Climate-change driven degradation of permafrost and changes in precipitation have resulted in significant changes to hydrological processes in permafrost areas. Previous studies on hillslope-stream connectivity and associated runoff-recharge to rivers have mainly focused on the threshold conditions and processes. In contrast, there has been limited study on the capacity of the permafrost active layer to recharge rivers and the relationships between river channel precipitation and river runoff, needed to predict flood events. This study aimed to characterize river runoff generation processes in the Yakou Catchment, northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Continuous monitoring of meteorological variables (precipitation and air temperature) and hillslope hydrological elements (thaw depths, supra-permafrost groundwater, and the thickness of the saturated zone) was conducted between June-August 2021-2022. The results showed using the thickness of the saturated zone (TSZ) to determine wet and dry conditions yielded significantly higher low flow (average of 0.153 m3 s- 1) and lower low flow (average of 0.049 m3 s- 1) with average TSZ depths of 0.40 m and 0.12 m under wet and dry conditions, respectively. However, no significant difference was noted in quick flow. Precipitation during typical rainfall events deter-mined the generation of quick flow, with low flow constituting the main component of river runoff. The application of a partial least squares path model showed that TSZ on the permafrost determined the generation of river low flow which mainly originated from hillslope lateral subsurface flow. Conversely, river channel precipitation determined the generation of quick flow, which can contribute up to 80 % of the peak runoff during extreme rainfall events. Specifically, this study enhances the understanding of the connectivity between hill -slopes and rivers and the storage-discharge relationship in permafrost catchments. This study provides a new theoretical reference for simulations of hydrological processes in the permafrost region.

Arctic hydrology is experiencing rapid changes including earlier snow melt, permafrost degradation, increasing active layer depth, and reduced river ice, all of which are expected to lead to changes in stream flow regimes. Recently, long-term (>60 years) climate reanalysis and river discharge observation data have become available. We utilized these data to assess long-term changes in discharge and their hydroclimatic drivers. River discharge during the cold season (October-April) increased by 10% per decade. The most widespread discharge increase occurred in April (15% per decade), the month of ice break-up for the majority of basins. In October, when river ice formation generally begins, average monthly discharge increased by 7% per decade. Long-term air temperature increases in October and April increased the number of days above freezing (+1.1 d per decade) resulting in increased snow ablation (20% per decade) and decreased snow water equivalent (-12% per decade). Compared to the historical period (1960-1989), mean April and October air temperature in the recent period (1990-2019) have greater correlation with monthly discharge from 0.33 to 0.68 and 0.0-0.48, respectively. This indicates that the recent increases in air temperature are directly related to these discharge changes. Ubiquitous increases in cold and shoulder-season discharge demonstrate the scale at which hydrologic and biogeochemical fluxes are being altered in the Arctic.

Climate change is commonly evaluated as the difference. between simulated climates under future and current forcings, based on the assumption that systematic errors in the current-climate simulation do not affect the climate-change signal. In this paper, we investigate the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) projected climate changes in the climatological means and extremes of selected basin-scale surface fields and its sensitivity to model errors for Fraser, Mackenzie, Yukon, Nelson, Churchill and Mississippi basins, covering the major climate regions in North America, using current (1961-1990) and future climate simulations (2041-2070; A2 and IS92a scenarios) performed with two versions of CRCM. Assessment of errors in both model versions suggests the presence of nonnegligible, biases in the surface fields, due primarily to the internal dynamics and physics of the regional model and to the errors in the driving data at the boundaries. In general, results demonstrate that, in spite of the errors in the two model versions, the simulated climate-change signals associated with the long-term monthly climatology of various surface water balance components (such as precipitation, evaporation, snow water equivalent (SWE), runoff and soil moisture) are consistent in sign, but differ in magnitude. The same is found for projected changes to the low-flow characteristics (frequency, timing and return levels) studied here. High-flow characteristics, particularly the seasonal distribution and return levels, appear to be more sensitive to the model version. CRCM climate-change projections indicate an increase in the average annual precipitation for all basins except Mississippi, while annual runoff increases in Fraser, Mackenzie and Yukon basins. A decrease in runoff is projected for Mississippi. A significant decrease in snow cover is projected for all basins, with maximum decrease in Fraser. Significant changes are also noted in the frequency, timing and return levels for low flows. Copyright (C) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.