Climate change poses a serious threat to permafrost integrity, with expected warmer winters and increased precipitation, both raising permafrost temperatures and active layer thickness. Under ice-rich conditions, this can lead to increased thermokarst activity and a consequential transfer of soil organic matter to tundra ponds. Although these ponds are known as hotspots for CO2 and CH4 emissions, the dominant carbon sources for the production of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are still poorly studied, leading to uncertainty about their positive feedback to climate warming. This study investigates the potential for lateral thermo-erosion to cause increased GHG emissions from small and shallow tundra ponds found in Arctic ice-wedge polygonal landscapes. Detailed mapping of fine-scale erosive features revealed their strong impact on pond limnological characteristics. In addition to increasing organic matter inputs, providing carbon to heterotrophic microorganisms responsible for GHG production, thermokarst soil erosion also increases shore instability and water turbidity, limiting the establishment of aquatic vegetation-conditions that greatly increase GHG emissions from these aquatic systems. Ponds with more than 40% of the shoreline affected by lateral erosion experienced significantly higher rates of GHG emissions (similar to 1200 mmol CO2 m-2 yr-1 and similar to 250 mmol CH4 m-2 yr-1) compared to ponds with no active shore erosion (similar to 30 mmol m-2 yr-1 for both GHG). Although most GHGs emitted as CO2 and CH4 had a modern radiocarbon signature, source apportionment models implied an increased importance of terrestrial carbon being emitted from ponds with erosive shorelines. If primary producers are unable to overcome the limitations associated with permafrost disturbances, this contribution of older carbon stocks may become more significant with rising permafrost temperatures.

Long-term fine-scale dynamics of surface hydrology in Arctic tundra ponds (less than 1ha) are largely unknown; however, these small water bodies may contribute substantially to carbon fluxes, energy balance, and biodiversity in the Arctic system. Change in pond area and abundance across the upper Barrow Peninsula, Alaska, was assessed by comparing historic aerial imagery (1948) and modern submeter resolution satellite imagery (2002, 2008, and 2010). This was complemented by photogrammetric analysis of low-altitude kite-borne imagery in combination with field observations (2010-2013) of pond water and thaw depth transects in seven ponds of the International Biological Program historic research site. Over 2800 ponds in 22 drained thaw lake basins (DTLB) with different geological ages were analyzed. We observed a net decrease of 30.3% in area and 17.1% in number of ponds over the 62year period. The inclusion of field observations of pond areas in 1972 from a historic research site confirms the linear downward trend in area. Pond area and number were dependent on the age of DTLB; however, changes through time were independent of DTLB age, with potential long-term implications for the hypothesized geomorphologic landscape succession of the thaw lake cycle. These losses were coincident with increases in air temperature, active layer, and density and cover of aquatic emergent plants in ponds. Increased evaporation due to warmer and longer summers, permafrost degradation, and transpiration from encroaching aquatic emergent macrophytes are likely the factors contributing to the decline in surface area and number of ponds.