In alpine tundra regions, snowmelt plays a crucial role in creating spatial heterogeneity in soil moisture and nutrients across various terrains, influencing vegetation distribution. With climate warming, snowmelt has advanced, lengthening the growing season while also increasing the risk of frost damage to evergreen dwarf shrubs like Rhododendron aureum in alpine tundra regions. To understand these long-term effects, we used remote sensing imagery to analyze nearly four decades (1985-2022) of snowmelt date and the distribution change of R. aureum in Changbai Mountain, East China's only alpine tundra. Results show that snowmelt advanced by 1-3 days/10 years, with faster rates at higher elevations and shady slopes (0.4-0.6 days/10 years more than sunny slopes), while R. aureum increased more on shady slopes under such conditions. Our study demonstrates that these shifts in snowmelt date vary significantly across topographies and reveals how topography and snowmelt changes interact to shape the distribution of evergreen shrubs under climate warming.

The Arctic experiences rapid climate change, but our ability to predict how this will influence plant communities is hampered by a lack of data on the extent to which different species are associated with particular environmental conditions, how these conditions are interlinked, and how they will change in coming years. Increasing temperatures may negatively affect plants associated with cold areas due to increased competition with warm-adapted species, but less so if local temperature variability is larger than the expected increase. Here we studied the potential drivers of vegetation composition and species richness along coast to inland and altitudinal gradients by the Nuuk fjord in western Greenland using hierarchical modelling of species communities (HMSC) and linear mixed models. Community composition was more strongly associated with random variability at intermediate spatial scales (among plot groups 500 m apart) than with large-scale variability in summer temperature, altitude or soil moisture, and the variation in community composition along the fjord was small. Species richness was related to plant cover, altitude and slope steepness, which explained 42% of the variation, but not to summer temperature. Jointly, this suggests that the direct effect of climate change will be weak, and that many species are associated with microhabitat variability. However, species richness peaked at intermediate cover, suggesting that an increase in plant cover under warming climatic conditions may lead to decreasing plant diversity.

The extent of wildfires in tundra ecosystems has dramatically increased since the turn of the 21st century due to climate change and the resulting amplified Arctic warming. We simultaneously studied the recovery of vegetation, subsurface soil moisture, and active layer thickness (ALT) post-fire in the permafrost-underlain uplands of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in southwestern Alaska to understand the interaction between these factors and their potential implications. We used a space-for-time substitution methodology with 2017 Landsat 8 imagery and synthetic aperture radar products, along with 2016 field data, to analyze tundra recovery trajectories in areas burned from 1953 to 2017. We found that spectral indices describing vegetation greenness and surface albedo in burned areas approached the unburned baseline within a decade post-fire, but ecological succession takes decades. ALT was higher in burned areas compared to unburned areas initially after the fire but negatively correlated with soil moisture. Soil moisture was significantly higher in burned areas than in unburned areas. Water table depth (WTD) was 10 cm shallower in burned areas, consistent with 10 cm of the surface organic layer burned off during fire. Soil moisture and WTD did not recover in the 46 years covered by this study and appear linked to the long recovery time of the organic layer.

Environmental changes, such as climate warming and higher herbivory pressure, are altering the carbon balance of Arctic ecosystems; yet, how these drivers modify the carbon balance among different habitats remains uncertain. This hampers our ability to predict changes in the carbon sink strength of tundra ecosystems. We investigated how spring goose grubbing and summer warming-two key environmental-change drivers in the Arctic-alter CO2 fluxes in three tundra habitats varying in soil moisture and plant-community composition. In a full-factorial experiment in high-Arctic Svalbard, we simulated grubbing and warming over two years and determined summer net ecosystem exchange (NEE) alongside its components: gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (ER). After two years, we found net CO2 uptake to be suppressed by both drivers depending on habitat. CO2 uptake was reduced by warming in mesic habitats, by warming and grubbing in moist habitats, and by grubbing in wet habitats. In mesic habitats, warming stimulated ER (+75%) more than GEP (+30%), leading to a 7.5-fold increase in their CO2 source strength. In moist habitats, grubbing decreased GEP and ER by similar to 55%, while warming increased them by similar to 35%, with no changes in summer-long NEE. Nevertheless, grubbing offset peak summer CO2 uptake and warming led to a twofold increase in late summer CO2 source strength. In wet habitats, grubbing reduced GEP (-40%) more than ER (-30%), weakening their CO2 sink strength by 70%. One-year CO2-flux responses were similar to two-year responses, and the effect of simulated grubbing was consistent with that of natural grubbing. CO2-flux rates were positively related to aboveground net primary productivity and temperature. Net ecosystem CO2 uptake started occurring above similar to 70% soil moisture content, primarily due to a decline in ER. Herein, we reveal that key environmental-change drivers-goose grubbing by decreasing GEP more than ER and warming by enhancing ER more than GEP-consistently suppress net tundra CO2 uptake, although their relative strength differs among habitats. By identifying how and where grubbing and higher temperatures alter CO2 fluxes across the heterogeneous Arctic landscape, our results have implications for predicting the tundra carbon balance under increasing numbers of geese in a warmer Arctic.

Arctic extreme winter warming events (WW events) have increased in frequency with climate change. WW events have been linked to damaged tundra vegetation (Arctic browning), but the mechanisms that link episodic winter thaw to plant damage in summer are not fully understood. We suggest that one mechanism is microbial N immobilization during the WW event, which leads to a smaller release of winter-mineralized N in spring and therefore more N limitation for vegetation in summer. We tested this hypothesis in a Western Greenlandic Low arctic tundra, where we experimentally simulated a 6 day field-scale extreme WW event and 1) used stable isotopes to trace the movement of N as a consequence of the WW event, 2) measured the effect of a WW event on spring N release in top soils in the laboratory, and 3) measured the carry-over effect on summer aboveground vegetation C/N ratio in tundra subject to a WW event. Our results show that soil mineral N released by a WW event followed by soil thaw is taken up by microbes and stored in the soil, whereas vascular plants acquired almost none, and significant amounts were lost to leaching and gaseous emissions. As soils thawed in spring, we saw weak but not significant evidence (P = 0.067) for a larger N release over the first month of spring thaw in Control soils compared to WW event soils, although not significantly. A weak signal (P = 0.07) linked WW event treatment to higher summer C/N ratios in evergreen shrubs, whereas deciduous shrubs were not affected. We conclude that our results did not show significant evidence for WW events causing Arctic browning via N immobilization and summer N limitation, but that we had indications (P < 0.1) which merits further testing of the theory in various tundra types and with repeated WW events. Evergreen shrubs could be especially sensitive to winter N immobilization, with implications for future vegetation community composition and tundra C storage.

Litter decomposition represents a major path for atmospheric carbon influx into Arctic soils, thereby controlling below-ground carbon accumulation. Yet, little is known about how tundra litter decomposition varies with microenvironmental conditions, hindering accurate projections of tundra soil carbon dynamics with future climate change. Over 14 months, we measured landscape-scale decomposition of two contrasting standard litter types (Green tea and Rooibos tea) in 90 plots covering gradients of micro-climate and -topography, vegetation cover and traits, and soil characteristics in Western Greenland. We used the tea bag index (TBI) protocol to estimate relative variation in litter mass loss, decomposition rate (k) and stabilisation factor (S) across space, and structural equation modelling (SEM) to identify relationships among environmental factors and decomposition. Contrasting our expectations, microenvironmental factors explained little of the observed variation in both litter mass loss, as well as k and S, suggesting that the variables included in our study were not the major controls of decomposer activity in the soil across the studied tundra landscape. We use these unexpected findings of our study combined with findings from the current literature to discuss future avenues for improving our understanding of the drivers of tundra decomposition and, ultimately, carbon cycling across the warming Arctic.

Our understanding of tundra fire effects in Northern Alaska is limited because fires have been relatively rare. We sampled a 70+ year -old burn visible in a 1948 aerial photograph for vegetation composition and structure, soil attributes, terrain rugosity, and thermokarst pit density. Between 1948 and 2017 the burn initially became wetter as ice wedges melted but then drained and dried as the troughs became hydrologically connected. The reference tundra has become wetter over the last few decades and appears to be lagging through a similar sequence. The burn averaged 2.5 degrees C warmer than the reference tundra at 30 cm depth. Thinning of organic soil following fire appears to dramatically accelerate the background degradation of ground-ice features in response to climate change and promotes a plant community that is distinct in terms of taxa and structure, dominated by tall willows and other competitive, rather than cold-tolerant, species. The cover of sedges and mosses is low while that of willows and grass is high relative to the reference tundra. The changes in plant community composition and structure, increasing ground temperature, and thermokarst lead us to expect the observed biophysical changes to the tundra will persist centuries into the future.

Significant progress in permafrost carbon science made over the past decades include the identification of vast permafrost carbon stocks, the development of new pan-Arctic permafrost maps, an increase in terrestrial measurement sites for CO2 and methane fluxes, and important factors affecting carbon cycling, including vegetation changes, periods of soil freezing and thawing, wildfire, and other disturbance events. Process-based modeling studies now include key elements of permafrost carbon cycling and advances in statistical modeling and inverse modeling enhance understanding of permafrost region C budgets. By combining existing data syntheses and model outputs, the permafrost region is likely a wetland methane source and small terrestrial ecosystem CO2 sink with lower net CO2 uptake toward higher latitudes, excluding wildfire emissions. For 2002-2014, the strongest CO2 sink was located in western Canada (median: -52 g C m-2 y-1) and smallest sinks in Alaska, Canadian tundra, and Siberian tundra (medians: -5 to -9 g C m-2 y-1). Eurasian regions had the largest median wetland methane fluxes (16-18 g CH4 m-2 y-1). Quantifying the regional scale carbon balance remains challenging because of high spatial and temporal variability and relatively low density of observations. More accurate permafrost region carbon fluxes require: (a) the development of better maps characterizing wetlands and dynamics of vegetation and disturbances, including abrupt permafrost thaw; (b) the establishment of new year-round CO2 and methane flux sites in underrepresented areas; and (c) improved models that better represent important permafrost carbon cycle dynamics, including non-growing season emissions and disturbance effects. Climate change and the consequent thawing of permafrost threatens to transform the permafrost region from a carbon sink into a carbon source, posing a challenge to global climate goals. Numerous studies over the past decades have identified important factors affecting carbon cycling, including vegetation changes, periods of soil freezing and thawing, wildfire, and other disturbance events. Overall, studies show high wetland methane emissions and a small net carbon dioxide sink strength over the terrestrial permafrost region but results differ among modeling and upscaling approaches. Continued and coordinated efforts among field, modeling, and remote sensing communities are needed to integrate new knowledge from observations to modeling and predictions and finally to policy. Rapid warming of northern permafrost region threatens ecosystems, soil carbon stocks, and global climate targets Long-term observations show importance of disturbance and cold season periods but are unable to detect spatiotemporal trends in C flux Combined modeling and syntheses show the permafrost region is a small terrestrial CO2 sink with large spatial variability and net CH4 source

Climate change poses a serious threat to permafrost integrity, with expected warmer winters and increased precipitation, both raising permafrost temperatures and active layer thickness. Under ice-rich conditions, this can lead to increased thermokarst activity and a consequential transfer of soil organic matter to tundra ponds. Although these ponds are known as hotspots for CO2 and CH4 emissions, the dominant carbon sources for the production of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are still poorly studied, leading to uncertainty about their positive feedback to climate warming. This study investigates the potential for lateral thermo-erosion to cause increased GHG emissions from small and shallow tundra ponds found in Arctic ice-wedge polygonal landscapes. Detailed mapping of fine-scale erosive features revealed their strong impact on pond limnological characteristics. In addition to increasing organic matter inputs, providing carbon to heterotrophic microorganisms responsible for GHG production, thermokarst soil erosion also increases shore instability and water turbidity, limiting the establishment of aquatic vegetation-conditions that greatly increase GHG emissions from these aquatic systems. Ponds with more than 40% of the shoreline affected by lateral erosion experienced significantly higher rates of GHG emissions (similar to 1200 mmol CO2 m-2 yr-1 and similar to 250 mmol CH4 m-2 yr-1) compared to ponds with no active shore erosion (similar to 30 mmol m-2 yr-1 for both GHG). Although most GHGs emitted as CO2 and CH4 had a modern radiocarbon signature, source apportionment models implied an increased importance of terrestrial carbon being emitted from ponds with erosive shorelines. If primary producers are unable to overcome the limitations associated with permafrost disturbances, this contribution of older carbon stocks may become more significant with rising permafrost temperatures.

Tundra is one of the most sensitive environments of the world in relation to climate changes, since its ecosystems exist close to the limits of plant community tolerance. Besides, tundra vegetation in most of Arctic regions resides on permafrost, which is thermally unstable media. Thus, vegetation and frozen soils are extremely vulnerable to external impacts and are balancing in fragile thermodynamic equilibrium. Thermal and moisture regime shifting lead to changing of thermophysical properties of vegetation cover and thus, the thermal balance of underlying permafrost. In this study we present the results of 2001-2024 in-situ monitoring of vegetation cover and permafrost conditions in remote region of the Chukchi Peninsula, Russian Northeast. The study combines the yearly data on active layer thickness and vegetation cover from two sites of Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) program located within the key site of Eastern Chukotka Coastal Plains (ECCP). The study reveals long-term trajectories of climate, permafrost, and vegetation cover characteristics. Although common biological productivity was growing and active layer was thickening, the particular plant species respond to these changes differently. On sloping plots, the increasing of active layer thickness (ALT) led to correspondent lowering of the permafrost table, drainage of thawing ice and thus, soil drying, which caused the decrease in moss and sedge covers. Meanwhile, within flat poorly-drained surfaces the permafrost thawing contributes to soil moisture with correspondent sedge expansion. Thermokarst-affected terrain triggers the growth of tundra vegetation bioproductivity and serves as a shelter for plants from Arctic winds and facilitates higher snow accumulation.