In response to increasing Arctic temperatures, ice-rich permafrost landscapes are undergoing rapid changes. In permafrost lowlands, polygonal ice wedges are especially prone to degradation. Melting of ice wedges results in deepening troughs and the transition from low-centered to high-centered ice-wedge polygons. This process has important implications for surface hydrology, as the connectivity of such troughs determines the rate of drainage for these lowland landscapes. In this study, we present a comprehensive, modular, and highly automated workflow to extract, to represent, and to analyze remotely sensed ice-wedge polygonal trough networks as a graph (i.e., network structure). With computer vision methods, we efficiently extract the trough locations as well as their geomorphometric information on trough depth and width from high-resolution digital elevation models and link these data within the graph. Further, we present and discuss the benefits of graph analysis algorithms for characterizing the erosional development of such thaw-affected landscapes. Based on our graph analysis, we show how thaw subsidence has progressed between 2009 and 2019 following burning at the Anaktuvuk River fire scar in northern Alaska, USA. We observed a considerable increase in the number of discernible troughs within the study area, while simultaneously the number of disconnected networks decreased from 54 small networks in 2009 to only six considerably larger disconnected networks in 2019. On average, the width of the troughs has increased by 13.86%, while the average depth has slightly decreased by 10.31%. Overall, our new automated approach allows for monitoring ice-wedge dynamics in unprecedented spatial detail, while simultaneously reducing the data to quantifiable geometric measures and spatial relationships.

Simulations with a one-dimensional heat transfer model (TONE) were performed to reproduce the near surface ground temperature regime in the four main types of soil profiles found in Narsajuaq River Valley (Nunavik, Canada) for the period 1990-2100. The permafrost thermal regime was simulated using climate data from a reanalysis (1948-2002), climate stations (1989-1991, 2002-2019) and simulations based on climate warming scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (2019-2100). The model was calibrated based on extensive field measurements made between 1989 and 2019. The results were used to estimate when soil thermal contraction cracking will eventually stop and to forecast the melting of ice wedges due to active-layer thickening. For the period 1990-2019, all soil profiles experienced cracking every year until 2006, when cracking became intermittent during a warm period before completely stopping in 2009-2010, after which cracking resumed during colder years. Ice-wedge tops melted from 1992 to 2010 as the active layer thickened, indicating that top-down ice-wedge degradation can occur simultaneously with cracking and growth in width. Our predictions show that ice wedges in the valley will completely stop cracking between 2024 and 2096, first in sandy soils and later in soils with thicker organic horizons. The timing will also depend on greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. All ice wedges in the study area will probably experience some degradation of their main body before the end of the century, causing their roots to become relict ice by the end of the 21st century.

Near-surface wedges of massive ice commonly outline polygons in tundra lowlands, but such polygons have been difficult to identify on hillslopes because soil movement flattens the ridges and infills the troughs that form beside and above the ice wedges. Over the past three decades, the active layer has thickened near the western Arctic coast of Canada and consequent thawing of ice wedges has been detected by remote sensing for flat terrain but not, generally, on hillslopes. Annual field surveys (1996-2018) at the Illisarvik field site of thaw depth and ground surface elevation show the mean subsidence rate above hillslope ice wedges has been up to 32 mm a(-1) since thaw depth reached the ice-wedge tops in 2007. Annual mean ground temperatures at the site are about -3.0 degrees C beneath late-winter snow depths characteristic of the ice-wedge troughs but about -5.3 degrees C under conditions of the intervening polygons. The rate of thaw subsidence is high for natural, subaerial disturbances because meltwater from the ice wedges runs off downslope. The rate is constant, because the thickness of seasonally thawed ground above the ice wedges and the ice content of the ground remain the same while the troughs develop. Observations of changes in surface elevation in northern Banks Island between the late 1970s and 2019 show troughs on hillslopes where none was previously visible. Development of these troughs creates regional thermokarst landscapes, distinct from the widely recognized results of thawing relict glacier ice, that are now widespread over Canada's western Arctic coastlands. Recognition of ice-wedge occurrence and accelerated thaw subsidence on hillslopes is important in the design of infrastructure proposed for construction in rolling permafrost terrain.

In the past three decades, an abrupt, pan-Arctic acceleration of ice wedge melting has transformed tundra landscapes, spurring the formation of hummock-like features known as high-centered polygons (HCPs). This rapid geomorphic transition profoundly alters regional hydrology and influences surface emissions of CO2 and CH4. In Arctic Alaska, most recent instances of ice wedge degradation have arrested within 15-20 years of inception, stabilizing HCP microtopography. However, feedbacks between ground surface deformation and permafrost stability are incompletely understood, limiting our capacity to predict trajectories of landscape evolution in a still warmer future. Here, we use field data from a site near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, to develop a modeling-based framework for assessing the strength of positive (i.e., exacerbating) feedbacks on ice wedge degradation, focusing on the importance of heterogeneity in surface drainage and microtopographic conditions. Our simulations suggest that, when troughs are narrow, positive feedbacks on ice wedge melting (associated with thermokarst pool formation) are relatively weak. Positive feedbacks are markedly stronger beneath wide troughs, such as those that form above older, larger ice wedges. Seasonal thaw abruptly accelerates once a talik begins to form beneath wide and deep thermokarst pools. Once a talik initiates, winter severity and snowpack thickness increase in importance as predictors of thaw intensity in summer. Our results indicate that meter-scale heterogeneity in polygonal microtopography potentially exerts strong, nonlinear controls on thermokarst trajectories. These findings are useful for predicting future thermokarst dynamics and for interpreting the results from coarser-resolution land surface models operating at greater spatial and temporal scales.

To assess the direct impact of climate change on ice-wedge (IW) degradation, 16 sites in the Narsajuaq river valley (Nunavik, Canada) that were extensively studied between 1989 and 1991 were revisited in 2016, 2017 and 2018. In total, 109 pits were dug to record soil characteristics and IW shapes and depths. Changes in surface conditions were also noted using side-by-side comparisons of recent (2017) and older (1989-1991) land and aerial photographs. During the past 25 years, the active layer reached depths that were 1.2-3.4 times deeper than in 1991, which led to the widespread degradation of IWs in the valley. Whereas 94% of the IWs unearthed in 1991 showed multiple recent growth structures, only 13% of the 55 IWs unearthed in 2017 still had some upgrowth stages left. IW tops are now consistently deeper than the main stages of the IWs measured in 1991. In August 2017, however, about half of the IWs had ice veins connecting them to the base of the active layer, an indication that the recent cooling spell (2010 to present) in the region was enough to reactivate frost cracking and IW growth. This paper highlights how sensitive the Arctic soil system can be to short-term climate variations.

1. The high Arctic is the world's fasting warming biome, allowing access to sections of previously inaccessible land for resource extraction. Starting in 2011, exploration of one of the Earth's largest undeveloped coal seams was initiated in a relatively pristine, polar desert environment in the Canadian high Arctic. Due to the relative lack of historic anthropogenic disturbance, significant gaps in knowledge exist on how the landscape will be impacted by development. 2. At an abandoned airstrip located near the area of current exploration, we used a disturbance case-control approach to evaluate the long-term ecological consequences of high Arctic infrastructure disturbance to vegetation and sensitive, ice-rich permafrost. We quantified: (i) long-term effects on vegetation diversity, soil nutrients and abiotic ground conditions and (ii) the alteration of the ground surface topography and legacy of subsurface thermal changes. 3. We found that in over 60 years since abandonment, the disturbed landscape has not recovered to initial conditions but instead reflects a disturbance-initiated succession towards a different stable-state community. 4. Microtopography greatly influenced recovery patterns in the landscape. The terrain overlaying buried ice (ice-wedge polygon troughs) was the most sensitive to disturbance and had a different species composition, decreased plot-level species richness, significant increases in vegetation cover and a drastically reduced seasonal fluctuation in subsurface temperatures. In contrast, disturbed polygon tops showed resiliency in vegetation recovery, but still had remarkable increases in depth of seasonal soil thaw (active layer). 5. Synthesis and applications. Our results indicate that disturbance effects differ depending on microtopographic features, leading to an increased patchiness of the landscape as found elsewhere in the Arctic. Managers who wish to lessen their impact on high Arctic environments should avoid areas of sensitive, ice-rich permafrost, constrain the geographic scale of near-surface ground disturbance, limit vegetation removal where possible and reseed disturbed areas with native species.

1. The polar desert biome of the Canadian high Arctic Archipelago is currently experiencing some of the greatest mean annual air temperature increases on the planet, threatening the stability of ecosystems residing above temperature-sensitive permafrost. 2. Ice wedges are the most widespread form of ground ice, occurring in up to 25% of the world's terrestrial near-surface, and their melting (thermokarst) may catalyse a suite of biotic and ecological changes, facilitating major ecosystem shifts. 3. These unknown ecosystem shifts raise serious questions as to how permafrost stability, vegetation diversity and edaphic conditions will change with a warming high Arctic. Ecosystem and thermokarst processes tend to be examined independently, limiting our understanding of a coupled system whereby the effect of climate change on one will affect the outcome of the other. 4. Using in-depth, comprehensive field observations and a space-for-time approach, we investigate the highly structured landscape that has emerged due to the thermokarst-induced partitioning of microhabitats. We examine differences in vegetation diversity, community composition and soil conditions on the Fosheim Peninsula, Ellesmere Island, Nunavut. We hypothesize that (i) greater ice wedge subsidence results in increased vegetation cover due to elevated soil moisture, thereby decreasing the seasonal depth of thaw and restricting groundwater outflow; (ii) thermokarst processes result in altered vegetation richness, turnover and dispersion, with greater microhabitat diversity at the landscape scale; and (iii) shifts in hydrology and plant community structure alter soil chemistry. 5. We found that the disturbance caused by melting ice wedges catalysed a suite of environmental and biotic effects: topographical changes, a new hydrological balance, significant species richness and turnover changes, and distinct soil chemistries. Thermokarst areas favour a subset of species unique from the polar desert and are characterized by greater species turnover (beta-diversity) across the landscape. 6. Synthesis. Our findings suggest that projected increases of thermokarst in the polar desert will lead to the increased partitioning of microhabitats, creating a more heterogeneous high arctic landscape through diverging vegetation communities and edaphic conditions, resulting in a wetland-like biome in the high Arctic that could replace much of the ice-rich polar desert.

Landscape attributes that vary with microtopography, such as active layer thickness (ALT), are labor intensive and difficult to document effectively through in situ methods at kilometer spatial extents, thus rendering remotely sensed methods desirable. Spatially explicit estimates of ALT can provide critically needed data for parameterization, initialization, and evaluation of Arctic terrestrial models. In this work, we demonstrate a new approach using high-resolution remotely sensed data for estimating centimeter-scale ALT in a 5 km(2) area of ice-wedge polygon terrain in Barrow, Alaska. We use a simple regression-based, machine learning data-fusion algorithm that uses topographic and spectral metrics derived from multisensor data (LiDAR and WorldView-2) to estimate ALT (2 m spatial resolution) across the study area. Comparison of the ALT estimates with ground-based measurements, indicates the accuracy (r(2)=0.76, RMSE 4.4 cm) of the approach. While it is generally accepted that broad climatic variability associated with increasing air temperature will govern the regional averages of ALT, consistent with prior studies, our findings using high-resolution LiDAR and WorldView-2 data, show that smaller-scale variability in ALT is controlled by local eco-hydro-geomorphic factors. This work demonstrates a path forward for mapping ALT at high spatial resolution and across sufficiently large regions for improved understanding and predictions of coupled dynamics among permafrost, hydrology, and land-surface processes from readily available remote sensing data. Key Points First effort to map the ALT using fine resolution remotely sensed data A blended methodology incorporating RS data and statistical manipulation Smaller-scale ALT is controlled by eco-hydro-geo variables

The excess ice content of near-surface permafrost near Barrow, Alaska, was estimated using cores collected from 57 drained thermokarst-lake basins and additional cores from a nearby landform unaffected by thaw-lake processes. The excess ice content, estimated using soil cryostructures, increased with surface age: from 20 per cent in young basins?

Recent Canadian research on permafrost is reviewed, concentrating on permafrost-climate relations, the processes of thermokarst, ice-wedge development, frost heave and soil convection, and ground ice studies. This field of geomorphology is often of direct interest to engineers and managers of northern resource development. While industrial activity in the Arctic is currently slow, concern for the effects of permafrost stability of global climate warming has stimulated research. Much of the work on the potential consequences to permafrost of climate change is by modelling: there are yet few relevant field data, although this is crucial for model evaluation. Studies of permafrost processes usually rely on geotechnical or geophysical theory too: the review concentrates on the use of field evidence in support of analytical models of landform development. Current research on ground ice is of a more geological nature: we examine approaches to the delineation and origin of massive ice.