The freeze-thaw cycle of near-surface soils significantly affects energy and water exchanges between the atmosphere and land surface. Passive microwave remote sensing is commonly used to observe the freeze-thaw state. However, existing algorithms face challenges in accurately monitoring near-surface soil freeze/thaw in alpine zones. This article proposes a framework for enhancing freeze/thaw detection capability in alpine zones, focusing on band combination selection and parameterization. The proposed framework was tested in the three river source region (TRSR) of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Results indicate that the framework effectively monitors the freeze/thaw state, identifying horizontal polarization brightness temperature at 18.7 GHz (TB18.7H) and 23.8 GHz (TB23.8H) as the optimal band combinations for freeze/thaw discrimination in the TRSR. The framework enhances the accuracy of the freeze/thaw discrimination for both 0 and 5-cm soil depths. In particular, the monitoring accuracy for 0-cm soil shows a more significant improvement, with an overall discrimination accuracy of 90.02%, and discrimination accuracies of 93.52% for frozen soil and 84.68% for thawed soil, respectively. Furthermore, the framework outperformed traditional methods in monitoring the freeze-thaw cycle, reducing root mean square errors for the number of freezing days, initial freezing date, and thawing date by 16.75, 6.35, and 12.56 days, respectively. The estimated frozen days correlate well with both the permafrost distribution map and the annual mean ground temperature distribution map. This study offers a practical solution for monitoring the freeze/thaw cycle in alpine zones, providing crucial technical support for studies on regional climate change and land surface processes.

This study assesses the vulnerability of Arctic coastal settlements and infrastructure to coastal erosion, Sea-Level Rise (SLR) and permafrost warming. For the first time, we characterize coastline retreat consistently along permafrost coastal settlements at the regional scale for the Northern Hemisphere. We provide a new method to automatically derive long-term coastline change rates for permafrost coasts. In addition, we identify the total number of coastal settlements and associated infrastructure that could be threatened by marine and terrestrial changes using remote sensing techniques. We extended the Arctic Coastal Infrastructure data set (SACHI) to include road types, airstrips, and artificial water reservoirs. The analysis of coastline, Ground Temperature (GT) and Active Layer Thickness (ALT) changes from 2000 to 2020, in addition with SLR projection, allowed to identify exposed settlements and infrastructure for 2030, 2050, and 2100. We validated the SACHI-v2, GT and ALT data sets through comparisons with in-situ data. 60% of the detected infrastructure is built on low-lying coast (< 10 m a.s.l). The results show that in 2100, 45% of all coastal settlements will be affected by SLR and 21% by coastal erosion. On average, coastal permafrost GT is increasing by 0.8 degrees C per decade, and ALT is increasing by 6 cm per decade. In 2100, GT will become positive at 77% of the built infrastructure area. Our results highlight the circumpolar and international amplitude of the problem and emphasize the need for immediate adaptation measures to current and future environmental changes to counteract a deterioration of living conditions and ensure infrastructure sustainability.

Under the interference of climate warming and human engineering activities, the degradation of permafrost causes the frequent occurrence of geological disasters such as uneven foundation settlement and landslides, which brings great challenges to the construction and operational safety of road projects. In this paper, the spatial and temporal evolution of surface deformations along the Beihei Highway was investigated by combining the SBAS-InSAR technique and the surface frost number model after considering the vegetation factor with multi-source remote sensing observation data. After comprehensively considering factors such as climate change, permafrost degradation, anthropogenic disturbance, and vegetation disturbance, the surface uneven settlement and landslide processes were analyzed in conjunction with site surveys and ground data. The results show that the average deformation rate is approximately -16 mm/a over the 22 km of the study area. The rate of surface deformation on the pavement is related to topography, and the rate of surface subsidence on the pavement is more pronounced in areas with high topographic relief and a sunny aspect. Permafrost along the roads in the study area showed an insignificant degradation trend, and at landslides with large surface deformation, permafrost showed a significant degradation trend. Meteorological monitoring data indicate that the annual minimum mean temperature in the study area is increasing rapidly at a rate of 1.266 degrees C/10a during the last 40 years. The occurrence of landslides is associated with precipitation and freeze-thaw cycles. There are interactions between permafrost degradation, landslides, and vegetation degradation, and permafrost and vegetation are important influences on uneven surface settlement. Focusing on the spatial and temporal evolution process of surface deformation in the permafrost zone can help to deeply understand the mechanism of climate change impact on road hazards in the permafrost zone.

Uncertainty plays a key role in hydrological modeling and forecasting, which can have tremendous environmental, economic, and social impacts. Therefore, it is crucial to comprehend the nature of this uncertainty and identify its scope and effects in a way that enhances hydrological modeling and forecasting. During recent decades, hydrological researchers investigated several approaches for reducing inherent uncertainty considering the limitations of sensor measurement, calibration, parameter setting, model conceptualization, and validation. Nevertheless, the scope and diversity of applications and methodologies, sometimes brought from other disciplines, call for an extensive review of the state-of-the-art in this field in a way that promotes a holistic view of the proposed concepts and provides textbook-like guidelines to hydrology researchers and the community. This paper contributes to this goal where a systematic review of the last decade's research (2010 onward) is carried out. It aims to synthesize the theories and tools for uncertainty reduction in surface hydrological forecasting, providing insights into the limitations of the current state-of-the-art and laying down foundations for future research. A special focus on remote sensing and multi-criteria-based approaches has been considered. In addition, the paper reviews the current state of uncertainty ontology in hydrological studies and provides new categorizations of the reviewed techniques. Finally, a set of freely accessible remotely sensed data and tools useful for uncertainty handling and hydrological forecasting are reviewed and pointed out.

In Central Asia, the ground thermal regime is strongly affected by the interplay between topographic factors and ecosystem properties. In this study, we investigate the governing factors of the ground thermal regime in an area in Central Mongolia, which features discontinuous permafrost and is characterized by grassland and forest ecosystems. Miniature temperature dataloggers were used to measure near-surface temperatures at c. 100 locations throughout the 6 km2 large study area, with the goal to obtain a sample of sites that can represent the variability of different topographic and ecosystem properties. Mean annual near-surface ground temperatures showed a strong variability, with differences of up to 8 K. The coldest sites were all located in forests on north-facing slopes, while the warmest sites are located on steep south-facing slopes with sparse steppe vegetation. Sites in forests show generally colder near-surface temperatures in spring, summer and fall compared to grassland sites, but they are warmer during the winter season. The altitude of the measurement sites did not play a significant role in determining the near-surface temperatures, while especially solar radiation was highly correlated. In addition, we investigated the suitability of different hyperspectral indices calculated from Sentinel-2 as predictors for annual average near-surface ground temperatures. We found that especially indices sensitive to vegetation properties, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), show a strong correlation. The presented observations provide baseline data on the spatiotemporal patterns of the ground thermal regime which can be used to train or validate modelling and remote sensing approaches targeting the impacts of climate change.

Aerosols affect Earth's climate both directly and indirectly, which is the largest uncertainty in the assessment of radiative forcings affecting anthropogenic climate change. The standard Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) aerosol products have been widely used for more than 30 years. Currently, there is strong community interest in the possibility of determining aerosol composition directly from remote sensing observations. This work presents the results of applying such a recently developed approach by Li et al. to extended datasets of the directional sky radiances and spectral aerosol optical depth (AOD) measured by AERONET for the retrievals of aerosol components. First, the validation of aerosol optical properties retrieved by this component approach with AERONET standard products shows good agreement. Then, spatiotemporal variations of the obtained aerosol component concentration are characterized globally, especially the absorbing aerosol species (black carbon, brown carbon, and iron oxides) and scattering aerosol species (organic carbon, quartz, and inorganic salts). Finally, we compared the black carbon (BC) and dust column concentration retrievals to the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), products in several regions of interest (Amazon zone, Desert, and Taklamakan Desert) for new insights on the quantitative assessment of MERRA-2 aerosol composition products (R = 0.60-0.85 for BC; R = 0.75-0.90 for dust). The new value-added and long-term aerosol composition product globally is available online (https://doi.org/10.6084/ m9.figshare.25415239.v1), which provides important measurements for the improvement and optimization of aerosol modeling to enhance estimation of the aerosol radiative forcing. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: In the assessment of climate change, the uncertainty associated with aerosol radiative forcing is the largest one. The purpose of this study is to provide a new value-added and long-term aerosol composition (including absorbing and scattering aerosol species) inversion dataset derived from Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) measurements for characterizing their spatiotemporal variations at global scale. We find some new insights on the quantitative assessment of black carbon and dust column concentration products in the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). Our results and aerosol composition inversion dataset will provide robust support for the overall improvement and optimization of aerosol modeling to better understand the aerosol radiative forcing.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a vital role in the global carbon cycle and soil quality assessment. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is one of the largest plateaus in the world. Therefore, in this region, SOC density and the spatial distribution of SOC are highly sensitive to climate change and human intervention. Given the insufficient understanding of the spatial distribution of SOC density in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, this study utilized machine learning (ML) algorithms to estimate the density and distribution pattern of SOC density in the region. In this study, we first collected multisource data, such as optical remote sensing data, synthetic aperture radar) (SAR) data, and other environmental variables, including socioeconomic factors, topographic factors, climate factors, and soil properties. Then, we used ML algorithms, namely random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), to estimate the topsoil SOC density and spatial distribution patterns of SOC density. We also aimed to investigate any driving factors. The results are as follows: (1) The average SOC density is 5.30 kg/m(2). (2) Among the three ML algorithms used, LightGBM showed the highest validation accuracy (R-2 = 0.7537, RMSE = 2.4928 kgC/m(2), MAE = 1.7195). (3) The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), valley depth (VD), and temperature are crucial in predicting the spatial distribution of topsoil SOC density. Feature importance analyses conducted using the three ML models all showed these factors to be among the top three in importance, with contribution rates of 14.08%, 12.29%, and 14.06%; 17.32%, 20.73%, and 24.62%; and 16.72%, 11.96%, and 20.03%. (4) Spatially, the southeastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has the highest topsoil SOC density, with recorded values ranging from 8.41 kg/m(2) to 13.2 kg/m(2), while the northwestern part has the lowest density, with recorded values ranging from 0.85 kg/m(2) to 2.88 kg/m(2). Different land cover types showed varying SOC density values, with forests and grasslands having higher SOC densities compared to urban and bare land areas. The findings of this study provide a scientific basis for future soil resource management and improved carbon sequestration accounting in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Recent research on the Himalayan cryosphere has increasingly been focused on climate uncertainty and regional variations, considering features such as glacier recession, lake expansion, outburst floods, and regional hazards. The Bhilangana river basin, located in the central Himalayas, is predominantly characterized by increased elevation-dependent warming and declining seasonal precipitation. Our study shows that high-elevation temperature increased from 2000 to 2022 (0.05(degrees)C/year, p = 20 m/sec). Quantification of the regional hazard reveals potentially severe downstream challenges for low-to-medium-scale hydropower stations, local settlements, and road and railway bridges near Devling and Ghuttu villages.

The Kaxgar River Basin, a key of the Tarim River Basin, is a typical ecologically fragile region that has undergone rapid changes to its spatial patterns over the preceding few decades. In particular, the expansion of salinized land has posed a severe threat to ecological restoration and economic development. This study monitored the rates and patterns of land use and land cover (LULC) changes in the plain area of Aketao County in the middle reaches of the Kaxgar River Basin. Five Landsat images (captured in 1990, 1998, 2002, 2013, and 2018) were divided into seven LULC types: built-up land, cultivated land, woodland and grassland, light-moderate salinized land, heavy salinized land, water areas, and bare land. Subsequently, their dynamic processes were analyzed. The results revealed that in 1990, the dominant LULCs were cultivated land, woodland and grassland, and bare land. Throughout the study period (from 1990 to 2018), the coverage of built-up land, cultivated land, bare land, water areas, and light-moderate salinized land increased; by contrast, that of the other LULC types decreased. The most marked LULC changes were the expansion of light-moderate salinized land (by 6.2% of the study area) and the shrinkage of woodland and grassland (by 9.4% of the study area). Almost all the analyzed LULC types underwent conversion to other types; such conversion occurred most frequently between 1998 and 2018. The conversions of woodland and grassland into cultivated land and light-moderate salinized land were the most notable phenomena. Another highly evident change was the conversion of heavy salinized land into bare land. These results revealed that the expansion of salinized land and the shrinkage of woodland and grassland in the study area were the most severe environmental changes. Therefore, ecological protection and salinization control are urgently required to enable local economic development while not exceeding the environmental carrying capacity and ensuring the safety of the green corridor in the lower reaches of the Kaxgar River Basin.

The seasonal mountain snowpack of the Western US (WUS) is a key water resource to millions of people and an important component of the regional climate system. Impurities at the snow surface can affect snowmelt timing and rate through snow radiative forcing (RF), resulting in earlier streamflow, snow disappearance, and less water availability in dry months. Predicting the locations, timing, and intensity of impurities is challenging, and little is known concerning whether snow RF has changed over recent decades. Here we analyzed the relative magnitude and spatio-temporal variability of snow RF across the WUS at three spatial scales (pixel, watershed, regional) using remotely sensed RF from spatially and temporally complete (STC) MODIS data sets (STC-MODIS Snow Covered Area and Grain Size/MODIS Dust Radiative Forcing on Snow) from 2001 to 2022. To quantify snow RF impacts, we calculated a pixel-integrated metric over each snowmelt season (1st March-30th June) in all 22 years. We tested for long-term trend significance with the Mann-Kendall test and trend magnitude with Theil-Sen's slope. Mean snow RF was highest in the Upper Colorado region, but notable in less-studied regions, including the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. Watersheds with high snow RF also tended to have high spatial and temporal variability in RF, and these tended to be near arid regions. Snow RF trends were largely absent; only a small percent of mountain ecoregions (0.03%-8%) had significant trends, and these were typically decreasing trends. All mountain ecoregions exhibited a net decline in snow RF. While the spatial extent of significant RF trends was minimal, we found declining trends most frequently in the Sierra Nevada, North Cascades, and Canadian Rockies, and increasing trends in the Idaho Batholith. This study establishes a two-decade chronology of snow impurities in the WUS, helping inform where and when RF impacts on snowmelt may need to be considered in hydrologic models and regional hydroclimate studies.