Permafrost, a key component of Arctic ecosystems, is currently affected by climate warming and anticipated to undergo further significant changes in this century. The most pronounced changes are expected to occur in the transition zone between the discontinuous and continuous types of permafrost. We apply a transient temperature dynamic model to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of permafrost conditions on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska-a region currently characterized by continuous permafrost in its northern part and discontinuous permafrost in the south. We calibrate model parameters using a variational data assimilation technique exploiting historical ground temperature measurements collected across the study area. The model is then evaluated with a separate control set of the ground temperature data. Calibrated model parameters are distributed across the domain according to ecosystem types. The forcing applied to our model consists of historic monthly temperature and precipitation data and climate projections based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Simulated near-surface permafrost extent for the 2000-2010 decade agrees well with existing permafrost maps and previous Alaska-wide modeling studies. Future projections suggest a significant increase (3.0 degrees C under RCP 4.5 and 4.4 degrees C under RCP 8.5 at the 2 m depth) in mean decadal ground temperature on average for the peninsula for the 2090-2100 decade when compared to the period of 2000-2010. Widespread degradation of the near-surface permafrost is projected to reduce its extent at the end of the 21st century to only 43% of the peninsula's area under RCP 4.5 and 8% under RCP 8.5.

Recently, there has been a revival in the development of models simulating coupled heat and water transport in cold regions. These models represent significant advances in our ability to simulate the sensitivity of permafrost environments to future climate change. However, there are considerable differences in model formulations arising from the diverse backgrounds of researchers and practitioners in this field. The variability in existing model formulations warrants a review and synthesis of the underlying theory to demonstrate the implicit assumptions and limitations of a particular approach. This contribution examines various forms of the Clapeyron equation, the relationship between the soil moisture curve and soil freezing curve, and processes for developing soil freezing curves and hydraulic conductivity models for partially frozen soils. Where applicable, results from recent laboratory tests are presented to demonstrate the validity of existing theoretical formulations. Identified variations in model formulations form the basis for briefly comparing and contrasting existing models. Several unresolved questions are addressed to highlight the need for further research in this rapidly expanding field. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A functional model of the permafrost-climate system is applied at national scale, to produce a map of near-surface ground temperatures in the permafrost regions of Canada. The TTOP model links the temperature at the top of permafrost (TTOP) to the climate through seasonal surface transfer functions and subsurface thermal properties. The parameters in the model were compiled at national scale for Canada, although the topographic effects of the Western Cordillera were not incorporated into the analysis. The objective of the study was accomplished by implementing the TTOP model within a Geographical Information System. The TTOP map is evaluated against the published Ground Temperature Map of Canada. The published map shows ground temperatures according to a scale of temperature classes, so TTOP values were categorized into the same classes. Across the permafrost regions of Canada, 72.1% of the area is in the same class in both maps, while 27.7% differs by one temperature class. Only 0.2% of the area differs by two temperature classes. The results suggest that the TTOP model can provide a rational and functional basis for relating near-surface permafrost temperature and climate at national and regional scales. The model could be applied to the assessment of climate change impacts on the magnitude and distribution of permafrost temperatures. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.