This study assesses the vulnerability of Arctic coastal settlements and infrastructure to coastal erosion, Sea-Level Rise (SLR) and permafrost warming. For the first time, we characterize coastline retreat consistently along permafrost coastal settlements at the regional scale for the Northern Hemisphere. We provide a new method to automatically derive long-term coastline change rates for permafrost coasts. In addition, we identify the total number of coastal settlements and associated infrastructure that could be threatened by marine and terrestrial changes using remote sensing techniques. We extended the Arctic Coastal Infrastructure data set (SACHI) to include road types, airstrips, and artificial water reservoirs. The analysis of coastline, Ground Temperature (GT) and Active Layer Thickness (ALT) changes from 2000 to 2020, in addition with SLR projection, allowed to identify exposed settlements and infrastructure for 2030, 2050, and 2100. We validated the SACHI-v2, GT and ALT data sets through comparisons with in-situ data. 60% of the detected infrastructure is built on low-lying coast (< 10 m a.s.l). The results show that in 2100, 45% of all coastal settlements will be affected by SLR and 21% by coastal erosion. On average, coastal permafrost GT is increasing by 0.8 degrees C per decade, and ALT is increasing by 6 cm per decade. In 2100, GT will become positive at 77% of the built infrastructure area. Our results highlight the circumpolar and international amplitude of the problem and emphasize the need for immediate adaptation measures to current and future environmental changes to counteract a deterioration of living conditions and ensure infrastructure sustainability.

This study explores the carbon stability in the Arctic permafrost following the sea-level transgression since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The Arctic permafrost stores a significant amount of organic carbon sequestered as frozen particulate organic carbon, solid methane hydrate and free methane gas. Post-LGM sea-level transgression resulted in ocean water, which is up to 20 degrees C warmer compared to the average annual air mass, inundating, and thawing the permafrost. This study develops a one-dimensional multiphase flow, multicomponent transport numerical model and apply it to investigate the coupled thermal, hydraulic, microbial, and chemical processes occurring in the thawing subsea permafrost. Results show that microbial methane is produced and vented to the seawater immediately upon the flooding of the Arctic continental shelves. This microbial methane is generated by the biodegradation of the previously frozen organic carbon. The maximum seabed methane flux is predicted in the shallow water where the sediment has been warmed up, but the remaining amount of organic carbon is still high. It is less likely to cause seabed methane emission by methane hydrate dissociation. Such a situation only happens when there is a very shallow (similar to 200 m depth) intra-permafrost methane hydrate, the occurrence of which is limited. This study provides insights into the limits of methane release from the ongoing flooding of the Arctic permafrost, which is critical to understand the role of the Arctic permafrost in the carbon cycle, ocean chemistry and climate change. Arctic permafrost stores similar to 1,700 billion tons of organic carbon. If just a fraction of that melts, the escaping methane would become one of the world's largest sources of greenhouse gas and would severely impact the environment and the climate. Over the last similar to 18,000 years, a quarter of the stored organic carbon in the Arctic permafrost has been flooded by the rising, warm seas. This has melted the ice and degraded the permafrost. But what happens to the carbon pools? This study investigates the stability of the carbon in the Arctic permafrost following the flooding using a newly developed numerical model. Results show that microbial methane is generated and emitted to the seawater immediately following the flooding. This methane is produced by the biodegradation of the previously frozen organic carbon near the seafloor. The maximum methane emission is predicted in the shallow water near the coast where the sediment has been warmed up, but the remaining amount of organic carbon is still high. This study provides insights into the limits of methane release from the ongoing flooding of the Arctic permafrost, which is critical to understand the role of the Arctic permafrost in the carbon cycle, ocean chemistry and climate change. A numerical model is developed to simulate the coupled thermal, hydraulic, microbial and chemical processes in the thawing subsea permafrost The biodegradation of the ancient organic carbon in the thawing subsea permafrost results in seabed microbial methane emission Seabed methane emission is less likely to be caused by methane hydrate dissociation at the Arctic continental shelves

Coastal inundation causes considerable impacts on communities and economies. Sea level rise due to climate change increases the occurrence of coastal flood events, creating more challenges to coastal societies. Here we intend to draw the understanding of coastal inundation from our early studies, and provide a silhouette of our approaches in assessing climate change impacts as well as developing risk-based climate adaptation. As a result, we impart a distinctive view of the adaption towards the integration of asset design, coastal planning and policy development, which reflect multiscale approaches crossing individual systems to regions and then nation. Having the approaches, we also discussed the constraints that would be faced in adaptation implementation. In this regard, we initially follow the risk approach by illustrating hazards, exposure and vulnerability in relation to coastal inundation, and manifest the impact and risk assessment by considering an urban environment pertinent to built, natural, and socioeconomic systems. We then extend the scope and recommend the general approaches in developing adaptation to coastal inundation under climate change towards ameliorating overall risks, practically, by the reduction in exposure and vulnerability in virtue of the integration of design, planning and polices. In more details, a resilience design is introduced, to effectively enhance the capacity of built assets to resist coastal inundation impact. We then emphasize on the cost-effective adaptation for coastal planning, which delineates the problem of under-adaptation that leaves some potential benefits unrealized or over-adaptation that potentially consumes an excessive amount of resources. Finally, we specifically explore the issues in planning and policies in mitigating climate change risks, and put forward some emerging constraints in adaptation implementation. It suggests further requirements of harmonizing while transforming national policies into the contents aligned with provincial and local governments, communities, and households.