Accurate soil thermal conductivity (STC) data and their spatiotemporal variability are critical for the accurate simulation of future changes in Arctic permafrost. However, in-situ measured STC data remain scarce in the Arctic permafrost region, and the STC parameterization schemes commonly used in current land surface process models (LSMs) fail to meet the actual needs of accurate simulation of hydrothermal processes in permafrost, leading to considerable errors in the simulation results of Arctic permafrost. This study used the XGBoost method to simulate the spatial-temporal variability of the STC in the upper 5 cm active layer of Arctic permafrost during thawing and freezing periods from 1980 to 2020. The findings indicated STC variations between the thawing and freezing periods across different years, with values ranging from-0.4 to 0.28 W & sdot;m-1 & sdot;K-1. The mean STC during the freezing period was higher than that during the thawing period. Tundra, forest, and barren land exhibited the greatest sensitivity of STC to freeze-thaw transitions. This is the first study to explore the long-term spatiotemporal variations of STC in Arctic permafrost, and these findings and datasets can provide useful support for future research on Arctic permafrost evolution simulations.

Thawing permafrost alters climate not only through carbon emissions but also via energy-water feedback and atmospheric teleconnections. This review focuses on the Tibetan Plateau, where strong freeze-thaw cycles, intense radiation, and complex snow-vegetation interactions constitute non-carbon climate responses. We synthesize recent evidence that links freeze-thaw cycles, ground heat flux dynamics, and soil moisture hysteresis to latent heat feedback, monsoon modulation, and planetary wave anomalies. Across these pathways, both observational and simulation studies reveal consistent signals of feedback amplification and nonlinear threshold behavior. However, most Earth system models underrepresent these processes due to simplifications in freezethaw processes, snow-soil-vegetation coupling, and cross-seasonal memory effects. We conclude by identifying priority processes to better simulate multi-scale cryosphere-climate feedback, especially under continued climate warming in high-altitude regions.

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and the circum-Arctic region, as the main distribution areas of high-altitude and high-latitude permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere, significantly influence regional climate, ecological, and hydrological systems through land-atmosphere energy and water exchange processes. This study analyzed the characteristic in the surface energy budget and regional differences in this parameter between the permafrost regions of the QTP (Tanggula site) and circum-Arctic (Tussock site) using meteorological observations and eddy covariance data. Additionally, potential causes of these differences were explored. The results showed seasonal variations and regional disparities in surface energy budgets between the two permafrost regions. At the Tanggula site, the sensible heat flux (H) dominated energy exchange during the cold seasons, while the latent heat flux (LE) dominated during monsoon periods. In contrast, at the Tussock site, H dominated year-round, including negative H during the cold seasons, with year-round suppression of LE. Meanwhile, at Tanggula, diurnal variations revealed single-peak patterns across different freeze-thaw stages, with H and LE responding significantly to changes in the net radiation flux (Rn). The Tussock site displayed a single-peak trend during thawing periods but experienced negative Rn during freezing periods, indicating that the surface energy budget is strongly impacted by freeze-thaw cycles. This study provides a basis for assessing climatic, ecological, hydrological, and engineering effects induced by rapid changes in permafrost.

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and the Arctic are prime examples of permafrost distribution in high-altitude and high-latitude regions. A nuanced understanding of soil thermal conductivity (STC) and the various influencing factors is essential for improving the accuracy of permafrost simulation models in these areas. Nevertheless, no comparative analysis of STC between these two regions has been conducted. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the characteristics and influencing factors of STC at varying depths within the active layer (5 to 60 cm) during freezing and thawing periods in the QTP and the Arctic, using the regional-scale STC data products simulated through the XGBoost method. The findings indicate the following: (1) the mean STC of permafrost in the QTP is higher than that in the Arctic permafrost region. The STC in the QTP demonstrates a declining trend over time, while the Arctic permafrost maintains relative stability. The mean STC values in the QTP permafrost region during the thawing period are significantly higher than those during the freezing period. (2) STC of the QTP exhibits a fluctuating pattern at different depths, in contrast, the average STC value in the Arctic increases steadily with depth, with an increase rate of approximately 0.005 Wm-1 K-1/cm. (3) The analysis of influencing factors revealed that although moisture content, bulk density, and porosity are the primary drivers of regional variations in STC between the QTP and the Arctic permafrost, moisture elements in the QTP region have a greater influence on STC and the effect is stronger with increasing depth and during the freeze-thaw cycles. Conversely, soil saturation, bulk density, and porosity in the Arctic have significant impacts. This study constitutes the first systematic comparative analysis of STC characteristics.

Southern boundary areas of high-latitude permafrost regions may represent the future permafrost temperature regimes; therefore, understanding the carbon stocks and their stability in these systems can shed light on the permafrost carbon cycle under a warming climate. In this study, we sampled soils at three sites representing three differing land covers (forest swamp, dry forest, and shrub swamp) located in the southern boundary area of a high-latitude permafrost region and investigated their carbon fractions and the relationships of these fractions with soil physicochemical parameters in the active and permafrost layers. The results show that the proportion of active carbon is higher in permafrost than in the active layer under forest swamp and dry forest, implying that carbon pools in the permafrost are more decomposable. However, in shrub swamp, the active carbon components in the permafrost layer are lower than in the active layer. Soil pH and water content are the most significant factors associated with soil organic carbon concentration both in the active layers and in the permafrost layers. Our results suggest that, although soil organic carbon concentrations largely decrease with depth, the proportion of the forest swamp, dry forest labile carbon is higher in the permafrost layer than in the active layer and that the vertical distribution of labile carbon proportions is related to land covers.

Background and AimsMicroorganisms are essential for carbon and nitrogen cycling in the active layer of permafrost regions, but the distribution and controlling factors of microbial functional genes across different land cover types and soil depths remain poorly understood. This gap hinders accurate predictions of carbon and nitrogen cycling dynamics under climate change. This study aims to explore how land cover type and soil depth influence microbial functional gene distribution in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau's permafrost regions.MethodsSoil samples (0-50 cm) were collected from alpine wet meadows, alpine meadows, and alpine steppes. We analyzed the samples for physicochemical properties, microbial amplicon sequencing, and metagenomic sequencing. Correlation analyses were conducted between microbial community structure, functional genes, and environmental factors to identify the drivers of microbial carbon and nitrogen cycling.ResultsBacterial richness was 6.03% lower in steppe soils compared to wet meadow soils. Steppe soils exhibited the highest aerobic respiration potential, while deeper wet meadow soils had enhanced anaerobic carbon fixation potential and a higher abundance of carbon decomposition-related genes. Nitrogen assimilation was highest in steppe surface soils, whereas denitrification and ammonification were greatest in wet meadow soils. Carbon cycling potential was influenced by total soil carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and belowground biomass, while nitrogen cycling was driven by belowground biomass, soil moisture, and pH.ConclusionOur findings underscore the role of environmental factors in microbial functional gene distribution, providing new insights for modeling carbon and nitrogen cycling in alpine permafrost ecosystems under climate change.

In permafrost regions, vegetation growth is influenced by both climate conditions and the effects of permafrost degradation. Climate factors affect multiple aspects of the environment, while permafrost degradation has a significant impact on soil moisture and nutrient availability, both of which are crucial for ecosystem health and vegetation growth. However, the quantitative analysis of climate and permafrost remains largely unknown, hindering our ability to predict future vegetation changes in permafrost regions. Here, we used statistical methods to analyze the NDVI change in the permafrost region from 1982 to 2022. We employed correlation analysis, multiple regression residual analysis and partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) methods to examine the impacts of different environmental factors on NDVI changes. The results show that the average NDVI in the study area from 1982 to 2022 is 0.39, with NDVI values in 80% of the area remaining stable or exhibiting an increasing trend. NDVI had the highest correlation with air temperature, averaging 0.32, with active layer thickness coming in second at 0.25. Climate change plays a dominant role in NDVI variations, with a relative contribution rate of 89.6%. The changes in NDVI are positively influenced by air temperature, with correlation coefficients of 0.92. Although the active layer thickness accounted for only 7% of the NDVI changes, its influence demonstrated an increasing trend from 1982 to 2022. Overall, our results suggest that temperature is the primary factor influencing NDVI variations in this region.

Siberia occupies vast areas underlain by permafrost, and understanding its land cover changes is important for ecological environmental protection in a warming climate. Based on the land cover and climate datasets, we analyzed the land cover changes and their drivers in Siberia from 1992 to 2020. The results show that (1) From 1992 to 2020, the areas of evergreen needleleaf trees and deciduous needleleaf trees in Siberia decreased by 9% and 2.5%, and the areas of grassland, shrub, cropland, and construction land increased by 1.5%, 14.2%, 2.8%, and 39.2%, respectively. Cropland expansion had the fastest rate of 1.85% in the continuous permafrost zone, and construction land expansion had the fastest rate of 3.07% in the non-permafrost zone. (2) The center of gravity of agricultural land continues to migrate to the northeast, and the center of gravity of construction land continues to migrate to the southwest. (3) The primary drivers for the land cover changes were temperature and precipitation, and active layer thickness also affected grassland, cropland, and deciduous needleleaf trees. The correlation coefficient between active layer thickness and cropland area is 0.74 in the continuous permafrost zone. The interaction between factors is mostly manifested as a two-factor enhancement, with the highest q-value of the interaction of temperature and precipitation for explanatory power. Our results suggest that climate change and permafrost degradation significantly changed land cover in Siberia. This finding deepens our understanding of the mechanisms of land cover change under the influence of permafrost degradation and provides a new perspective on the land cover changes in permafrost regions.

Permafrost carbon could produce a positive climate feedback. Until now, the ecosystem carbon budgets in the permafrost regions remain uncertain. Moreover, the frequently used models have some limitations especially regarding to the freeze-thaw process. Herein, we improved the IBIS model by incorporating an unfrozen water scheme and by specifying the parameters to estimate the present and future carbon budget of different land cover types (desert steppe, steppe, meadow, and wet meadow) in the permafrost regions. Incorporating an unfrozen water scheme reduced the mean errors in the soil temperature and soil water content by 25.2%, and the specifying leaf area parameters reduced the errors in the net primary productivity (NPP) by 79.9%. Further, the simulation results showed that steppes are carbon sources (39.16 gC/m(2)/a) and the meadows are carbon sinks (-63.42 gC/m(2)/a ). Under the climate warming scenarios of RCP 2.6, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5, the desert steppe and alpine steppe would assimilated more carbon, while the meadow and wet meadow were projected to shift from carbon sinks to carbon sources in 2071-2100, implying that the land cover type plays an important role in simulating the source/sink effects of permafrost ecosystem carbon in the IBIS model. The results highlight the importance of unfrozen water to the soil hydrothermal regime and specific leaf area for the growth of alpine vegetation, and present new insights on the difference of the responses of various permafrost ecosystems to climate warming.

Permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere has been degrading under climate change, affecting climatic, hydrological, and ecological systems. To reveal the temporal and spatial characteristics of permafrost degradation under climate change, we quantified permafrost thermal states and active layer thicknesses using observational data covering various periods and different areas of the Northern Hemisphere. The soil temperatures at 20 cm depth in the circumpolar Arctic permafrost regions were much lower than in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The thaw period is 114 days in the circumpolar permafrost regions compared to 167 days in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The active layer thickness (ALT) was largest in transitional permafrost regions and sporadic permafrost regions, and lowest in the high latitude permafrost regions and continuous permafrost regions, and the ALT generally exhibited an increasing trend. The average ALT was 1.7 m, and increased by 3.6 cm per year in the Northern Hemisphere. The mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) was largest in the high-altitude permafrost regions and isolated permafrost regions, and lowest in the high latitude permafrost regions and continuous permafrost regions. The warming rate of the MAGT was largest in the high latitude regions and lowest in the high altitude regions, and gradually increased from isolated permafrost regions to continuous permafrost regions, with an average warming rate of 0.3 degrees C per decade for the whole Northern Hemisphere. These findings provide important information for understanding the variability in permafrost degradation processes across different regions under climate change.