BACKGROUNDA major impact of invasive Myocastor coypus in their introduction range is the collapse of riverbanks and nearby infrastructure, such as railway lines, due to the species' burrowing activities. Because widespread implementation of preventive measures along watercourses is unfeasible, identifying susceptible areas is key to guide targeted management actions. This study used species-habitat models to: (i) identify local environmental features of the railway line/watercourse intersections (RLWIs) that make them particularly susceptible to coypu damage, and (ii) predict species occurrence probability over a wide lowland-hilly area of northern Italy (Lombardy) to identify priority areas for monitoring. RESULTSLocal-scale models identified that the RLWIs most susceptible to burrowing were those surrounded by arable land with interspersed hedgerows locally characterized by high herbaceous vegetation and clay soil. In urbanized areas and areas of intensive agriculture, coypu dens were generally located significantly closer to the railway, increasing the risk of collapse. A landscape-scale species distribution model showed that lowland areas along major rivers and lake shores, and also agricultural areas with a dense minor hydrographic network, particularly in the southeast of the study area, are more likely to be occupied by coypu. CONCLUSIONLocal-scale models showed that specific environmental characteristics increase the risk of burrowing near RLWIs. The landscape-scale model allowed us to predict which areas require thorough monitoring of RLWIs to search for such local characteristics to implement preventive management measures. The proposed model-based framework can be applied to any geographical context to predict and prevent coypu damage. (c) 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Though one of the most vulnerable terrestrial ecosystems, wetlands provide multiple ecosystem services, most notably storing carbon. It is now widely recognized that climate change could have a large impact on high-latitude wetlands. A key question is how climate change will affect the distribution pattern of wetland plant communities, and to what extent the transitions among different wetland plant communities respond to regional warming? To answer this question, we estimated the total SOC storage with 139 soil profiles in the Xing'anling Mountains and performed ensemble species distribution modelling for 11 dominant wetland plant communities by using numerous vegetation plots. Results show that 4.5-23.8% of the high-latitude wetlands in the study area would be lost following widespread thawing of permafrost under different climate warming scenarios by the end of this century. The total wetland SOC in the Xing'anling Mountains is estimated to be 1.58 Pg, about 25.5-29.3% of the total of China's wetlands, however, predicted wetland loss could put 5.4-20.5% (0.08-0.32 Pg C) of the total SOC storage at risk of instability. Our results also predicted a significant northward migration of southern Deyeuxia angustifolia communities driven by future climate changes. This wetland succession could profoundly reduce future carbon sequestration capacity of wetlands in the study area. The findings presented here are helpful for both current reserve management and future conservation planning of wetlands in the study area.