AimGlobally, forests at the alpine-treeline ecotone (ATE) are considered sensitive to warming temperatures; however, responses to recent climate change show high variability and many underlying processes remain unclear. This study aims to provide further insight into possible ATE forest responses to climate change by examining spatiotemporal patterns in recent tree regeneration and growth responses to climate across treeline forms.LocationThis study is situated at the ATE in the Rocky Mountain and Columbia Mountain ranges in central British Columbia, Canada.TaxonGymnosperms - subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa Hooker (Nutall)).MethodsWe collected tree and stand data from 48 plots across five study sites. Plots were distributed across three treeline stand types: (i) islands; (ii) abrupt; and (iii) fringes of regeneration adjacent to tree islands. We used a dendrochronological approach to analyse the ages of recently established trees in fringe stand types, detect long-term trends in annual tree growth and quantify climate-growth relationships.ResultsSeedling recruitment adjacent to tree islands occurred over a period of approximately 40 years (1960-2000), with two regeneration pulses in the late 1970s and 1980s. Abrupt and fringe trees showed a similar age structure and annual radial growth has increased in most trees over the past 30 years. Across the study region and stand types, summer temperature has the strongest influence on radial growth. Over the past 70 years, growth in tree islands has become increasingly correlated with growing season temperature variables.Main ConclusionsForest growth and structure have changed in coherent spatial and temporal patterns over recent decades at the ATE in central BC. Projections for sustained warming in this region will likely result in increased tree growth and potential continued expansion of forests into untreed areas below the treeline. These changes will have implications for hydrological regimes, wildlife habitat and carbon sequestration.

Extensive, detailed information on the spatial distribution of active layer thickness (ALT) in northern Alaska and how it evolves over time could greatly aid efforts to assess the effects of climate change on the region and also help to quantify greenhouse gas emissions generated due to permafrost thaw. For this reason, we have been developing high-resolution maps of ALT throughout northern Alaska. The maps are produced by upscaling from high-resolution swaths of estimated ALT retrieved from airborne P-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images collected for three different years. The upscaling was accomplished by using hundreds of thousands of randomly selected samples from the SAR-derived swaths of ALT to train a machine learning regression algorithm supported by numerous spatial data layers. In order to validate the maps, thousands of randomly selected samples of SAR-derived ALT were excluded from the training in order to serve as validation pixels; error performance calculations relative to these samples yielded root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) of 7.5-9.1 cm, with bias errors of magnitude under 0.1 cm. The maps were also compared to ALT measurements collected at a number of in situ test sites; error performance relative to the site measurements yielded RMSEs of approximately 11-12 cm and bias of 2.7-6.5 cm. These data are being used to investigate regional patterns and underlying physical controls affecting permafrost degradation in the tundra biome.

Anticipated permafrost thaw in upcoming decades may exert significant impacts on forest soil nitrogen (N) dynamics. The rate of soil N mineralization (Nmin) plays a crucial role in determining soil N availability. Nevertheless, our understanding remains limited regarding how biotic and abiotic factors influence the Nmin of forest soil in response to permafrost thaw. In this study, we investigated the implications of permafrost thaw on Nmin within a hemiboreal forest based on a field investigation along the degree of permafrost thaw, having monitored permafrost conditions for eight years. The results indicate that permafrost thaw markedly decreased Nmin values. Furthermore, Nmin demonstrated positive associations with soil substrates (namely, soil organic carbon and soil total nitrogen), microbial biomass carbon and nitrogen, and soil moisture content. The decline in Nmin due to permafrost thaw was primarily attributed to the diminished quality and quantity of soil substrates rather than alterations in plant community composition. Collectively, our results underscore the pivotal role of soil substrate and microbial biomass in guiding forest soil N transformations in the face of climate-induced permafrost thaw.

Accurate information on snow cover extent plays a crucial role in understanding regional and global climate change, as well as the water cycle, and supports the sustainable development of socioeconomic systems. Remote sensing technology is a vital tool for monitoring snow cover' extent, but accurate identification of shallow snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau has remained challenging. Focusing on the Three-Rivers Headwater Region (THR), this study addressed this issue by developing a snow cover discrimination model (SCDM) using a random forests (RF) algorithm. Using daily observed snow depth (SD) data from 15 stations in the THR during the period 2001-2013, a comprehensive analysis was conducted, considering various factors influencing regional snow cover distribution, such as land surface reflectance, land surface temperature (LST), Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Normalized Difference Forest Snow Index (NDFSI). The key results were as follows: (1) Optimal model performance was achieved with the parameters Ntree, Mtry, and ratio set to 1000, 2, and 19, respectively. The SCDM outperformed other snow cover products in both pixel-scale and local spatial-scale discrimination. (2) Spectral information of snow cover proved to be the most influential auxiliary variable in discrimination, and the combined inclusion of NDVI and LST improved model performance. (3) The SCDM achieved accuracy of 99.04% for thick snow cover (SD > 4 cm) and 98.54% for shallow snow cover (SD <= 4 cm), significantly (p < 0.01) surpassing the traditional dynamic threshold method. This study can offer valuable reference for monitoring snow cover dynamics in regions with limited data availability.

It is widely accepted that global warming is affecting forests near the tree line by increasing tree growth in these cold-limited environments. However, since about 1970, a reduction in tree growth near the tree line has been observed in response to warming and increased drought stress. This reduction in tree growth has been mainly reported in forests of the northern hemisphere but less studied in southern forests. In this study, we investigated tree populations of Nothofagus pumilio located near the arboreal altitudinal limit in the central Patagonian Andes (45-47 degrees S, Aysen region, Chile). In this region, warming has been accompanied by increased drought conditions since the 2000s. We explored whether this climatic variability has promoted or reduced tree growth at the regional scale in tree lines of these broadleaved temperate forests of central Patagonia. We constructed tree-ring chronologies and determined common growth patterns and trends, and then analyzed the influence of recent climate. We detected a significant change in the slope of regional growth trends between the periods 1955-1985 and 1985-2015. We found that positive growth trends in the period 1955-1985 were associated with warmer and drier springs. However, after 1985, we found a stabilization in N. pumilio growth associated with a steady increase in temperature in autumn. Our results support the idea that more frequent warm autumns, with very thin or no snow cover, have stabilized tree growth due to water deficit at the end of the growing season of N. pumilio. The predicted climate change scenario of increasing temperatures and drought in central Patagonia may increase competition among trees for water, particularly at the end of the growing season. Consequently, we could expect a decreasing forest growth trend in central Patagonia, potentially impacting forest dynamics of these southern forests.

Knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of active layer thickness (ALT) throughout northern Alaska would help to understand the effects of climate change in the region, as well as to quantify how much the permafrost degradation manifestly in progress there is contributing to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. For this reason, we are developing extensive high-resolution maps of ALT in northern Alaska. We use machine learning along with an extensive set of spatial data layers to upscale ALT from thousands of training pixels taken from high resolution swaths of estimated ALT derived from airborne polarimetric P-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR). The resulting maps of up-scaled ALT have been compared to thousands of validation samples set aside from the PolSAR-derived swaths and to in situ ALT measurements. The maps have achieved root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) of 5-7 cm relative to validation samples, and RMSEs of approximately 10-12 cm relative to in situ ALT measurements.

Rapid climate warming has widely been considered as the main driver of recent increases in Arctic tundra productivity. Field observations and remote sensing both show that tundra greening has been widespread, but heterogeneity in regional and landscape-scale trends suggest that additional controls are mediating the response of tundra vegetation to warming. In this study, we examined the relationship between changes in vegetation productivity in the western Canadian Arctic and biophysical variables by analyzing trends in the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) obtained from nonparametric regression of annual Landsat surface reflectance composites. We used Random Forests classification and regression tree modelling to predict the trajectory and magnitude of greening from 1984 to 2016 and identify biophysical controls. More than two-thirds of our study area showed statistically significant increases in vegetation productivity, but observed changes were heterogeneous, occurring most rapidly within areas of the Southern Arctic that were: (1) dominated by dwarf and upright shrub cover types, (2) moderately sloping, and (3) located at lower elevation. These findings suggest that the response of tundra vegetation to warming is mediated by regional- and landscape-scale variation in microclimate, topography and soil moisture, and physiological differences among plant functional groups. Our work highlights the potential of the joint analysis of annual remotely sensed vegetation indices and broad-scale biophysical data to understand spatial variation in tundra vegetation change.

Numerous studies have reported that treelines are moving to higher elevations and higher latitudes. Most treelines are temperature limited and warmer climate expands the area in which trees are capable of growing. Hence, climate change has been assumed to be the main driver behind this treeline movement. The latest review of treeline studies was published in 2009 by Harsch et al. Since then, a plethora of papers have been published studying local treeline migration. Here we bring together this knowledge through a review of 142 treeline related publications, including 477 study locations. We summarize the information known about factors limiting tree-growth at and near treelines. Treeline migration is not only dependent on favorable growing conditions but also requires seedling establishment and survival above the current treeline. These conditions appear to have become favorable at many locations, particularly so in recent years. The review revealed that at 66% of these treeline sites forest cover had increased in elevational or latitudinal extent. The physical form of treelines influences how likely they are to migrate and can be used as an indicator when predicting future treeline movements. Our analysis also revealed that while a greater percentage of elevational treelines are moving, the latitudinal treelines are capable of moving at greater horizontal speed. This can potentially have substantial impacts on ecosystem carbon storage. To conclude the review, we present the three main hypotheses as to whether ecosystem carbon budgets will be reduced, increased or remain the same due to treeline migration. While the answer still remains under debate, we believe that all three hypotheses are likely to apply depending on the encroached ecosystem. Concerningly, evidence is emerging on how treeline migration may turn tundra landscapes from net sinks to net sources of carbon dioxide in the future.

Issue Despite their rather similar climatic conditions, eastern Eurasia and northern North America are largely covered by different plant functional types (deciduous or evergreen boreal forest) composed of larch or pine, spruce and fir, respectively. I propose that these deciduous and evergreen boreal forests represent alternative quasi-stable states, triggered by their different northern tree refugia that reflect the different environmental conditions experienced during the Last Glacial. Evidence This view is supported by palaeoecological and environmental evidence. Once established, Asian larch forests are likely to have stabilized through a complex vegetation-fire-permafrost soil-climate feedback system. Conclusion With respect to future forest developments, this implies that Asian larch forests are likely to be governed by long-term trajectories and are therefore largely resistant to natural climate variability on time-scales shorter than millennia. The effects of regional human impact and anthropogenic global warming might, however, cause certain stability thresholds to be crossed, meaning that irreversible transitions occur and resulting in marked consequences for ecosystem services on these human-relevant time-scales.

Larch-dominant communities are the most extensive high-latitude forests in Eurasia and are experiencing the strongest impacts from warming temperatures. We analyzed larch (Larix dahurica Turcz) growth index (GI) response to climate change. The studied larch-dominant communities are located within the permafrost zone of Northern Siberia at the northern tree limit (ca. N 67A degrees 38', E 99A degrees 07'). Methods included dendrochronology, analysis of climate variables, root zone moisture content, and satellite-derived gross (GPP) and net (NPP) primary productivity. It was found that larch response to warming included a period of increased annual growth increment (GI) (from the 1970s to ca. 1995) with a follow on GI decline. Increase in GI correlated with summer air temperature, whereas an observed decrease in GI was caused by water stress (vapor pressure deficit and drought increase). Water stress impact on larch growth in permafrost was not observed before the onset of warming (ca. 1970). Water limitation was also indicated by GI dependence on soil moisture stored during the previous year. Water stress was especially pronounced for stands growing on rocky soils with low water-holding capacity. GPP of larch communities showed an increasing trend, whereas NPP stagnated. A similar pattern of GI response to climate warming has also been observed for Larix sibirica Ledeb, Pinus sibirica Du Tour, and Abies sibirica Ledeb in the forests of southern Siberia. Thus, warming in northern Siberia permafrost zone resulted in an initial increase in larch growth from the 1970s to the mid-1990s. After that time, larch growth increment has decreased. Since ca. 1990, water stress at the beginning of the vegetative period became, along with air temperature, a main factor affecting larch growth within the permafrost zone.