm, while an increase in rainfall by 100 mm causes an upward shift of the permafrost table by 8 cm. The combined effect of warming and humidifying results in a downward shift of the permafrost table by 6 cm. Under the influence of climate warming and humidifying, the cooling effect of increased rainfall on permafrost is relatively small, and the warming effect of increased temperature still dominates.