Rising temperatures due to climate change can significantly impact the freeze-thaw condition of airport pavements in cold regions. This case study investigates the implications of warming temperatures on the freeze-thaw penetration and frost heave of pavements in critical airports across Canada. To this end, different methods were used in the quantification process through climate change simulations considering emission scenario RCP8.5 in 20 and 40 year time horizons. The results show that climate change would have different design implications for airport pavements, depending on their location. The predictions suggest a shallower frost penetration depth, and possibly less frost heave, for the airports not underlain by permafrost, while airports over permafrost areas might experience an increase in thickness of the active layer, ranging from 41 to 57 percent, by 2061. Among the different methods used in this study, it was observed that some methods performed better in predicting the frost depth of fine soils, while others worked better in the frost depth prediction of coarse soils. The results indicate the need for more mechanistic models to provide a more realistic prediction of freeze-thaw penetration, as compared to existing empirical models.

Study region: Upper Heihe River Basin, Northwest China. Study focus: We investigated potential climate change under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) and their impacts on frozen ground in the upper Heihe River Basin using the ensemble climate data from eight general circulation models and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). New hydrological insights for the region: Air and ground freezing indices declined significantly during the baseline period (1976-2015), whereas the thawing indices increased, indicating the heat accumulation in study area. The frost depth, which refers to the potential frost depth of active layer in permafrost areas and the maximum frost depth in seasonally frozen areas, decreased significantly at the rate of 3 cm/10 yr. The SWAT-simulation and gray relational analysis revealed that soil water was controlled by precipitation and frost depth in spring and autumn. Compared to that of the baseline, the projected frost depth is projected to decline by 0.07-0.1 m during the near future (2020-2059) and 0.08-0.36 m for the far future (2060-2099). In addition, we developed a long-term warning system, which indicates that the degree of frozen ground degradation would be mild during the near future and would be severe for the far future under RCP 8.5. This study provides valuable insights into the protection of frozen-ground in the Upper Heihe River Basin.

In permafrost regions, the thaw depth strongly controls shallow subsurface hydrologic processes that in turn dominate catchment runoff. In seasonally freezing soils, the maximum expected frost depth is an important geotechnical engineering design parameter. Thus, accurately calculating the depth of soil freezing or thawing is an important challenge in cold regions engineering and hydrology. The Stefan equation is a common approach for predicting the frost or thaw depth, but this equation assumes negligible soil heat capacity and thus exaggerates the rate of freezing or thawing. The Neumann equation, which accommodates sensible heat, is an alternative implicit equation for calculating freeze-thaw penetration. This study details the development of correction factors to improve the Stefan equation by accounting for the influence of the soil heat capacity and non-zero initial temperatures. The correction factors are first derived analytically via comparison to the Neumann solution, but the resultant equations are complex and implicit. Explicit equations are obtained by fitting polynomial functions to the analytical results. These simple correction factors are shown to significantly improve the performance of the Stefan equation for several hypothetical soil freezing and thawing scenarios. Copyright (c) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.