Vast stores of millennial-aged soil carbon (MSC) in permafrost peatlands risk leaching into the contemporary carbon cycle after thaw caused by climate warming or increased wildfire activity. Here we tracked the export and downstream fate of MSC from two peatland-dominated catchments in subarctic Canada, one of which was recently affected by wildlife. We tested whether thermokarst bog expansion and deepening of seasonally thawed soils due to wildfire increased the contributions of MSC to downstream waters. Despite being available for lateral transport, MSC accounted for <= 6% of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) pools at catchment outlets. Assimilation of MSC into the aquatic food web could not explain its absence at the outlets. Using delta C-13-Delta C-14-delta N-15-delta H-2 measurements, we estimated only 7% of consumer biomass came from MSC by direct assimilation and algal recycling of heterotrophic respiration. Recent wildfire that caused seasonally thawed soils to reach twice as deep in one catchment did not change these results. In contrast to many other Arctic ecosystems undergoing climate warming, we suggest waterlogged peatlands will protect against downstream delivery and transformation of MSC after climate- and wildfire-induced permafrost thaw.

Climate change is creating widespread ecosystem disturbance across the permafrost zone, including a rapid increase in the extent and severity of tundra wildfire. The expansion of this previously rare disturbance has unknown consequences for lateral nutrient flux from terrestrial to aquatic environments. Lateral loss of nutrients could reduce carbon uptake and slow recovery of already nutrient-limited tundra ecosystems. To investigate the effects of tundra wildfire on lateral nutrient export, we analyzed water chemistry in and around the 10-year-old Anaktuvuk River fire scar in northern Alaska. We collected water samples from 21 burned and 21 unburned watersheds during snowmelt, at peak growing season, and after plant senescence in 2017 and 2018. After a decade of ecosystem recovery, aboveground biomass had recovered in burned watersheds, but overall carbon and nitrogen remained similar to 20% lower, and the active layer remained similar to 10% deeper. Despite lower organic matter stocks, dissolved organic nutrients were substantially elevated in burned watersheds, with higher flow-weighted concentrations of organic carbon (25% higher), organic nitrogen (59% higher), organic phosphorus (65% higher), and organic sulfur (47% higher). Geochemical proxies indicated greater interaction with mineral soils in watersheds with surface subsidence, but optical analysis and isotopes suggested that recent plant growth, not mineral soil, was the main source of organic nutrients in burned watersheds. Burned and unburned watersheds had similar delta N-15-NO3-, indicating that exported nitrogen was of preburn origin (i.e., not recently fixed). Lateral nitrogen flux from burned watersheds was 2- to 10-fold higher than rates of background nitrogen fixation and atmospheric deposition estimated in this area. These findings indicate that wildfire in Arctic tundra can destabilize nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur previously stored in permafrost via plant uptake and leaching. This plant-mediated nutrient loss could exacerbate terrestrial nutrient limitation after disturbance or serve as an important nutrient release mechanism during succession.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of thermokarst, and accelerating the delivery of terrestrial organic material from previously sequestered sources to aquatic systems, where it is subject to further biochemical alteration. Rapid climate change in the glacially conditioned ice-rich and ice-marginal terrain of the Peel Plateau, western Canada, is accelerating thaw-driven mass wasting in the form of retrogressive thaw slumps, which are rapidly increasing in area, volume and thickness of permafrost thawed. Despite major perturbation of downstream sedimentary and geochemical fluxes, few studies have examined changes in flux and composition of particulate organic carbon (POC) in streams and rivers as a result of permafrost thaw. Here we show that the orders of magnitude increase in total organic carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus mobilized to streams from thaw slumps on the Peel Plateau is almost entirely due to POC and associated particulate nitrogen and phosphorus release. Slump-mobilized POC is compositionally distinct from its dissolved counterpart and appears to contain relatively greater amounts of degraded organic matter, as inferred from base-extracted fluorescence of particulate organic matter. Thus, slump-mobilized POC is potentially more recalcitrant than POC present in non-slump affected stream networks. Furthermore a substantial portion of POC mobilized from thaw slumps will be constrained within primary sediment stores in valley bottoms, where net accumulation is currently exceeding net erosion, resulting in century to millennial scale sequestration of thermokarst-mobilized POC. This study highlights the pressing need for better knowledge of sedimentary cascades, mobilization, and storage reservoirs in slump-affected streams, and baseline assessments of the biodegradability of POC and cycling of particulate nutrients within a sedimentary cascade framework. Explicit incorporation of POC dynamics into our understanding of land-water carbon mobilization in the face of permafrost thaw is critical for understanding implications of thermokarst for regional carbon cycling and fluvial ecosystems.

Increasing global warming has led to the incremental retreat of glaciers, which in turn affects the water supply of the rivers dependent on glacier melts. This is further affected by the increases in flooding that is attributable to heavy rains during the snowmelt season. An accurate estimation of streamflow is important for water resources planning and management. Therefore, this paper focuses on improving the streamflow forecast for Kaidu River Basin, situated at the north fringe of Yanqi basin on the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, China. The interannual and decadal scale oceanic-atmospheric oscillations, i.e.,Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), and El Nino-southern oscillation (ENSO), are used to generate streamflow volumes for the peak season (April-October) and the water year, which is from October of the previous year to September of the current year for a period from 1955-2006. A data-driven model, least-square support vector machine (LSSVM), was developed that incorporated oceanic atmospheric oscillations to increase the streamflow lead time. Based on performance measures, predicted streamflow volumes are in agreement with the measured volumes. Sensitivity analyses, performed to evaluate the effect of individual and coupled oscillations, revealed a stronger presence of coupled PDO, NAO, and ENSO indices within the basin. The AMO index shows a pronounced effect when individually compared with the other oscillation modes. Additionally, model-forecasted streamflow is better than that for climatology. Overall, very good streamflow predictions are obtained using the SVM modeling approach. Furthermore, the LSSVM streamflow predictions outperform the predictions obtained from the most widely used feed-forward back-propagation models, artificial neural network, and multiple linear regression. The current paper contributes in improving the streamflow forecast lead time, and identified a coupled climate signal within the basin. The increased lead time can provide useful information to water managers in improving the planning and management of water resources within the Kaidu River Basin. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Trails created by off-road vehicles (ORV) in boreal lowlands are known to cause local impacts, such as denuded vegetation, soil erosion, and permafrost thaw, but impacts on stream and watershed processes are less certain. In Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve (WRST), Alaska, ORV trails have caused local resource damage in intermountain lowlands with permafrost soils and abundant wetlands and there is a need to know whether these impacts are more extensive. Comparison of aerial photography from 1957, 1981, and 2004 coupled with ground surveys in 2009 reveal an increase in trail length and number and show an upslope expansion of a trail system around points of stream channel initiation. We hypothesized that these impacts could also cause premature initiation and headward expansion of channels because of lowered soil resistance and greater runoff accumulation as trails migrate upslope. Soil monitoring showed earlier and deeper thaw of the active layer in and adjacent to trails compared to reference sites. Several rainfall-runoff events during the summer of 2009 showed increased and sustained flow accumulation below trail crossings and channel shear forces sufficient to cause headward erosion of silt and peat soils. These observations of trail evolution relative to stream and wetland crossings together with process studies suggest that ORV trails are altering watershed processes. These changes in watershed processes appear to result in increasing drainage density and may also alter downstream flow regimes, water quality, and aquatic habitat. Addressing local land-use disturbances in boreal and arctic parklands with permafrost soils, such as WRST, where responses to climate change may be causing concurrent shifts in watershed processes, represents an important challenge facing resource managers.