The Central Yakutian permafrost landscape is rapidly being modified by land use and global warming, but small-scale thermokarst process variability and hydrological conditions are poorly understood. We analyze lake-area changes and thaw subsidence of young thermokarst lakes on ice-complex deposits (yedoma lakes) in comparison to residual lakes in alas basins during the last 70 years for a local study site and we record regional lake size and distribution on different ice-rich permafrost terraces using satellite and historical airborne imagery. Statistical analysis of climatic and ground-temperature data identified driving factors of yedoma- and alas-lake changes. Overall, lake area is larger today than in 1944 but alas-lake levels have oscillated greatly over 70 years, with a mean alas-lake-radius change rate of 1.63.0 m/yr. Anthropogenic disturbance and forest degradation initiated, and climate forced rapid, continuous yedoma-lake growth. The mean yedoma lake-radius change rate equals 1.21.0 m/yr over the whole observation period. Mean thaw subsidence below yedoma lakes is 6.21.4 cm/yr. Multiple regression analysis suggests that winter precipitation, winter temperature, and active-layer properties are primary controllers of area changes in both lake types; summer weather and permafrost conditions additionally influence yedoma-lake growth rates. The main controlling factors of alas-lake changes are unclear due to larger catchment areas and subsurface hydrological conditions. Increasing thermokarst activity is currently linked to older terraces with higher ground-ice contents, but thermokarst activity will likely stay high and wet conditions will persist within the near future in Central Yakutian alas basins.

To better understand the linkage between lake area change, permafrost conditions and intra-annual and inter-annual variability in climate, we explored the temporal and spatial patterns of lake area changes for a 422382-ha study area within Yukon Flats, Alaska using Landsat images of 17 dates between 1984 and 2009. Only closed basin lakes were used in this study. Among the 3529 lakes greater than 1 ha, closed basin lakes accounted for 65% by number and 50% by area. A multiple linear regression model was built to quantify the temporal change in total lake area with consideration of its intra-annual and inter-annual variability. The results showed that 80.7% of lake area variability was attributed to intra-annual and inter-annual variability in local water balance and mean temperature since snowmelt (interpreted as a proxy for seasonal thaw depth). Another 14.3% was associated with long-term change. Among 2280 lakes, 350 lakes shrank, and 103 lakes expanded. The lakes with similar change trends formed distinct clusters, so did the lakes with similar short term intra-annual and inter-annual variability. By analysing potential factors driving lake area changes including evaporation, precipitation, indicators for regional permafrost change, and flooding, we found that ice-jam flooding events were the most likely explanation for the observed temporal pattern. In addition to changes in the frequency of ice jam flooding events, the observed changes of individual lakes may be influenced by local variability in permafrost distributions and/or degradation. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.