This paper introduces a novel framework to define limit states for the seismic fragility assessment of circular tunnels in soil. A numerical framework is developed for this purpose, focusing on the response of tunnels subjected to ground seismic shaking in the transverse direction. New limit states are defined based on the ovaling deformation of the tunnel, corresponding to different levels of liner stiffness degradation caused by seismic shaking. The latter is evaluated via nonlinear static pushover analyses of the examined ground-tunnel configurations. Nonlinear dynamic analyses are performed to evaluate the demand of examined tunnels and develop Probabilistic Seismic Demand Models (PSDMs). The uncertainties related with the definitions of capacity and demand are thoroughly evaluated based on the results of the nonlinear static pushover and dynamic analyses, respectively. The proposed framework is applied to a 6 m diameter circular tunnel embedded in uniform clayey soil deposit at a burial depth of 15 m. Various assumptions are made regarding the thickness and mechanical properties of the liner and the soil, leading to the investigation of 27 ground-tunnel configurations. A suite of ground motions is selected to perform dynamic analyses of each examined configuration. Based on the results of the analyses new PSDMs and PGA-based fragility functions are derived. Comparisons of the proposed fragility curves with existing, empirical, and analytical fragility curves for tunnels, reveal differences, which in some cases are significant and are mainly attributed to the different definitions of Engineering Demand Parameters (EDPs) and limit states between the compared curves, as well as to different assumptions in the analytical frameworks proposed by various studies. The proposed framework may be applied to other ground-tunnel configurations to develop fragility functions for a more rigorous risk and resilience assessment of these types of systems.

Tunnels are of significant importance in the sustainable development of global urban areas, particularly in metropolitan areas. It is of the utmost importance to evaluate the seismic performance of tunnels across a wide spectrum of earthquake intensities. In order to address this, our study presents a framework for the assessment of seismic risk in tunnels. This study employs the city of Shanghai's urban metro tunnels as case studies. The nominal values of seismic risk for the three main damage states-minor, moderate, and major-were calculated. Furthermore, the influence of utilizing disparate fragility functions on expected seismic risk assessments was investigated. In this framework, the probability density functions of the different fragility curve models are employed to treat the probability values associated with them as random variables. This approach aims to facilitate the propagation of IMV in seismic risk assessments. The results demonstrate that the Bayesian framework efficiently incorporates the full range of input model variability into risk estimation. The findings of this study offer a foundation for decision-making processes, seismic risk assessments, and the resilience management of urban infrastructure.