The presence of taliks (perennially unfrozen zones in permafrost areas) adversely affects the thermal stability of infrastructure in cold regions, including roads. The role of heat advection on talik development and feedback on permafrost degradation has not been quantified methodically in this context. We incorporate a surface energy balance model into a coupled groundwater flow and energy transport numerical model (SUTRA-ice). The model, calibrated with long-term observations (1997-2018 on the Alaska Highway), is used to investigate and quantify the role of heat advection on talik initiation and development under a road embankment. Over the 25-year simulation period, the new model is driven by reconstructed meteorological data and has a good agreement with near surface soil temperatures. The model successfully reproduces the increasing depth to the permafrost table (mean absolute error <0.2 m), and talik development. The results demonstrate that heat advection provides an additional energy source that expedites the rate of permafrost thaw and roughly doubles the rate of permafrost table deepening, compared to purely conductive thawing. Talik initially formed and grew over time under the combined effect of water flow, snow insulation, road construction and climate warming. Talik formation creates a new thermal state under the road embankment, resulting in acceleration of underlying permafrost degradation, due to the positive feedback of heat accumulation created by trapped unfrozen water. In a changing climate, mobile water flow will play a more important role in permafrost thaw and talik development under road embankments, and is likely to significantly increase maintenance costs and reduce the long-term stability of the infrastructure.

The impacts of ongoing climate warming on cold-regions hydrogeology and groundwater resources have created a need to develop groundwater models adapted to these environments. Although permafrost is considered relatively impermeable to groundwater flow, permafrost thaw may result in potential increases in surface water infiltration, groundwater recharge, and hydrogeologic connectivity that can impact northern water resources. To account for these feedbacks, groundwater models that include the dynamic effects of freezing and thawing on ground properties and thermal regimes have been recently developed. However, these models are more complex than traditional hydrogeology numerical models due to the inclusion of nonlinear freeze-thaw processes and complex thermal boundary conditions. As such, their use to date has been limited to a small community of modeling experts. This article aims to provide guidelines and tips on cold-regions groundwater modeling for those with previous modeling experience. This article is categorized under: Engineering Water > Methods Science of Water > Hydrological Processes

Fire frequency and severity are increasing in high-latitude regions, but the degree to which groundwater flow impacts the response of permafrost to fire remains poorly understood. Here we use the Anaktuvuk River Fire (Alaska, USA) as an example for simulating groundwater-permafrost interactions following fire. We identify key thermal and hydrologic parameters controlling permafrost response to fire both with and without groundwater flow, and separate the relative influence of changes to the water and energy balances on active layer thickness. Our results show that mineral soil porosity, which influences the bulk subsurface thermal conductivity, is a key parameter controlling active layer response to fire in both the absence and presence of groundwater flow. However, including groundwater flow in models increases the perceived importance of subsurface hydrologic properties, such as the soil permeability, and decreases the perceived importance of subsurface thermal properties, such as the thermal conductivity of soil solids. Furthermore, we demonstrate that changes to the energy balance (increased soil temperature) drive increased active layer thickness following fire, while changes to the water balance (decreased groundwater recharge) lead to reduced landscape-scale variability in active layer thickness and groundwater discharge to surface water features such as streams. These results indicate that explicit consideration of groundwater flow is critical to understanding how permafrost environments respond to fire. While scientists know permafrost (permanently frozen ground) often thaws following fire, it is not well understood if groundwater movement enhances or reduces this thawing process. In this study, we simulate the response of permafrost to fire using models that both include and ignore groundwater flow with many different model input data sets. Our results show that when groundwater flow is ignored, the relative importance of soil properties associated with heat movement may be overestimated, and the importance of soil properties associated with water movement are likely to be underestimated. Additionally, we show that increased soil temperature is the most important factor leading to deeper permafrost thaw following fire. However, lower groundwater recharge rates at burned locations decreased permafrost thaw differences between upland and lowland regions of a watershed, as well as groundwater flow into streams and rivers.