Multi-source precipitation products (MSPs) are critical for hydrologic modeling, but their spatial and temporal heterogeneity and uncertainty present challenges to simulation accuracy that need to be addressed urgently. This study assessed the impact of different precipitation data sources on hydrologic modeling in an arid basin. There were seven precipitation products and meteorological station interpolated data that were used to drive the hydrological model, and we evaluated their performance by fusing the six precipitation products through the dynamic bayesian averaging algorithm. Ultimately, the runoff simulation uncertainty was quantified based on the DREAM algorithm, and the information transfer entropy was used to quantify the differences in hydrologic simulation processes driven by different precipitation data. The results showed that CMFD and ERA5 weights were higher, and the DBMA fused precipitation annual mean value was about 309.83 mm with good simulation accuracy (RMSE of 1.46 and R-2 of 0.75). The simulation was satisfactory (NSE >0.80) after parameter calibration and data assimilation for all driving data, with CHIRPS and TRMM performed better in the common mode, and HRLT and CMFD performed excellently in the glacier mode. The DREAM algorithm indicated less uncertainty for DBMA, CHIRPS and HRLT data. The entropy of information transfer revealed that precipitation occupied a significant position in information transfer, especially affecting evapotranspiration and surface soil moisture. CMFD and TPS CMADS were highest in snow water equivalent information entropy, and CHIRPS and TPS CMADS were highest in evapotranspiration information entropy. CDR, CHIRPS, ERA5-Land and IDW STATION had the highest snow water equivalent information entropy, DBMA and CMORPH had the highest runoff information entropy, CHIRPS and TRMM had the highest soil moisture information entropy, whereas ERA5, HRLT, and TPS CMADS had the highest evapotranspiration information entropy in glacial mode. This study reveals significant differences between different precipitation data sources in hydrological modeling of arid basin, which is an important reference for future water resources management and climate change adaptation strategies.

Accurately quantifying the impact of permafrost degradation and soil freeze-thaw cycles on hydrological processes while minimizing the reliance on observational data are challenging issues in hydrological modeling in cold regions. In this study, we developed a modular distributed hydro-thermal coupled hydrological model for cold regions (DHTC) that features a flexible structure. The DHTC model couples heat-water transport processes by employing the conduction-advection heat transport equation and Richard equation considering ice-water phase change. Additionally, the DHTC model integrates the influence of organic matter into the hydrothermal parameterization scheme and includes a subpermafrost module based on the flow duration curve analysis to estimate cold-season streamflow sustained by subpermafrost groundwater. Moreover, we incorporated energy consumption due to ice phase changes to the available energy, enhancing the accuracy of evaporation estimation in cold regions. A comprehensive evaluation of the DHTC model was conducted. At the point scale, the DHTC model accurately replicates daily soil temperature and moisture dynamics at various depths, achieving average R-2 of 0.98 and 0.87, and average RMSE of 0.61degree celsius and 0.03 m(3)m(-3), respectively. At the basin scale, DHTC outperformed (Daily: R-2 = 0.66, RMSE = 0.75 mm; Monthly: R-2 = 0.90, RMSE = 15.7 mm) the GLDAS/FLDAS Noah, GLDAS/VIC, and PML-V2 models in evapotranspiration simulation. The DHTC model also demonstrated reasonable performance in simulating daily (NSE = 0.70, KGE = 0.84), monthly (NSE = 0.86, KGE = 0.90), and multi-year monthly (NSE = 0.97, KGE = 0.93) streamflow in the Source Regions of Yangtze River. DHTC also successfully reproduced the snow depth in basin-averaged time series and spatial distributions (RMSE = 0.86 cm). The DHTC model provides a robust tool for exploring the interactions between permafrost and hydrological processes, and their responses to climate change.

This study uses a new dataset on gauge locations and catchments to assess the impact of 21st-century climate change on the hydrology of 221 high-mountain catchments in Central Asia. A steady-state stochastic soil moisture water balance model was employed to project changes in runoff and evaporation for 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, compared to the baseline period of 1979-2011. Baseline climate data were sourced from CHELSA V21 climatology, providing daily temperature and precipitation for each subcatchment. Future projections used bias-corrected outputs from four General Circulation Models under four pathways/scenarios (SSP1 RCP 2.6, SSP2 RCP 4.5, SSP3 RCP 7.0, SSP5 RCP 8.5). Global datasets informed soil parameter distribution, and glacier ablation data were integrated to refine discharge modeling and validated against long-term catchment discharge data. The atmospheric models predict an increase in median precipitation between 5.5% to 10.1% and a rise in median temperatures by 1.9 degrees C to 5.6 degrees C by the end of the 21st century, depending on the scenario and relative to the baseline. Hydrological model projections for this period indicate increases in actual evaporation between 7.3% to 17.4% and changes in discharge between + 1.1% to -2.7% for the SSP1 RCP 2.6 and SSP5 RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. Under the most extreme climate scenario (SSP5-8.5), discharge increases of 3.8% and 5.0% are anticipated during the first and second future periods, followed by a decrease of -2.7% in the third period. Significant glacier wastage is expected in lower-lying runoff zones, with overall discharge reductions in parts of the Tien Shan, including the Naryn catchment. Conversely, high-elevation areas in the Gissar-Alay and Pamir mountains are projected to experience discharge increases, driven by enhanced glacier ablation and delayed peak water, among other things. Shifts in precipitation patterns suggest more extreme but less frequent events, potentially altering the hydroclimate risk landscape in the region. Our findings highlight varied hydrological responses to climate change throughout high-mountain Central Asia. These insights inform strategies for effective and sustainable water management at the national and transboundary levels and help guide local stakeholders.

Floods in southwestern Saudi Arabia, especially in the Asir region, are among the major natural disasters caused by natural and human factors. In this region, flash floods that occur in the Wadi Hail Basin greatly affect human life and activities, damaging property, the built environment, infrastructure, landscapes, and facilities. A previous study carried out for the same basin has effectively revealed zones of flood risk using such an approach. However, the utilization of the HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System) model and IMERG data for delineating areas prone to flash floods remain unexplored. In response to this advantage, this work primarily focused on flood generation assessment in the Wadi Hail Basin, one of the major basins in the region that is frequently prone to severe flash flood damage, from a single extreme rainfall event. We employed a fully physical-based, distributed hydrological model run with HEC-HMS software version 4.11 and Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals of Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG V.06) data, as well as other geo-environmental variables, to simulate the water flow within the Wadi Basin, and predict flash flood hazard. Discharge from the wadi and its sub-basins was predicted using 1 mm rainfall over an 8-h occurrence time. Significant peak discharge (3.6 m3/s) was found in eastern and southern upstream sub-basins and crossing points, rather than those downstream, due to their high-density drainage network (0.12) and CNs (88.4). Generally, four flood hazard levels were identified in the study basin: 'low risk', 'moderate risk', 'high risk', and 'very high risk'. It was found that 43.8% of the total area of the Wadi Hail Basin is highly prone to flooding. Furthermore, medium- and low-hazard areas make up 4.5-11.2% of the total area, respectively. We found that the peak discharge value of sub-basin 11 (1.8 m3/s) covers 13.2% of the total Wadi Hail area; so, it poses more flood risk than other Wadi Hail sub-basins. The obtained results demonstrated the usefulness of the methods used to develop useful hydrological information in a region lacking ungagged data. This study will play a useful role in identifying the impact of extreme rainfall events on locations that may be susceptible to flash flooding, which will help authorities to develop flood management strategies, particularly in response to extreme events. The study results have potential and valuable policy implications for planners and decision-makers regarding infrastructural development and ensuring environmental stability. The study recommends further research to understand how flash flood hazards correlate with changes at different land use/cover (LULC) classes. This could refine flash flood hazards results and maximize its effectiveness.

Fractures with fluid flow can lead to the damage of rock carving relics. During the detection of fractures, millimeter-scale fractures are usually difficult to determine due to their small apertures. Considering the rapid variation of water content in the fracture seepage zone can lead to anisotropy, this article proposes a new methodology to detect these millimeter-scale fractures with fluid flow using a time-lapse full-polarimetric ground penetrating radar (FP-GPR) scheme and an anisotropy analysis method. The time-lapse FP-GPR detection can monitor the water flow in the fracture and the infiltration in the rock, and the Freeman decomposition, H-Alpha decomposition, and a polarimetric phase (PP) feature are adopted to quantify and analyze the anisotropic effects over time. In the numerical test, we adopt hydrological modeling to build realistic dielectric models for time-lapse FP-GPR simulations. The results indicate that the variations of water contents and several polarimetric features, i.e., the surface-like scattering power, the double-bounce scattering power, and the averaged scattering angle, are consistent and are essentially related to the anisotropy of the seepage zone. Finally, we introduce the field tests performed at the experimental station of the Dazu Rock Carvings in Chongqing, China, which contain two cases I and II. Case I is an experiment on a surface fracture of a cliff, whereas case II is a detection test of a buried fracture. The results verify the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Study RegionThe Naryn River Basin, KyrgyzstanStudy FocusWe investigate the impacts of climate change in the basin based on two families of General Circulation Models (GCMs) using the hydrological model SWAT. The forcing datasets are the widely used ISIMIP2 (I2) and the newly derived ISIMIP3 (I3) data which refer to the 5th and 6th stage of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Due to notable differences in the forcing we evaluate their impacts on various hydrological components of the basin, such as discharge, evapotranspiration (ETA) and soil moisture (SM). Besides, a partial correlation (PC) analysis is used to assess the meteorological controls of the basin with special emphasize on the SM-ETA coupling. New Hydrological Insights for the RegionAgreement in the basin's projections is found, such as discharge shifts towards an earlier peak flow of one month, significant SM reductions and ETA increases. I3 temperature projections exceed their previous estimates and show an increase in precipitation, which differs from I2. However, the mitigating effects do not lead to an improvement in the region's susceptibility to soil moisture deficits. The PC study reveals enhanced water-limited conditions expressed as positive SM-ETA feedback under I2 and I3, albeit slightly weaker under I3.

On the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) in northern Alaska (USA), permafrost and abundant surface-water storage define watershed hydrological processes. In the last decades, the ACP landscape experienced extreme climate events and increased lake water withdrawal (LWW) for infrastructure construction, primarily ice roads and industrial operations. However, their potential (combined) effects on streamflow are relatively underexplored. Here, we applied the process-based, spatially distributed hydrological and thermal Water Balance Simulation Model (10 m spatial resolution) to the 30 km(2) Crea Creek watershed located on the ACP. The impacts of documented seasonal climate extremes and LWW were evaluated on seasonal runoff (May-August), including minimum 7-day mean flow (MQ7), the recovery time of MQ7 to pre-perturbation conditions, and the duration of streamflow conditions that prevents fish passage. Low-rainfall scenarios (21% of normal, one to three summers in a row) caused a larger reduction in MQ7 (-56% to -69%) than LWW alone (-44% to -58%). Decadal-long consecutive LWW under average climate conditions resulted in a new equilibrium in low flow and seasonal runoff after 3 years that included a disconnected stream network, a reduced watershed contributing area (54% of total watershed area), and limited fish passage of 20 days (vs. 6 days under control conditions) throughout summer. Our results highlight that, even under current average climatic conditions, LWW is not offset by same-year snowmelt as currently assumed in land management regulations. Effective land management would therefore benefit from considering the combined impact of climate change and industrial LWWs.

We analyse an ensemble of statistically downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs) to investigate future water availability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) of Pakistan for the time horizons when the global and/or regional warming levels cross Paris Agreement (PA) targets. The GCMs data is obtained from the 5th Phase of Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Based on the five best performing GCMs, we note that global 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C warming thresholds are projected in 2026 and 2047 under RCP4.5 and 2022 and 3036 under RCP8.5 respectively while these thresholds are reached much earlier over Pakistan i.e. 2016 and 2030 under RCP4.5 and 2012 and 2025 under RCP8.5 respectively. Interestingly, the GCMs with the earliest emergence at the global scale are not necessarily the ones with the earliest emergence over Pakistan, highlighting spatial non-linearity in GCMs response. The emergence of 2.0 degrees C warming at global scale across 5 GCMs ranges from 2031 (CCSM4) to 2049 (NorESM) under RCP8.5. Precipitation generally exhibits a progressive increasing trend with stronger changes at higher warming or radiative forcing levels. Hydrological simulations representing the historical, 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global and region warming time horizons indicate a robust but seasonally varying increase in the inflows. The highest inflows in the baseline and future are witnessed in July. However, the highest future increase in inflows is projected in October under RCP4.5 (37.99% and 65.11% at 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C) and in April under RCP8.5 (37% and 62.05% at 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C). These hydrological changes are driven by increases in the snow and glacial melt contribution, which are more pronounced at 2.0 degrees C warming level. These findings should help for effective water management in Pakistan over the coming decades. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The ACRU agro-hydrological modeling system provided the framework, containing code to simulate all major hydrological processes, including actual evapotranspiration estimates, to simulate the impacts of climate change in the Cline River watershed, Alberta. Canada, under historical (1961-1990) and a range of future climate conditions (2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099). Whilst uncertainties in the estimation of many hydrological variables were inevitable, verification analyses carried out for the historical baseline period resulted in good to very good simulations of a range of hydrological processes, including daily air temperature, snow water equivalent and streamflow. Five climate change scenarios were selected to cover the range of possible future climate conditions. In order to generate future climate time series, the 30-year baseline time series was perturbed according to predicted changes in air temperature and precipitation. Projected increases in air temperature and precipitation resulted in mean annual increases in potential and actual evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge, soil moisture, and streamflow in the Cline River watershed. Increases in both high and low flow magnitudes and frequencies, and large increases to winter and spring streamflow are predicted for all climate scenarios. Spring runoff and peak streamflow were simulated to occur up to 4 weeks earlier than in the 1961-1990 baseline period. Predicted changes were simulated to progressively increase into the future. A clear shift in the future hydrological regime is predicted, with significantly higher streamflow between October and June, and lower streamflow in July-September. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Subarctic wetlands that exist as bogs, fens, swamps, marshes and shallow water, comprise 3% of the Canadian landscape. They have been recognized as important ecotones between the arctic tundra and boreal forest. Recently, there has been growing research interest in the hydrological characteristics of arctic and subarctic wetland systems in the need for more efficiently conserving wetlands and assessing climate change related impacts. This research targets the Deer River watershed near Churchill, Manitoba, which represents a typical subarctic wetland system in the Hudson Bay Lowlands. An extensive field investigation was first conducted during the summer from 2006 to 2008 to facilitate in-depth understanding of the wetland hydrology. The results provided evidence to indicate a strong relationship between air temperature and evapotranspiration. Permafrost table, soil moisture and streamflow were monitored and analyzed to advance the acknowledgement of the climatic, geographical and hydrological characteristics of subarctic wetlands. To quantify the water cycle and further validate the findings from field investigation, a Canadian distributed hydrological model, WATFLOOD, was employed to simulate the hydrologic processes in the targeted watershed. The results demonstrated that snowmelt in the spring season (April-June) was the major source of water supplement of subarctic wetlands. Most light and moderate rainfall events in summer (July-September) generated relatively small amounts of runoff which can be related to canopy interception, depression storage, porous soil layers, impermeable permafrost and intensive evapotranspiration. A lag of 2-8 days between the peaks of rainfall and stream runoff was observed in both summer and fall. This study is expected to benefit wetland conservation and the assessment of climate change related impacts in the Canadian northern regions.