The climatic changes on earth may have serious implications for the carbon (C) cycle in the terrestrial Arctic throughout the 21st century. Arctic vegetation takes up carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere producing biomass. In a cold and often moist soil environment, dead organic matter is preferentially preserved as soil organic matter (SOM) due to the inhibition of decomposition processes. However, viable soil microbes exhale huge amounts of CO2 and methane (CH4) annually. Hence, Arctic ecosystems exhibit annual fluxes of both carbon-based (CO2 and CH4) greenhouse gases (GHGs) that are in an order of magnitude of millions of tons. Rising Arctic temperatures lead to the degradation of much of today's permafrost in the long run. As a result, large quantities of frozen SOM may become available for decomposers, and GHGs that are entrapped in permafrost may be released. At the same time, warming tends to stimulate the growth, development, and reproduction of many Arctic plants, at least transiently. The present northward migration of boreal shrubs and trees into southern tundra areas may be amplified by that, increasing the ecosystems' gross primary production and, thus, their C sequestration. On the other hand, rising temperatures boost SOM decomposition and microbial respiration rates. In general, soil temperature and soil moisture are key environmental variables to control the, intensity of aerobic and anaerobic respiration by microbes, and autotrophic respiration by plants. On the basis of published data on Arctic CO2 and CH4 fluxes, the calculations on the terrestrial C-based Arctic GHG balance made in this review reveal a current annual GHG exchange that ranges between a weak storage of <= 225 Tg CO2 equivalent (eq.) y(-1) and a huge release of 1990 Tg CO2 eq. y(-1). Hence, the Arctic GHG balance does apparently already contribute positively to the climatic changes at present. Regarding the future, the relative development of the uptake and release of CO2 and CH4 by northern ecosystems is fundamental to the overall GHG status of the Arctic under scenarios of continued climate change.

The ongoing and projected warming in the northern high latitudes (NHL; poleward of 60 degrees N) may lead to dramatic changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle. On the one hand, warming and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration stimulate vegetation productivity, taking up CO2. On the other hand, warming accelerates the decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM), releasing carbon into the atmosphere. Here, the NHL terrestrial carbon storage is investigated based on 10 models from the Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project. Our analysis suggests that the NHL will be a carbon sink of 0.3 +/- 0.3 Pg C yr-1 by 2100. The cumulative land organic carbon storage is modeled to increase by 38 +/- 20 Pg C over 1901 levels, of which 17 +/- 8 Pg C comes from vegetation (43%) and 21 +/- 16 Pg C from the soil (8%). Both CO2 fertilization and warming enhance vegetation growth in the NHL. Although the intense warming there enhances SOM decomposition, soil organic carbon (SOC) storage continues to increase in the 21st century. This is because higher vegetation productivity leads to more turnover (litterfall) into the soil, a process that has received relatively little attention. However, the projected growth rate of SOC begins to level off after 2060 when SOM decomposition accelerates at high temperature and then catches up with the increasing input from vegetation turnover. Such competing mechanisms may lead to a switch of the NHL SOC pool from a sink to a source after 2100 under more intense warming, but large uncertainty exists due to our incomplete understanding of processes such as the strength of the CO2 fertilization effect, permafrost, and the role of soil moisture. Unlike the CO2 fertilization effect that enhances vegetation productivity across the world, global warming increases the productivity at high latitudes but tends to reduce it in the tropics and mid-latitudes. These effects are further enhanced as a result of positive carbon cycle-climate feedbacks due to additional CO2 and warming.