Ecosystems at the southern edge of the permafrost distribution are highly sensitive to global warming. Changes in soil freeze-thaw cycles can influence vegetation growth in permafrost regions. Extant studies mainly focused on analyzing the differences of vegetation dynamics in different permafrost regions. However, the intrinsic drivers of permafrost degradation on vegetation growth remain elusive yet. Based on the top temperature of permafrost (TTOP) model, we simulated the spatial distribution of permafrost in Northeast China (NEC) from 2001 to 2020. Using the data of the vegetation Net Primary Productivity (NPP), vegetation phenology, climate and permafrost phenology, and analytical methods including partial correlation, multiple linear regression, and path analysis, we explored the response of vegetation growth and phenology to soil freeze-thaw changes and climate change under different degrees of permafrost degradation. Overall, the start date of the growing season (SOS) was very sensitive to the start date of soil thaw (SOT) changes, and multiple regression analyses showed that SOT was the main factor influencing SOS in 41.8% of the NEC region. Climatic factors remain the main factors affecting vegetation NPP in NEC, and the results of partial correlation analysis showed that only 9.7% of the regional duration of soil thaw (DOT) had a strong correlation with vegetation NPP. Therefore, we determined the mechanism responsible for the soil freeze-thaw changes and vegetation growth relationship using the path analysis. The results indicated that there is a potential inhibitory effect of persistent permafrost degradation on vegetation growth. Our findings would contribute to the improvement of process-based models of forest dynamics in the boreal region, which would help to plan sustainable development and conservation strategies in permafrost areas.

Climate warming is expected to have a large impact on plant species composition and productivity in northern latitude ecosystems. Warming can affect vegetation communities directly through temperature effects on plant growth and indirectly through alteration of soil nutrient availability. In addition, warming can cause permafrost to thaw and thermokarst (ground subsidence) to develop, which can alter the structure of the ecosystem by altering hydrological patterns within a site. These multiple direct and indirect effects of permafrost thawing are difficult to simulate in experimental approaches that often manipulate only one or two factors. Here, we used a natural gradient approach with three sites to represent stages in the process of permafrost thawing and thermokarst. We found that vascular plant biomass shifted from graminoid-dominated tundra in the least disturbed site to shrub-dominated tundra at the oldest, most subsided site, whereas the intermediate site was co-dominated by both plant functional groups. Vascular plant productivity patterns followed the changes in biomass, whereas nonvascular moss productivity was especially important in the oldest, most subsided site. The coefficient of variation for soil moisture was higher in the oldest, most subsided site suggesting that in addition to more wet microsites, there were other microsites that were drier. Across all sites, graminoids preferred the cold, dry microsites whereas the moss and shrubs were associated with the warm, moist microsites. Total nitrogen contained in green plant biomass differed across sites, suggesting that there were increases in soil nitrogen availability where permafrost had thawed.