Quantifying the impact of climate change on hydrologic features is essential for the scientific planning, management and sustainable use of water resources in Northwest China. Based on hydrometeorological data and glacier inventory data, the Spatial Processes in Hydrology (SPHY) model was used to simulate the changes of hydrologic processes in the Upper Shule River (USR) from 1971 to 2020, and variations of runoff and runoff components were quantitatively analyzed using the simulations and observations. The results showed that the glacier area has decreased by 21.8% with a reduction rate of 2.06 km(2)/a. Significant increasing trends in rainfall runoff, glacier runoff (GR) and baseflow indicate there has been a consistent increase in total runoff due to increasing rainfall and glacier melting. The baseflow has made the largest contribution to total runoff, followed by GR, rainfall runoff and snow runoff, with mean annual contributions of 38%, 28%, 18% and 16%, respectively. The annual contribution of glacier and snow runoff to the total runoff shows a decreasing trend with decreasing glacier area and increasing temperature. Any increase of total runoff in the future will depend on an increase of rainfall, which will exacerbate the impact of drought and flood disasters.

Study region: This study focuses on the upper reaches of Shule river (URSLH) and Heihe river (URHH) basins and Taolai river (URTLH) basin in Qilian Mountains.Study focus: The impact of the cryosphere changes on runoff components in basins with different cryosphere ratios.New hydrological insights for the region: Total runoff (TR) increased in URSLH and URHH and decreased in URTLH, snowmelt runoff (SR) decreased in each basin, glacier runoff (GR) increased in URSLH and URTLH but decreased in URHH during 1980-2015. In the future, GR will increase under SSP585 and slightly decrease under SSP126 in 2040-2060 in URSLH and decrease in URHH and URSLH. The peak time of SR will advance by a month in each basin. In the future, GR (The ratio of the coefficient of variation (cv) of TR to cv of non-glacial runoff) will decrease, indicating hydrological regulation of glaciers will be weakened in these basins. SR and Rs (The ratio of summer runoff to spring runoff) will show downward trends, the processes of TR increase will be smoother. Rr (The ratio of maximum to minimum monthly runoff) will show downward trends under SSPs. TR will become smoother in each basin. Furthermore, the change of each runoff components will make TR tends to be smoother in the future and reduce TR especially in summer.

The impact on the hydrologic cycle of permafrost degradation under the influence of climate change has caused an inestimable threat to sustainable regulation of the ecosystem. This study quantified the responses of main hydrological elements, including soil moisture, groundwater, runoff components and discharge to totally degraded permafrost in eastern High Asia by establishing cases with and without thermodynamics using a cold region model combining hydrological processes and thermodynamics. The results showed that the model successfully simulated discharge in cold region basins. Totally degraded permafrost decreased soil moisture in the vadose zone (SMV) and increased the absolute depth to ground water (ADGW). In the daily scale, total permafrost degradation decreased the direct flow in autumn, slightly increased direct flow in spring and decreased interflow in summer. Total permafrost degradation also increased daily bascflow all year round and by >50% in spring, decreased daily discharge during autumn and increased daily discharge during spring. In the annual scale, total permafrost degradation increased direct flow, bascflow, and discharge, and decreased interflow. The magnitudes of these changes were positively related to the ratios of permafrost to the subbasin area. The responses of daily runoff components and discharge to totally degraded permafrost were significantly larger than the annual value. The groundwater level, direct flow and baseflow were far more sensitive to permafrost degradation than SMV, interflow and discharge. The responses of annual individual hydrological elements were more obvious than the annual discharge. These quantified results can be extensively used in lumped hydrology simulations, water resource assessments and eco-system management for partial permafrost degradation. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.