Global warming increases the frequency and intensity of climate extremes, but the changes in climate extremes over the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) during different periods are unknown. Changes in surface temperature extreme indices (TN10p, TX10p, TN90p, TX90p, CSDI, WSDI, TNn, TNx, TXn, TXx and DTR) are assessed during 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, based on the multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The extreme indices, excluding TXn and DTR, illustrate the opposite trend in the two periods in SSP1-2.6 over the AIS. Generally, the changes in extreme indices reflect the continued warming over AIS in the future, and the warming is projected to intensify in SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. The variations in the extreme indices exhibit regional differences. The Antarctic Peninsula displays rapid changes in TNn, TXn and DTR. In SSP5-8.5, the magnitudes of all climate index tendencies are greater during 2071-2100 than 2021-2050. The variations in TX10p, TX90p, TN10p, TN90p, WSDI and CSDI are faster in the Antarctic inland than in the other regions over the AIS. However, the decrease in the DTR is concentrated along the AIS coast and extends to the interior region, whereas the increasing trend occurs in the Antarctic inland. In West AIS, TX90p and TN90p rapidly increase during 2021-2050, whereas the rapid changing signals disappear in this region in 2071-2100. The dramatic changes in TNn, TXn and DTR occur at the Ross Ice Shelf during 2071-2100, indicating an increased risk of collapse. For TNx and TXx, the degree of warming in the later part of the 21st century is divided by the transantarctic mountains, and greater changes appear on the eastern side. Generally, Antarctic amplification of TNn, TXn and DTR is observed except under SSP1-2.6. In addition, TNx and TXx amplifications occur in SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5.

A version of the Community Earth System Model modified at the North Carolina State University (CESM-NCSU) is used to simulate the current and future atmosphere following the representative concentration partway scenarios for stabilization of radiative forcing at 4.5 W m(-2) (RCP4.5) and radiative forcing of 8.5 W m(-2) (RCP8.5). Part I describes the results from a comprehensive evaluation of current decadal simulations. Radiation and most meteorological variables are well simulated in CESM-NCSU. Cloud parameters are not as well simulated due in part to the tuning of model radiation and general biases in cloud variables common to all global chemistry-climate models. The concentrations of most inorganic aerosol species (i.e., SO42-, NH4+, and NO3-) are well simulated with normalized mean biases (NMBs) typically less than 20%. However, some notable exceptions are European NH4+, which is overpredicted by 33.0-42.2% due to high NH3 emissions and irreversible coarse mode condensation, and Cl-, that is negatively impacted by errors in emissions driven by wind speed and overpredicted HNO3. Carbonaceous aerosols are largely underpredicted following the RCP scenarios due to low emissions of black carbon, organic carbon, and anthropogenic volatile compounds in the RCP inventory and efficient wet removal. This results in underpredictions of PM2.5 and PM10 by 6.4-55.7%. The column mass abundances are reasonably well simulated. Larger biases occur in surface mixing ratios of trace gases in CESM-NCSU, likely due to numerical diffusion from the coarse grid spacing of the CESM-NCSU simulations or errors in the magnitudes and vertical structure of emissions. This is especially true for SO2 and NO2. The mixing ratio of O-3 is overpredicted by 38.9-76.0% due to the limitations in the O-3 deposition scheme used in CESM and insufficient titration resulted from large underpredictions in NO2. Despite these limitations, CESM-NCSU reproduces reasonably well the current atmosphere in terms of radiation, clouds, meteorology, trace gases, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions, making it suitable for future climate simulations. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.