To address data scarcity on long-term glacial discharge and inadequacies in simulating and predicting hydrological processes in the Tien Shan, this study analysed the observed discharge at multiple timescales over 1980s-2017 and projected changes within a representative glacierized high-mountain region: eastern Tien Shan, Central Asia. Hydrological processes were simulated to predict changes under four future scenarios (SSP1, SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5) using a classical hydrological model coupled with a glacier dynamics module. Discharge rates at annual, monthly (June, July, August) and daily timescales were obtained from two hydrological gauges: Urumqi Glacier No.1 hydrological station (UGH) and Zongkong station (ZK). Overall, annual and summer discharge increased significantly ( p < 0.05) at both stations over the study period. Their intra-annual variations mainly resulted from differences in their recharge mechanisms. The simulations show that a tipping point in annual discharge at UGH may occur between 2018 and 2024 under the four SSPs scenarios. Glacial discharge is predicted to cease earlier at ZK than at UGH. This relates to glacier type and size, suggesting basins with heavily developed small glaciers will reach peak discharge sooner, resulting in an earlier freshwater supply challenge. These findings serve as a reference for research into glacial runoff in Central Asia and provide a decision-making basis for planning local water-resource projects.

The eastern Tien Shan hosts substantial mid-latitude glaciers, but in situ glacier mass balance records are extremely sparse. Haxilegen Glacier No. 51 (eastern Tien Shan, China) is one of the very few well-measured glaciers, and comprehensive glaciological measurements were implemented from 1999 to 2011 and re-established in 2017. Mass balance of Haxilegen Glacier No. 51 (1999-2015) has recently been reported, but the mass balance record has not extended to the period before 1999. Here, we used a 1:50,000-scale topographic map and long-range terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) data to calculate the area, volume, and mass changes for Haxilegen Glacier No. 51 from 1964 to 2018. Haxilegen Glacier No. 51 lost 0.34 km(2) (at a rate of 0.006 km(2) a(-1) or 0.42% a(-1)) of its area during the period 1964-2018. The glacier experienced clearly negative surface elevation changes and geodetic mass balance. Thinning occurred almost across the entire glacier surface, with a mean value of -0.43 +/- 0.12 m a(-1). The calculated average geodetic mass balance was -0.36 +/- 0.12 m w.e. a(-1). Without considering the error bounds of mass balance estimates, glacier mass loss over the past 50 years was in line with the observed and modeled mass balance (-0.37 +/- 0.22 m w.e. a(-1)) that was published for short time intervals since 1999 but was slightly less negative than glacier mass loss in the entire eastern Tien Shan. Our results indicate that Riegl VZ (R)-6000 TLS can be widely used for mass balance measurements of unmonitored individual glaciers.