Concrete gravity dams, forming a quarter of the ICOLD database with over 61,000 dams, often surpass 50 years of service, necessitating increased maintenance and safety scrutiny. Given the aging and advancing seismic safety methods, reevaluating their seismic resilience, considering material degradation and concrete heterogeneity, is imperative. This study conducts a comprehensive seismic fragility assessment of the Pine Flat Dam at lifecycle stages of 1, 50 and 100 years, accounting for material degradation due to aging and uncertainties from concrete heterogeneity. It develops a 2D dam-foundation-reservoir model with fluid-structure-soil interaction and material nonlinearity using the concrete damage plasticity model. The assessment includes 55 ground motions, selected via the conditional mean spectrum method, representing five return periods from 475 to 10,000 years. Fragility curves are developed by fitting a lognormal distribution to failure probabilities at varying intensities. These curves are compared using damage indices like crest displacement and stress at the dam's neck and heel. Aging increases failure probability, correlating with age and return period, as shown by the leftward shift of fragility curves, while concrete heterogeneity adds uncertainty. The results emphasize the critical need for ongoing seismic fragility reassessments, accounting for aging, environmental exposure, and seismic demands on dam safety.

This study addresses the vital issue of the variability associated with modeling decisions in dam seismic analysis. Traditionally, structural modeling and simulations employ a progressive approach, where more complex models are gradually incorporated. For example, if previous levels indicate insufficient seismic safety margins, a more advanced analysis is then undertaken. Recognizing the constraints and evaluating the influence of various methods is essential for improving the comprehension and effectiveness of dam safety assessments. To this end, an extensive parametric study is carried out to evaluate the seismic response variability of the Koyna and Pine Flat dams using various solution approaches and model complexities. Numerical simulations are conducted in a 2D framework across three software programs, encompassing different dam system configurations. Additional complexity is introduced by simulating reservoir dynamics with Westergaard-added mass or acoustic elements. Linear and nonlinear analyses are performed, incorporating pertinent material properties, employing the concrete damage plasticity model in the latter. Modal parameters and crest displacement time histories are used to highlight variability among the selected solution procedures and model complexities. Finally, recommendations are made regarding the adequacy and robustness of each method, specifying the scenarios in which they are most effectively applied.