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Lakes are commonly accepted as a sensitive indicator of regional climate change, including the Tibetan Plateau (TP). This study took the Ranwu Lake, located in the southeastern TP, as the research object to investigate the relationship between the lake and regional hydroclimatological regimes. The well-known Budyko framework was utilized to explore the relationship and its causes. The results showed air temperature, evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration in the Ranwu Lake Basin generally increased, while precipitation, soil moisture, and glacier area decreased. The Budyko space indicated that the basin experienced an obviously drying phase first, and then a slightly wetting phase. An overall increase in lake area appears inconsistent with the drying phase of the basin climate. The inconsistency is attributable to the significant expansion of proglacial lakes due to glacial melting, possibly driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Our findings should be helpful for understanding the complicated relationships between lakes and climate, and beneficial to water resources management under changing climates, especially in glacier basins.

期刊论文 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132685 ISSN: 0022-1694

Glaciers playa vital role in providing water resources for drinking, agriculture, and hydro-electricity in many mountainous regions. As global warming progresses, accurately reconstructing long-term glacier mass changes and comprehending their intricate dynamic relationships with environmental variables are imperative for sustaining livelihoods in these regions. This paper presents the use of eXplainable Machine Learning (XML) models with GRACE and GRACE-FO data to reconstruct long-term monthly glacier mass changes in the Upper Yukon Watershed (UYW), Canada. We utilized the H2O-AutoML regression tools to identify the best performing Machine Learning (ML) model for filling missing data and predicting glacier mass changes from hydroclimatic data. The most accurate predictive model in this study, the Gradient Boosting Machine, coupled with explanatory methods based on SHapley Additive eXplanation (SHAP) and Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) analyses, led to automated XML models. The XML unveiled and ranked key predictors of glacier mass changes in the UYW, indicating a decrease since 2014. Analysis showed decreases in snow water equivalent, soil moisture storage, and albedo, along with increases in rainfall flux and air temperature were the main drivers of glacier mass loss. A probabilistic analysis hinging on these drivers suggested that the influence of the key hydrological features is more critical than the key meteorological features. Examination of climatic oscillations showed that high positive anomalies in sea surface temperature are correlated with rapid depletion in glacier mass and soil moisture, as identified by XML. Integrating H2OAutoML with SHAP and LIME not only achieved high prediction accuracy but also enhanced the explainability of the underlying hydroclimatic processes of glacier mass change reconstruction from GRACE and GRACE-FO data in the UYW. This automated XML framework is applicable globally, contingent upon sufficient high-quality data for model training and validation.

期刊论文 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132519 ISSN: 0022-1694

A cast-in-place pile foundation, widely utilized in the permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, boasts superior load-bearing capacity, effectively mitigating the seasonal freeze-thaw effects. In permafrost regions, substantial pile foundation load-bearing capacity is provided by freezing strength, with the freezing strength determined by the temperature of the surrounding permafrost. In modern times, global warming has been causing permafrost degradation, posing a risk to the safety of existing pile foundations. In order to maintain the stability of these foundations, it is crucial to release excess ground heat, considering the temperature-dependent freezing strength of the ground to pile shaft. Two-phase closed thermosyphons (TPCTs) have demonstrated strong performance in the realm of cooling permafrost engineering. In this study, TPCTs were utilized to mitigate the impact of permafrost degradation by installing them around a concrete pile in order to cool the foundation ground. Following this installation, a model experiment was carried out, which ingeniously focused on analyzing the cooling performance, the process of cold energy dissipation, and the cooling scope of the TPCT pile. The study's findings indicate that the operation time of the TPCT pile accounted for about 50% of the entire freeze-thaw cycle. This device could effectively cool the surrounding foundation soil within a specified area. The TPCT pile exhibited a low temperature advantage of 0.36 degrees C in comparison with the scenario without TPCT in terms of surrounding geotemperature, although it experienced significant cold energy dissipation. The conclusions drawn from this study have significant value for maintaining piles in permafrost regions.

期刊论文 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1061/JCRGEI.CRENG-884 ISSN: 0887-381X

Increasing greenhouse gas levels drive extensive changes in Arctic and cold-dominated environments, leading to a warmer, more humid, and variable climate. Associated permafrost thaw creates new groundwater flow paths in cold regions that are causing unprecedented environmental changes. This review of recent advances in groundwater research in cold environments has revealed that a new paradigm is emerging where groundwater is at the center of these changes. Groundwater flow and associated heat and solute transport are now used as a basis to understand hydrological changes, permafrost dynamics, water quality, integrity of infrastructure along with ecological impacts. Although major advances have been achieved in cold regions' cryohydrogeological research, the remaining knowledge gaps are numerous. For example, groundwater as a drinking water source is poorly documented despite its social importance. Lateral transport processes for carbon and contaminants are still inadequately understood. Numerical models are improving, but the highly complex physical-ecological changes occurring in the arctic involve coupled thermal, hydrological, hydrogeological, mechanical, and geochemical processes that are difficult to represent and hamper quantitative analysis and limit predictive capacity. Systematic long-term observatories where measurements involving groundwater are considered central are needed to help resolve these research gaps. Innovative transdisciplinary research will be critical to comprehend and predict these complex transformations.

期刊论文 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1002/ppp.2255 ISSN: 1045-6740

With the global climate change, glaciers on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and its adjacent mountainous regions are retreating rapidly, leading to an increase in active rock glaciers (ARGs) in front of glaciers. As crucial components of water resources in alpine regions and indicators of permafrost boundaries, ARGs reflect climatic and environmental changes on the QTP and its adjacent mountainous regions. However, the extensive scale of rock glacier development poses a challenge to field investigations and sampling, and manual visual interpretation requires substantial effort. Consequently, research on rock glacier cataloging and distribution characteristics across the entire area is scarce. This study statistically analyzed the geometric characteristics of ARGs using high- resolution GF-2 satellite images. It examined their spatial distribution and relationship with local factors. The findings reveal that 34,717 ARGs, covering an area of approximately 6873.54 km2, with an average area of 0.19 +/- 0.24 km2, a maximum of 0.0012 km2, and a minimum of 4.6086 km2, were identified primarily in north-facing areas at elevations of 4300-5300 m and slopes of 9 degrees-25 degrees, predominantly in the Karakoram Mountains and the Himalayas. Notably, the largest concentration of ARGs was found on north-facing shady slopes, constituting about 42 % of the total amount, due to less solar radiation and lower near-surface temperatures favorable for interstitial ice preservation. This research enriches the foundational data on ARG distribution across the QTP and its adjacent mountainous regions, offering significant insights into the response mechanisms of rock glacier evolution to environmental changes and their environmental and engineering impacts.

期刊论文 2024-12-15 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2024.109468 ISSN: 0169-555X

Research in geocryology is currently principally concerned with the effects of climate change on permafrost terrain. The motivations for most of the research are (1) quantification of the anticipated net emissions of CO2 and CH4 from warming and thaw of near-surface permafrost and (2) mitigation of effects on infrastructure of such warming and thaw. Some of the effects, such as increases in ground temperature or active-layer thickness, have been observed for several decades. Landforms that are sensitive to creep deformation are moving more quickly as a result, and Rock Glacier Velocity is now part of the Essential Climate Variable Permafrost of the Global Climate Observing System. Other effects, for example, the occurrence of physical disturbances associated with thawing permafrost, particularly the development of thaw slumps, have noticeably increased since 2010. Still, others, such as erosion of sedimentary permafrost coasts, have accelerated. Geochemical effects in groundwater from trace elements, including contaminants, and those that issue from the release of sediment particles during mass wasting have become evident since 2020. Net release of CO2 and CH4 from thawing permafrost is anticipated within two decades and, worldwide, may reach emissions that are equivalent to a large industrial economy. The most immediate local concerns are for waste disposal pits that were constructed on the premise that permafrost would be an effective and permanent containment medium. This assumption is no longer valid at many contaminated sites. The role of ground ice in conditioning responses to changes in the thermal or hydrological regimes of permafrost has re-emphasized the importance of regional conditions, particularly landscape history, when applying research results to practical problems.

期刊论文 2024-12-10 DOI: 10.1002/ppp.2261 ISSN: 1045-6740

Black carbon (BC) is one of the major aerosol components with relatively high implications on climatic patterns through its radiative forcing (RF). South Asia has recently experienced an increased concentration of pollution; however, relatively fewer studies have been carried out on long-term assessment of BC and its implications. The present study analyzed the long-term concentration of BC in selected urban locations over South Asia using the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). The study employed statistical analysis, including linear regression techniques, to assess the long-term concentration of BC. The results show that a rapid increase of BC is observed over most urban locations of South Asia with the predominance in winter and hence requires strict regional control measures to reduce the excess concentration of BC in the atmosphere. High concentration of BC in winter is attributed to anthropogenic activities and changes in meteorological conditions that enhance the accumulation of pollutants in the atmosphere. The relationship of BC with cloud top temperature and cloud effective radius demonstrates the direct and indirect effect of BC on cloud properties in this region. The RF results reveal that aerosol optical depth has positive aerosol RF in the atmosphere and negative RF at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) as well as at the bottom of the atmosphere (BOA). Negative RF at the TOA indicates less forcing efficiency due to fewer BC aerosols. On the other hand, averaging aerosol RF within the atmosphere reveals positive forcing, which suggests the efficiency force exerted by BC aerosols after absorbing solar radiation.

期刊论文 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1007/s13351-024-4046-5 ISSN: 2095-6037

Aviation emissions contribute to climate change and local air pollution, with important contributions from non-CO2 emissions. These exhibit diverse impacts on atmospheric chemistry and radiative forcing (RF), varying with location, altitude, and time. Assessments of local mitigation strategies with global emission metrics may overlook this variability, but detailed studies of aviation emissions in areas smaller than continents are scarce. Integrating the AviTeam emission model and OsloCTM3, we quantify CO2, NOx, BC, OC, and SOx emissions, tropospheric concentration changes, RF, region-specific metrics, and assess alternative fuels for Norwegian domestic aviation. Mitigation potentials fora fuel switch to LH2 differ by up to 3.1 x 108 kgCO2-equivalents (GWP20) when using region-specific compared to global metrics. These differences result from a lower, region- specific contribution of non-CO2 emissions, particularly related to NOx. This study underscores the importance of accounting for non-CO2 variability in regional assessments, whether through region-specific metrics or advanced atmospheric modelling techniques.

期刊论文 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2024.100301

Light-absorbing organic carbon (i.e., brown carbon, BrC) significantly contributes to light absorption and radiative forcing in the atmospheric particles. However, the secondary formation of BrC and optical properties of secondary BrC are poorly understood. In this study, we analyzed and evaluated the light absorption and environmental effects of BrC and secondary BrC from July 1st to 31st, 2022 (summer) and January 20th to February 20th, 2023 (winter) in Chongqing. BrC and secondary BrC light absorption were estimated via a seven- wavelength aethalometer and the statistical approach. The average values of secondary BrC light absorption (Abs(BrC,sec,lambda)) accounted for 46.2-56.5% of Abs(BrC). Abs(BrC,370) and Abs(BrC,sec,370) were significantly higher during winter (26.2 +/- 13.2 and 9.1 +/- 5.2 Mm(-1) respectively) than that during summer (7.2 +/- 4.1 and 5.2 +/- 3.5 Mm(-1) respectively) (p < 0.001), suggesting secondary formation played an essential role in BrC. A diurnal cycle of Abs(BrC,sec,370) was explained by the photobleaching of light-absorbing chromophores under the oxidizing conditions in the daytime, and the formation of chromophores via aqueous reactions with NH(4)(+ )and NO(x )after sunset during winter. PSCF analysis showed that transport of anthropogenic emissions from the northeastern and southeastern areas of Chongqing was the important source of the secondary BrC in PP during winter. During winter, the average values of SFEBrC and SFEBrC,sec were 31.9 and 27.4 W g(-1) lower than that during summer (64.7 and 44.5 W g(-1)), respectively. In contrast, J[NO2] values of SFEBrC and SFEBrC,sec decreased by 23.3% and 8.7% during winter higher than that during summer (19.9% and 5.6%), indicating that BrC and secondary BrC cause substantial radiative effects and atmospheric photochemistry. Overall, this study is helpful in understanding the characterization and secondary formation of BrC and accurately evaluating the environmental effects of BrC in Chongqing.

期刊论文 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120843 ISSN: 1352-2310

Lakes are known as sentinels of climate change, but their responses may differ from one to another leading to different strategies in lake protection. It is particularly the case in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) of multiple hydrological processes. We employed the Budyko framework to study Tibetan lakes from two lake-basins of contrasting climates for the period between 1980 and 2022: Taro Co Basin (TCB) in a sub-arid climate, and Ranwu Lake Basin (RLB) in a sub-humid climate. Our results showed that total lake area, surface air temperature, evapotranspiration, and potential evapotranspiration increased in both lake-basins, while precipitation and soil moisture increased in the TCB but decreased in the RLB. In the Budyko space, two basins had contrast hydroclimatic trajectories in terms of aridity and evaporative index. The TCB shifted from wetting to drying trend, while the RLB from drying to wetting in early 2000s. Notably, lake change was generally consistent with the drying/wetting phases in the TCB, but in contrast with that in the RLB, which can be attributed to warming- induced glacier melting. Despite of significant correlation with the large-scale atmospheric oscillations, it turned to be more plausible if lake area changes were substituted with basin's hydroclimatic trajectories. Among the large-scale oscillations, El Nino-Southern o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant control of lake trends and their drying/wetting shifts. Our findings offer a valuable insight into lake responses to climate change in the TP and other regions.

期刊论文 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175465 ISSN: 0048-9697
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