This paper discusses the potential response of fluvial processes and landforms to the projected permafrost degradation and related hydrological change. Fluvial system structure is presented in the first of the paper along with permafrost controls over its functioning, which vary across fluvial system compartments. The distinction is drawn between primarily fluvial landforms that are expected to adjust to future hydrology with less permafrost constraints, and primarily cryogenic landforms evolving in line with permafrost disturbances. The influence of permafrost on fluvial action varies across compartments: on hillslopes, permafrost mostly controls the occurrence of surface runoff, in river valleys and channels, sediment erodibility, while thermal interaction is essential for growing thermo-erosional gullies. Observed and projected changes in permafrost and hydrology are outlined, and their relevance for cryo-fluvial evolution of fluvial systems is reviewed. Based on these projections, future changes in fluvial action in each compartment are discussed. On hillslopes, where permafrost exerts important controls on hillslope hydrology, fluvial activity of overland flow is expected to decrease following the active layer deepening and decreased overland flow duration. In erosional networks, controlled by thermal interaction between runoff and permafrost terrain, higher water temperature is expected to increase the occurrence and rates of thermo-erosional gully development. In river valleys and channels, where permafrost controls the erodibility of bed and bank material, the expected fluvial feedbacks vary across scales and stream orders, and include changes in seasonality of channel deformations, increased retreat rates in lower river banks and decreased, in higher banks, along with floodplain subsidence, and minor potential for complete destabilization of existing channel patterns. Future collateral effects of fluvial change include alterations of terrestrial biogeochemical cycles and societal impact that must be accounted for in climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Arctic slope hydrology studies suggest that water follows preferential subsurface flow paths known as water tracks. While subsurface flow is usually expected to transport only dissolved solids, periglacial studies have indicated some evidence of lessivage associated with flow through sorted patterned ground. We investigated the transport of dissolved and suspended sediments in water tracks on a polar desert slope, and linked this transport to slope and flow path geomorphology. Solute transfer was dominated by carbonate weathering products, and concentrations of other ions increased disproportionately when the active layer thawed. Suspended sediment transport occurred in water tracks, but fluxes were supply-limited, indicating competent subsurface mechanical erosion. Solute mass fluxes were 5-10 times greater than sediment fluxes. In this dry landscape dominated by snowmelt, surface seepage leads to sediment deposition, while subsurface flow promotes lessivage. A conceptual model of nivation slopes is presented, taking into consideration the influence of flow path morphology and adaptation of the hydrological system to localized water sources from wind-drifted snowbanks. Climate-driven permafrost degradation and the increased frequency of rainfall events may result in new sediment sources and changes in flow pathways, modifying the physico-chemical properties and ecology of downstream receiving waters.

Upland permafrost regions occupy approximately one third of the Arctic landscape. In upland regions, hydrologic fluxes are influenced by water tracks, curvilinear features on hillslopes that preferentially fill with and route water in response to snowmelt and rainfall when the soil above continuous permafrost thaws in the summer. As continued warming of the Arctic may alter hydrologic cycling leading to increased frequency of extreme hydrologic events like drought and flooding as well as modification of biogeochemical cycling, it is imperative to untangle the interplay between precipitation, runoff, and subsurface flow as water is routed from upland Arctic regions to the Arctic Ocean. This study quantifies how ground surface temperatures affect groundwater discharge from hillslopes with water tracks in the upland Arctic by employing a three-dimensional, physically based subsurface flow model with variable saturation and freeze and thaw capabilities that is calibrated to field measurements from the Upper Kuparuk River watershed on the North Slope of Alaska, USA. Model analysis indicates that higher ground surface temperatures along water track hillslopes promote increases in groundwater discharge where water tracks act as conduits for large-recharge events and continue to discharge groundwater into the autumn after the adjacent hillslope has frozen. Simulating the conditions that distinguish water tracks from their hillslope watersheds changes subsurface water storage and ground thermal responses but does not alter the total magnitude of groundwater discharge outside of parameter uncertainty. These findings suggest that water tracks play a complex and critical role in hydrologic cycles of the upland Arctic.