Rapid atmospheric warming changes the thermal conditions of permafrost over the Northern Hemisphere (NH), including ground temperature warming and ground ice thawing. This warming and thawing of ice-rich permafrost damages existing infrastructure and poses a threat to sustainable development. Bearing capacity (BC) loss and ground subsidence (GS) due to permafrost thawing are two major risks to the infrastructure and key indexes for risk assessment. However, current information on the BC and GS is too coarse, restricted to the Arctic, and scarce for future periods. The aim of this study was to address these gaps by presenting spatial data on the BC and GS for current and future periods across the NH at a resolution of 1 km. A machine learning-based approach was developed to simulate permafrost thermal dynamics under four climate scenarios (SSPs 1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5). The associated changes in the BC and GS were estimated based on changes in the permafrost temperature at or near the depth of zero annual amplitude (MAGT) and active-layer thickness (ALT). The results indicate a continuous increase in MAGT and ALT by 2.3 degrees C (SSPs1-2.6) to 7.6 degrees C (SSPs5-8.5) and 16.0 cm (SSPs1-2.6) to 51.0 cm (SSPs5-8.5), respectively, at the end of the 21ts century. This permafrost degradation will lead to a high potential BC loss of 37.8% (SSPs1-2.6) to 40.2% (SSPs5-8.5) on average over 2041-2060, and up to 60.5% (SSPs1-2.6) to 92.2% (SSPs5-8.5) in 2081-2100. The produced average GS is approximately 1.0 cm in 2021-2040, and further up to 1.5 cm (SSPs1-2.6) to 4.7 cm (SSPs5-8.5) in 2081-2100, with notable variations across the permafrost region. These forecasts provide new opportunities to assess future permafrost changes and associated risks and costs with climate warming.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in an AMS(14)C-dated permafrost soil core extracted from continuous permafrost zone were measured to reconstruct the pollution history from the early Holocene (ca. 15480 a BP) and its potential risks under climate changes were evaluated in northeast China. Total PAH concentrations varied from 209 to 2161 ng/g through the core, which were moderately contaminated in the surface but heavily contaminated historically. Factor analysis indicated that volcanic activity, diagenesis from biological precursors and palaeo forest fires were dominant PAH sources, while petroleum emission was identified in the active layer due to the construction of China-Russia oil pipeline. Significant increases in 5-ring, 6-ring and 7 carcinogenic PAHs (p < 0.05) were observed from surface to the interface of the active layer and ice-rich permafrost layer, showing a selective downward migration in the active layer which might be effected by the repetitive cycles of freezing and thawing. Results implied that PAHs in the ice-rich permafrost layer could lead to an unpredictably serious consequence under the further climate warming.

Floods are a widespread natural disaster with substantial economic implications and far-reaching consequences. In Northern Pakistan, the Hunza-Nagar valley faces vulnerability to floods, posing significant challenges to its sustainable development. This study aimed to evaluate flood risk in the region by employing a GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach and big climate data records. By using a comprehensive flood risk assessment model, a flood hazard map was developed by considering nine influential factors: rainfall, regional temperature variation, distance to the river, elevation, slope, Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), Topographic wetness index (TWI), land use/land cover (LULC), curvature, and soil type. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) analysis assigned weights to each factor and integrated with geospatial data using a GIS to generate flood risk maps, classifying hazard levels into five categories. The study assigned higher importance to rainfall, distance to the river, elevation, and slope compared to NDVI, TWI, LULC, curvature, and soil type. The weighted overlay flood risk map obtained from the reclassified maps of nine influencing factors identified 6% of the total area as very high, 36% as high, 41% as moderate, 16% as low, and 1% as very low flood risk. The accuracy of the flood risk model was demonstrated through the Receiver Operating Characteristics-Area Under the Curve (ROC-AUC) analysis, yielding a commendable prediction accuracy of 0.773. This MCDA approach offers an efficient and direct means of flood risk modeling, utilizing fundamental GIS data. The model serves as a valuable tool for decision-makers, enhancing flood risk awareness and providing vital insights for disaster management authorities in the Hunza-Nagar Valley. As future developments unfold, this study remains an indispensable resource for disaster preparedness and management in the Hunza-Nagar Valley region.

The study analyzed synthetically spatiotemporal distribution and evolution status of moraine-dammed lakes and potential dangerous glacial lakes (PDGLs) in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and revealed integrated risk degree of county-based glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) disaster by combining hazard of PDGLs, regional exposure, vulnerability of exposed elements, and adaptability and using the analytic hierarchy process and weighted comprehensive method. The results show there are 654 moraine-dammed lakes (> 0.018 km(2)) with a total area of 200.25 km(2)in the QTP in the 2010s, of which 246 lakes with a total area of 78.38 km(2)are identified as PDGLs. Compared with 1990s, the number of lakes decreased only by 2.22%, whereas total lake area expanded by 25%. All PDGLs area increased by 84.40% and was higher significantly than 4.06% of non-PDGLs. The zones at very high and high integrated risk of GLOF disasters are concentrated on the middle Himalayas, middle-eastern Nyainqentanglha, and southern Tanggula Mountain. On the county scale, Nyalam, Tingri, Dinggye, Lhozhag, Zhongba, Gamba, Kangma of the Himalayas, and Nierong, Dingqing, Banbar, Baqing, Bomi, and Basu of the Nyainqentanglha are located in the very high-risk zone, whereas other areas have low and very low integrated risk. The regionalization results for GLOF disasters risk are consistent with the distribution of historical GLOF disaster sites.

Glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is one of the major natural disasters in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). On 25 June 2020, the outburst of the Jiwenco Glacial Lake (JGL) in the upper reaches of Nidu river in Jiari County of the QTP reached the downstream Niwu Township on 26 June, causing damage to many bridges, roads, houses, and other infrastructure, and disrupting telecommunications for several days. Based on radar and optical image data, the evolution of the JGL before and after the outburst was analyzed. The results showed that the area and storage capacity of the JGL were 0.58 square kilometers and 0.071 cubic kilometers, respectively, before the outburst (29 May), and only 0.26 square kilometers and 0.017 cubic kilometers remained after the outburst (27 July). The outburst reservoir capacity was as high as 5.4 million cubic meters. The main cause of the JGL outburst was the heavy precipitation process before outburst and the ice/snow/landslides entering the lake was the direct inducement. The outburst flood/debris flow disaster also led to many sections of the river and buildings in Niwu Township at high risk. Therefore, it is urgent to pay more attention to glacial lake outburst floods and other low-probability disasters, and early real-time engineering measures should be taken to minimize their potential impacts.

Background: Black carbon (BC) caused by incomplete combustion of fossil and bio-fuel has a dual effect on health and climate. There is a need for systematic approaches to evaluation of health outcomes and climate impacts relevant to BC exposure. Objectives: We propose and illustrate for the first time, to our knowledge, an integrated analysis of a region-specific health model with climate change valuation module to quantify the health and climate consequences of BC exposure. Methods: Based on the data from regional air pollution monitoring stations from 2013 to 2014 in the Pearl River Delta region (PRD), China, we analyzed the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effects and the relative risk of cause-specific mortality due to BC exposure in three typical cities of the PRD (i.e. Guangzhou, Jiangmen and Huizhou). The radiative forcing (RF) and heating rate (HR) were calculated by the Fu-Liou-Gu (FLG) plane-parallel radiation model and the conversion of empirical formula. We further connected the health and climate impacts by calculating the excess mortalities attributed to climate warming due to BC. Results: Between 2013 and 2014, carcinogenic risks of adults and children due to BC exposure in the PRD were higher than the recommended limits (1 x 10(-6) to 1 x 10(-4)), resulting in an excess of 4.82 cancer cases per 10,000 adults (4.82 x 10(-4)) and an excess of 1.97 cancer cases per 10,000 children (1.97 x 10(-4)). Non-carcinogenic risk caused by BC was not found. The relative risks of BC exposure on mortality were higher in winter and dry season. The atmospheric RFs of BC were 26.31 W m(-2), 26.41 W m(-2), and 22.45 W m(-2) for Guangzhou, Jiangmen and Huizhou, leading to a warming of the atmosphere in the PRD. The estimated annual excess mortalities of climate warming due to BC were 5052 (95% CI: 1983, 8139), 5121 (95% CI: 2010, 8249) and 4363 (95% CI: 1712, 7032) for Guangzhou, Jiangmen and Huizhou, respectively. Conclusion: Our estimates suggest that current levels of BC exposure in the PRD region posed a considerable risk to human health and the climate. Reduction of BC emission could lead to substantial health and climate co-benefits.

The Tibetan Plateau is the largest high altitude landform on Earth, with an area of over 2.5x10(6) km(2) and an average elevation of similar to 4000 m above sea level. With a unique multisphere environmental system, the Tibetan Plateau provides an important ecological sheltering function for China and other parts of Asia. The Tibetan Plateau is one of the world's most pristine regions, benefiting from a sparse population with negligible local influence on its environment. However, it is surrounded by some of the most polluted areas in the world, such as South Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia. With the atmospheric circulation, such pollutants may impact the Tibetan Plateau through long-range transport. Clearly, the scientific research on the transboundary transport of pollutants is not only important for the understanding of multisphere interactions on the earth surface, but also could meet the national strategic needs for ecological and environmental protection. Long-term monitoring combined with short-term intensive observation campaigns, were used to comprehensively summarize the latest research progress regarding the spatial-temporal distribution and transport mechanism of air pollutants, as well as their climate and ecological impacts, which were achieved during the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition. With respect of historical trends reconstructed from environmental archives, e.g., glacial ice cores and lake sediments, the black carbon and heavy metals like mercury show a dramatic increase since 1950s, which reflect the enhanced emission of air pollutants in Asia. On-line observation data and WRF-Chem modeling indicate that upper air circulation and local mountain-valley breeze system are the main drivers of trans Himalaya air pollution from South Asia. A regional climate-chemistry model coupled with an aerosol-snow/ice feedback module was used to reveal the natural and anthropogenic light-absorbing aerosols' radiative effects over the Tibetan Plateau. Results indicated that the mineral dust both in the atmosphere and snow induced 0.1-0.5 degrees C warming over the western Tibetan Plateau and Kunlun Mountains in spring. Meanwhile, dust aerosols caused snow water equivalent to decrease by 5-25 mm over the western TP, Himalayas and Pamir Mountains in winter and spring. The radiative effects of BC-in-snow induced surface temperature increased by 0.1-1.5 degrees C and snow water equivalent decreased by 5-25 mm over the western Tibetan Plateau and Himalayas. According to the observations the black carbon and dust found in the snow and ice on the surfaces of glaciers were responsible for on average 20% of the albedo reduction within the TP region. Those atmospherically transported pollutants also have obvious negative impacts on the ecosystem in Tibetan Plateau. For example, bioaccumulation of DDTs have been found in Tibetan terrestrial and aquatic food chains, and newly emerging compounds such as polyfluoroalkyl substances and hexabromocyclodo-decanes have been widely detected in wild fish species. Therefore, the corresponding ecological risks are of great concern. In the future, it is necessary to quantify the extent of atmospherically transported pollution and model the pollutant fate under the future environmental scenarios as well as establish environmental and health risk.