Numerous endorheic lakes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) have shown a dramatic increase in total area since 1996. These expanding lakes are mainly located in the interior regions of the QTP, where permafrost is widely distributed. Despite significant permafrost degradation due to global warming, the impact of permafrost thawing on lake evolution in QTP has been underexplored. This study investigated the permafrost degradation and its correlation with lake area increase by selecting four lake basins (Selin Co, Nam Co, Zhari Namco, and Dangqiong Co) in QTP for analysis. Fluid-heat-ice coupled numerical models were conducted on the aquifer cross-sections in these four lake basins, to simulate permafrost thawing driven by rising surface temperatures, and calculate the subsequent changes in groundwater discharge into the lakes. The contribution of these changes to lake storage, which is proportional to lake area, was investigated. Numerical simulation indicates that from 1982 to 2011, permafrost degradation remained consistent across the four basins. During this period, the active layer thickness first increased, then decreased, and partially transformed into talik, with depths reaching up to 25 m. By 2011, groundwater discharge had significantly risen, exceeding 2.9 times the initial discharge in 1988 across all basins. This increased discharge now constitutes up to 17.67 % of the total lake water inflow (Selin Co). The dynamic lake water budget further suggests that groundwater contributed significantly to lake area expansion, particularly since 2000. These findings highlight the importance of considering permafrost thawing as a crucial factor in understanding the dynamics of lake systems in the QTP in the context of climate change.

Seasonally frozen ground (SFG) is a significant component of the cryosphere, and its extent is gradually increasing due to climate change. The hydrological influence of SFG is complex and varies under different climatic and physiographic conditions. The summer rainfall dominant climate pattern in Qinghai Lake Basin (QLB) leads to a significantly different seasonal freeze-thaw process and groundwater flow compared to regions with winter snowfall dominated precipitation. The seasonal hydrological processes in QLB are not fully understood due to the lack of soil temperature and groundwater observation data. A coupled surface and subsurface thermal hydrology model was applied to simulate the freeze-thaw process of SFG and groundwater flow in the QLB. The results indicate that SFG begins to freeze in early November, reaches a maximum freezing depth of approximately 2 meters in late March, and thaws completely by June. This freeze-thaw process is primarily governed by the daily air temperature variations. During the early rainy season from April to June, the remaining SFG in deep soil hinders the majority of rainwater infiltration, resulting in a two-month delay in the peak of groundwater discharge compared to scenario with no SFG present. Colder conditions intensify this effect, delaying peak discharge by 3 months, whereas warmer conditions reduce the lag to 1 month. The ice saturation distribution along the hillslope is affected by topography, with a 10 cm deeper ice saturation distribution and 3 days delay of groundwater discharge in the steep case compared to the flat case. These findings highlight the importance of the freeze-thaw process of SFG on hydrological processes in regions dominated by summer rainfall, providing valuable insights into the hydro-ecological response. Enhanced understanding of these dynamics may improve water resource management strategies and support future research into climate-hydrology interactions in SFG-dominated landscapes.

This study reviews the available and published knowledge of the interactions between permafrost and groundwater. In its content, the paper focuses mainly on groundwater recharge and discharge in the Arctic and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The study revealed that the geochemical composition of groundwater is site-specific and varies significantly within the depth of the aquifers reflecting the water-rock interactions and related geological history. All reviewed studies clearly indicated that the permafrost thaw causes an increase in groundwater discharge on land. Furthermore, progressing climate warming is likely to accelerate permafrost degradation and thus enhance hydrological connectivity due to increased subpermafrost groundwater flow through talik channels and higher suprapermafrost groundwater flow. In the case of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD), permafrost thaw can either reinforce or reduce SGD, depending on how much pressure changes affecting the aquifers will be caused by the loss of permafrost. Finally, this comprehensive assessment allowed also for identifying the lack of long-term and interdisciplinary in situ measurements that could be used in sophisticated computational simulations characterizing the current status and predicting groundwater flow and permafrost dynamics in the future warmer climate.

Permafrost thaw due to climate warming modifies hydrological processes by increasing hydrological connectivity between aquifers and surface water bodies and increasing groundwater storage. While previous studies have documented arctic river baseflow increases and changing wetland and lake distributions, the hydrogeological processes leading to these changes remain poorly understood. This study uses a coupled heat and groundwater flow numerical model with dynamic freezing and thawing processes and an improved set of boundary conditions to simulate the impacts of climate warming on permafrost distribution and groundwater discharge to surface water bodies. We show a spatial shift in groundwater discharge from upslope to downslope and a temporal shift with increasing groundwater discharge during the winter season due to the formation of a lateral supra-permafrost talik underlying the active layer. These insights into changing patterns of groundwater discharge help explain observed changes in arctic baseflow and wetland patterns and are important for northern water resources and ecosystem management.