By analyzing the last 50-60 years of climate changes in Arctic and Subarctic Yakutia, we have identified three distinct periods of climate development. The cold (1965-1987), pre-warming (1988-2004), and modern warming (2005-2023) periods are clearly identifiable. Yakutia's Arctic and Subarctic regions have experienced mean annual air temperature increases of 2.5 degrees C and 2.2 degrees C, respectively, compared to the cold period. The thawing index rose by an average of 171-214 degrees C-days, while the freezing index dropped by an average of 564-702 degrees C-days. During the pre-warming period, all three characteristics show a minor increase in warmth. Global warming intensified between 2005 and 2023, resulting in elevated permafrost temperatures and a deeper active layer. Monitoring data from the Tiksi site show that warming has been increasing at different depths since the mid-2000s. As a result, the permafrost temperature increased by 1.7 degrees C at a depth of 10 m and by 1.1 degrees C at a depth of 30 m. Soil temperature measurements at meteorological stations and observations at CALM sites both confirm the warming of the permafrost. A permafrost-climatic zoning study was conducted in Arctic and Subarctic Yakutia. Analysis identified seven regions characterized by similar responses to modern global warming. These study results form the foundation for future research on global warming's effects on permafrost and on how northern Yakutia's environment and economy adapt to the changing climate.

The majority of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and Mongolia are underlain by permafrost. We have examined trends in air temperature and associated freezing/thawing index by using a non-parametric statistical method for the QTP and Mongolia from 1961 to 2011. The annual air temperature and associated freezing/thawing index exhibit similar patterns, suggesting similar warming trend in the two regions. The annual warming trends of air temperature are 0.33 ?/decade and 0.37 ?/decade in the QTP and Mongolia, respectively. The freezing index show significantly decreasing trends with-56.7 ?.days/decade and-57.5 ?.days/decade, while the thawing index present obvious increasing trends of 68.2 ?.days/decade and 68.3 ?.days/decade in the QTP and Mongolia, respectively. We find that the variations of air temperature and freezing/thawing index exhibit prominent spatial heterogeneity, and the warming trends is attributed to different seasonal warming. The warming trends in the QTP are dominated by winter warming, it is coincide with previous studies. Contrary to the QTP, autumn warming mainly accounts for the warming trends in the Mongolia. In addition, a winter cooling trend is observed in the Mongolia during the last two decades. These findings will be helpful to better understand the spatial heterogeneity of permafrost changes.

Under the trend of climate warming, the high-latitude permafrost in Heilongjiang Province is becoming seriously degraded. The question of how to quantitatively analyze the spatial and temporal trends of multi-year permafrost has become fundamental for current permafrost research. In this study, the temporal and spatial variations of annual mean air temperature (MAAT), annual mean ground temperature (MAGST) and freezing/thawing index based on air and surface temperature data from 34 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province from 1971-2019, as well as the variation characteristics of permafrost distribution, were analyzed based on the freezing index model. The results showed that both MAAT and MAGST in Heilongjiang Province tended to decrease with the increase of altitude and latitude. For interannual variation, the MAAT and MAGST warming rates tended to be consistent across Heilongjiang Province, with multi-year variation from -8.64 to 5.60 degrees C and from -6.52 to 7.58 degrees C, respectively. From 1971-2019, the mean annual air freezing index (AFI) and ground surface freezing index (GFI) declined at -5.07 degrees C center dot d center dot a(-1) and -5.04 degrees C center dot d center dot a(-1), respectively, whereas the mean annual air thawing index (ATI) and ground surface thawing index (GTI) were elevated at 7.63 degrees C center dot d center dot a(-1) and 11.89 degrees C center dot d center dot a(-1), respectively. The spatial distribution of the multiyear mean AFI, ATI, GFI and GTI exhibited a latitudinal trend, whereas the effect of altitude in the northern mountainous areas was greater than that of latitude. Permafrost was primarily discovered in the Daxing'an and Xiaoxing'an Mountains in the north, and sporadically in the central mountainous regions. The southern boundary of permafrost shifted nearly 2 degrees to the north from 1970 to 2010s, while the southern boundary of permafrost in Heilongjiang Province was stable at nearly 51 degrees N. The total area of permafrost narrowed from 1.11 x 10(5) km(2) in the 1970s to 6.53 x 10(4) km(2) in the 2010s. The results of this study take on a critical significance for the analysis of the trend of perennial permafrost degradation at high latitudes in Heilongjiang Province and the whole northeastern China, as well as for mapping the distribution of large areas of permafrost using the freezing index model. This study provides a reference for natural cold resource development, ecological protection, climate change and engineering construction and maintenance in permafrost areas.

The Mongolian Plateau is located in the permafrost transitional zone between high-altitudinal and high-latitudinal permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. Current knowledge of the thermal state and changes in the permafrost on the Mongolian Plateau is limited. This study adopted an improved calculation method of the Mongolian Plateau air freezing and thawing index using the monthly air temperature reanalysis dataset from the Climate Research Unit (CRU). The spatial and temporal variation characteristics from 1901 to 2019 were further assessed by the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test and spatial interpolation methods. The results indicate that the spatial distributions of the freezing and thawing index show clear latitudinal zonality. Over the study period, the air freezing index decreased by 4.1 degrees C center dot d/yr, and the air thawing index increased by 2.3 degrees C center dot d/yr. The change point in the air thawing index appeared in 1995 (p < 0.05) based on the M-K method, in contrast to the so-called hiatus in global warming. Our results reveal rapid warming on the Mongolian Plateau, especially in the permafrost region, and are useful for studying permafrost changes on the Mongolian Plateau.

The Mongolian Plateau is located in the permafrost transitional zone between high-altitudinal and high-latitudinal permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. Current knowledge of the thermal state and changes in the permafrost on the Mongolian Plateau is limited. This study adopted an improved calculation method of the Mongolian Plateau air freezing and thawing index using the monthly air temperature reanalysis dataset from the Climate Research Unit (CRU). The spatial and temporal variation characteristics from 1901 to 2019 were further assessed by the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test and spatial interpolation methods. The results indicate that the spatial distributions of the freezing and thawing index show clear latitudinal zonality. Over the study period, the air freezing index decreased by 4.1 degrees C center dot d/yr, and the air thawing index increased by 2.3 degrees C center dot d/yr. The change point in the air thawing index appeared in 1995 (p < 0.05) based on the M-K method, in contrast to the so-called hiatus in global warming. Our results reveal rapid warming on the Mongolian Plateau, especially in the permafrost region, and are useful for studying permafrost changes on the Mongolian Plateau.

Mongolia is one of the most sensitive regions to climate change, located in the transition of several natural and permafrost zones. Long-term trends in air freezing and thawing indices can therefore enhance our understanding of climate change. This study focuses on changes of the spatiotemporal patterns in air freezing and thawing indices over Mongolia from 1960 to 2020, using observations at 30 meteorological stations. Our results shows that the freezing index ranges from -945.5 to -4,793.6 degrees C day, while the thawing index ranges from 1,164.4 to 4,021.3 degrees C day over Mongolia, and their spatial patterns clearly link to the latitude and altitude. During the study period, the trend in the thawing index (14.4 degrees C-day per year) was larger than the trend in the freezing index (up to -10.1 degrees C-day per year), which results in the net increase of air temperature by 2.4 degrees C across Mongolia. Overall, the increase in the thawing index was larger in the low latitudes and altitudes (e.g., the Gobi-desert, steppes, the Great lake depression and major river valleys) than in high latitudes and altitudes (mountain regions), while it was the opposite for the freezing index. The highest values for both thawing index and freezing index (i.e. the least negative values) have occurred during the last 2 decades. As the trends in the freezing and thawing indices and mean annual air temperature confirm intensive climate warming, increased permafrost degradation and shallower seasonally frozen ground are expected throughout Mongolia.

Changes in soil thermal regimes in cold climates have widespread impacts on hydrology, ecology, and the carbon cycle. The annual freezing and thawing index, which is generally calculated using daily temperature, has been widely used to estimate the freezing depth, active layer thickness, and the distribution of permafrost. However, continuous and reliable daily temperature data are scarce in cold climates, while monthly and annual temperature data are more readily available. If daily temperature data are unavailable, these indices can be estimated based on monthly or annual temperature data. In this study, we developed a resampling method for estimating the annual freezing and thawing index and compared the results with those produced by the existing methods. Daily temperature data with a 0.5 degrees resolution over the Northern Hemisphere during 1901-2012 were used to calculate the freezing/thawing index, and then the monthly and annual temperature were calculated and three different approaches were used to estimate the daily temperature and the freezing/thawing index. When the monthly data were used, the resampling method produced the smallest relative error (RE) and mean bias error (MBE), and the largest correlation in estimating the two indices, compared to the two other methods. Although the annual temperature data usually underestimate the freezing/thawing index, the RE is still <5% over most of the high-latitude regions. The results suggest that if the daily temperature can be reliably estimated using the resampling method, the thermal regimes of permafrost can be reliably estimated using modelled monthly temperature and/or reconstructed past monthly/annual temperature. These estimations can also be used to validate modelled paleo-permafrost and its variations. Additionally, our results indicate that after the 1970s the annual freezing index (DDF) increased substantially, while the frost index (FI) decreased substantially.

The climate change is significantly changing the hydro-thermal state of active layer at Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), which endangers permafrost environment. The degradation of permafrost would damage the linear engineering in cold regions; furthermore, the alternation of soil hydro-thermal state in the area of rugged terrain would lead to geo-hazards and then threaten the safety of local people. Global warming is widely accepted as a big threat to the ecological environment of arctic, subarctic and alpine regions, while the changing trend of precipitation around the world is still in dispute. Furthermore, the role of precipitation accompanied with global warming is unknown. Hence, in this study, the localized monitoring data from Beiluhe permafrost monitoring station at QTP, including atmospheric and soil hydro-thermal data, were utilized for further processing and comparative analysis. Firstly, the changing trend of precipitation here was investigated through the atmospheric data from 2003 to 2013. Thereafter, the hydro-thermal change of active layer was analyzed combined with precipitation events during this period. However, the raining pattern in QTP is characterized with continuity, short duration and small amount, basically referring to thawed season. The hydro-thermal change affected by corresponding raining event could be influenced by temporally nearby event in timescale. To differentiate the effect, the characteristic precipitation event (CPE) was selected through an elaborate algorithm. Subsequently, the hydro-thermal changes of active layer were reanalyzed in response to CPEs. Representative outcomes were chosen for the specific analysis under the influence from CPEs. Hence, under the circumstance of global warming, the effect from precipitation on the hydro-thermal properties of active layer was also obtained, and the possible harmful consequence induced by that was also discussed.

Due to sparse data and discontinuous time observations in the circum-Arctic region, freezing index and thawing index, as useful indicators, are widely used in permafrost distribution, climate changes and cold-region engineering analysis. However, previous researches on freezing/thawing index over this region were estimated based on mean monthly air temperature. In this paper, we analyzed the spatial and temporal variations of the freezing/thawing index over the circum-Arctic from 1901 to 2015 based on the daily datasets, besides monthly datasets. The results showed that freezing index had a downward changing trend and thawing index had an upward trend during 1901-2015. More important, the change trend in freezing/thawing index after 1988 was more significant than before. Furthermore, different freezing/thawing index based on daily datasets and the monthly datasets were assessed and compared according to daily data from 17 meteorological stations, comprehensive relative errors evaluation implied that freezing/thawing based on daily datasets was more accurate generally, although both of other datasets were available in calculating the freezing/thawing index. As the daily datasets are better in calculating annual freezing/thawing index, therefore, the permafrost extent was estimated by a climate-based predictive model combined with snow depth data from Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC). Finally, considering that the published permafrost map of the circum-Arctic only shows the past permafrost distribution, but it cannot reflect the permafrost distribution after 2000 under the climate warming. Hence, we simulated the current (mean from 2000 to 2015) permafrost area which is 19.96 x 10(6) km(2), and the results showed some discrepancies between published and simulated permafrost extent mainly located in isolated permafrost regions. (c) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Changes in the ground thermal regime in high-latitude cold regions have important consequences for surface and subsurface hydrology, the surface energy and moisture balance, carbon exchange, as well as ecosystem diversity and productivity. However, assessing these changes, particularly in light of significant atmospheric and terrestrial changes in recent decades, remains a challenge owing to data sparseness and discontinuous observations. The annual freezing and thawing index can be useful in evaluating permafrost and seasonally frozen ground distribution, has important engineering applications, and is a useful indicator of high-latitude climate change. The freezing/thawing index is generally defined based on daily observations, which are not readily available for many high-latitude locations. We thus employ monthly air temperatures, and provide an assessment of the validity of this approach. On the basis of a comprehensive relative error (RE) evaluation we find that our methodology introduces errors of less than 5% for most high-latitude land areas, and works well in many midlatitude regions as well. We evaluate a suite of gridded monthly temperature datasets and select the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) temperature product, available for 1901-2002. We are thus able to provide a continuous long-term 25 km x 25 km gridded Northern Hemisphere freezing/thawing index. Long-term climatologies of the freezing/thawing index delineate the cold regions of the Northern Hemisphere, as well as areas of seasonally frozen ground and permafrost. Objective trend analysis indicates that in recent decades, no significant changes have occurred in Russian permafrost regions; however, seasonally frozen ground areas are experiencing significant warming trends. Over North America, Canadian and Alaskan permafrost regions are experiencing a decrease in freezing index during the cold season, while coastal areas and eastern Canada are seeing significant increase in warm season thawing index. Copyright (c) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.