Study region: The source area of the Yangtze River, a typical catchment in the cryosphere on the Tibet Plateau, was used to develop and validate a distributed hydrothermal coupling model. Study focus: Climate change has caused significant changes in hydrological processes in the cryosphere, and related research has become hot topic. The source area of the Yangtze River (SAYR) is a key catchment for studies of hydrological processes in the cryosphere, which contains widespread glacier, snow, and permafrost. However, the current hydrological modeling of the SAYR rarely depicts the process of glacier/snow and permafrost runoff from the perspective of coupled water and heat transfer, resulting in distortion of simulations of hydrological processes. Therefore, we developed a distributed hydrothermal coupling model, namely WEP-SAYR, based on the WEP-L (Water and energy transfer process in large river basins) model by introducing modules for glacier and snow melt and permafrost freezing and thawing. New hydrological insights for the region: In the WEP-SAYR model, the soil hydrothermal transfer equations were improved, and a freezing point equation for permafrost was introduced. In addition, the glacier and snow meltwater processes were described using the temperature index model. Compared to previously applied models, the WEP-SAYR portrays in more detail glacier/ snow melting, dynamic changes in permafrost water and heat coupling, and runoff dynamics, with physically meaningful and easily accessible model parameters. The model can describe the soil temperature and moisture changes in soil layers at different depths from 0 to 140 cm. Moreover, the model has a good accuracy in simulating the daily/monthly runoff and evaporation. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency exceeded 0.75, and the relative error was controlled within +/- 20 %. The results showed that the WEP-SAYR model balances the efficiency of hydrological simulation in large scale catchments and the accurate portrayal of the cryosphere elements, which provides a reference for hydrological analysis of other catchments in the cryosphere.

Third Pole natural cascade alpine lakes (NCALs) are exceptionally sensitive to climate change, yet the underlying cryosphere-hydrological processes and associated societal impacts are largely unknown. Here, with a state-of-the-art cryosphere-hydrology-lake-dam model, we quantified the notable high-mountain Hoh-Xil NCALs basin (including Lakes Zonag, Kusai, Hedin Noel, and Yanhu, from upstream to downstream) formed by the Lake Zonag outburst in September 2011. We demonstrate that long-term increased precipitation and accelerated ice and snow melting as well as short-term heavy precipitation and earthquake events were responsible for the Lake Zonag outburst; while the permafrost degradation only had a marginal impact on the lake inflows but was crucial to lakeshore stability. The quadrupling of the Lake Yanhu area since 2012 was due to the tripling of inflows (from 0.25 to 0.76 km(3)/year for 1999 to 2010 and 2012 to 2018, respectively). Prediction of the NCALs changes suggests a high risk of the downstream Qinghai-Tibet Railway, necessitating timely adaptions/mitigations.