Most lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have expanded in recent years. Zonag lake, a critical habitat for Tibetan antelopes in the continuous permafrost zone, burst and overflowed after several years of expansion, resulting in a reduction of approximately 100 km(2) in the lake area. Observations have revealed new permafrost is forming on the exposed bottom, accompanied by various periglacial landscapes. The permafrost aggradation on the exposed bottom is rapid, and the permafrost base reached 4.9 m, 5.4 m, and 5.7 m in the first three years, respectively. In this study, the future changes and influencing factors of recently formed permafrost are simulated using a one-dimensional finite element model of heat flow. The simulated results indicate that the permafrost on the exposed bottom is likely to continue to develop, appearing first quick back slow trend. Besides the surface temperature, the annual amplitude is also an important factor in affecting the aggradation of permafrost. The unidirectional permafrost aggradation in the study area is different from the bidirectional permafrost aggradation on the closed taliks around the Arctic. Additionally, snow cover and vegetation are two important factors influencing the future development of permafrost on the exposed lake bottom.

The distribution of shallow frozen ground is paramount to research in cold regions, and is subject to temporal and spatial changes influenced by climate, landscape disturbance and ecosystem succession. Remote sensing from airborne and satellite platforms is increasing our understanding of landscape-scale permafrost distribution, but typically lacks the resolution to characterise finer-scale processes and phenomena, which are better captured by integrated surface geophysical methods. Here, we demonstrate the use of electrical resistivity imaging (ERI), electromagnetic induction (EMI), ground penetrating radar (GPR) and infrared imaging over multiple summer field seasons around the highly dynamic Twelvemile Lake, Yukon Flats, central Alaska, USA. Twelvemile Lake has generally receded in the past 30yr, allowing permafrost aggradation in the receded margins, resulting in a mosaic of transient frozen ground adjacent to thick, older permafrost outside the original lakebed. ERI and EMI best evaluated the thickness of shallow, thin permafrost aggradation, which was not clear from frost probing or GPR surveys. GPR most precisely estimated the depth of the active layer, which forward electrical resistivity modelling indicated to be a difficult target for electrical methods, but could be more tractable in time-lapse mode. Infrared imaging of freshly dug soil pit walls captured active-layer thermal gradients at unprecedented resolution, which may be useful in calibrating emerging numerical models. GPR and EMI were able to cover landscape scales (several kilometres) efficiently, and new analysis software showcased here yields calibrated EMI data that reveal the complicated distribution of shallow permafrost in a transitional landscape. Copyright (c) 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.