Modelling the susceptibility of permafrost slopes to disturbance can identify areas at risk to future disturbance and result in safer infrastructure and resource development in the Arctic. In this study, we use terrain attributes derived from a digital elevation model, an inventory of permafrost slope disturbances known as active-layer detachments (ALDs) and generalised additive modelling to produce a map of permafrost slope disturbance susceptibility for an area on northern Melville Island, in the Canadian High Arctic. By examining terrain variables and their relative importance, we identified factors important for initiating slope disturbance. The model was calibrated and validated using 70 and 30 per cent of a data-set of 760 mapped ALDs, including disturbed and randomised undisturbed samples. The generalised additive model calibrated and validated very well, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89 and 0.81, respectively, demonstrating its effectiveness at predicting disturbed and undisturbed samples. ALDs were most likely to occur below the marine limit on slope angles between 3 and 10 degrees and in areas with low values of potential incoming solar radiation (north-facing slopes). Copyright (c) 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Permafrost landscapes experience different disturbances and store large amounts of organic matter, which may become a source of greenhouse gases upon permafrost degradation. We analysed the influence of terrain and geomorphic disturbances (e.g. soil creep, active-layer detachment, gullying, thaw slumping, accumulation of fluvial deposits) on soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (TN) storage using 11 permafrost cores from Herschel Island, western Canadian Arctic. Our results indicate a strong correlation between SOC storage and the topographic wetness index. Undisturbed sites stored the majority of SOC and TN in the upper 70cm of soil. Sites characterised by mass wasting showed significant SOC depletion and soil compaction, whereas sites characterised by the accumulation of peat and fluvial deposits store SOC and TN along the whole core. We upscaled SOC and TN to estimate total stocks using the ecological units determined from vegetation composition, slope angle and the geomorphic disturbance regime. The ecological units were delineated with a supervised classification based on RapidEye multispectral satellite imagery and slope angle. Mean SOC and TN storage for the uppermost 1m of soil on Herschel Island are 34.8kg C m(-2) and 3.4kgNm(-2), respectively. Copyright (c) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.