The subsurface structure of permafrost is of high significance to forecast landscape dynamics and the engineering stability of infrastructure under human impacts and climate warming, which is a modern challenge for Arctic communities. Application of the non-destructive method of geo-penetrating radar (GPR) survey is a promising way to study it. The study program, which could be used for planning and monitoring of measures of adaptation of Arctic communities to environmental changes is provided in this paper. The main principle was to use etalons of coupled radargrams and archive geological data to interpret changes in the permafrost structure from a grid of 5-10 m deep GPR transects. Here, we show the application of GPR to reconstruct and predict hazards of activation of cryogenic processes from the spatial variability in the structure of permafrost. The cumulative effects of the village and climate change on permafrost were manifested in changes in the active layer thickness from 0.5-1.0 m to up to 3.5 m. Despite that the permafrost degradation has declined due to the improved maintenance of infrastructure and the effects of ground filling application, the hazards of heaving and thermokarst remain for the built-up area in Lorino.

In this article, we consider the problem of thermal response of the near-surface ice-rich permafrost to the effects of linear infrastructure and current climate change. First, we emphasize the scientific and practical significance of the study and briefly describe permafrost conditions and related hazards in the study area. Then we present a mathematical model which accounts for the actual process of soil thawing and freezing and consists of two nonlinear equations: heat conduction and moisture transfer. Numerical calculations were made to predict temperature and moisture conditions in the railroad embankment, taking into account solar radiation, snow cover, rainfall infiltration, and evaporation from the surface. The numerical results indicate that moisture migration and infiltration play the primary role in the development of frost heaving and thaw settlement. During winter, the frost-heave extent is monotonously increased due to pore moisture migration to the freezing front. Strong volume expansion (dilatation) is observed near the surface of the active layer with the onset of the warm season and meltwater infiltration. Settlement of the upper layers of the soil occurs in the summer months (June-August) when there is intense evaporation due to drying. Autumn rains stop the process of thaw settlement by increasing the soil moisture. The above processes are repeated cyclically every year. A frozen core shifts to the shaded side of the embankment under the influence of variations in the solar radiation. Over time, the total moisture content of the frozen core is increased which increases differential heaving and negatively affects the stress-strain state in the embankment. The quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the processes of frost heaving and thaw settlement are obtained in the annual and long-term cycles.