In mid-July 2021, a quasi-stationary extratropical cyclone over parts of western Germany and eastern Belgium led to unprecedented sustained widespread precipitation, nearly doubling climatological monthly rainfall amounts in less than 72 h. This resulted in extreme flooding in many of the Eifel-Ardennes low mountain range river catchments with loss of lives, and substantial damage and destruction. Despite many reconstructions of the event, open issues on the underlying physical mechanisms remain. In a numerical laboratory approach based on a 52-member spatially and temporally consistent high-resolution hindcast reconstruction of the event with the integrated hydrological surface-subsurface model ParFlow, this study shows the prognostic capabilities of ParFlow and further explores the physical mechanisms of the event. Within the range of the ensemble, ParFlow simulations can reproduce the timing and the order of magnitude of the flood event without additional calibration or tuning. What stands out is the large and effective buffer capacity of the soil. In the simulations, the upper soil in the highly affected Ahr, Erft, and Kyll river catchments are able to buffer between about one third to half of the precipitation that does not contribute immediately to the streamflow response and leading eventually to widespread, very high soil moisture saturation levels. In case of the Vesdre river catchment, due to its initially higher soil water saturation levels, the buffering capacity is lower; hence more precipitation is transferred into discharge.

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that integrated assessment models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts.