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Glaciers playa vital role in providing water resources for drinking, agriculture, and hydro-electricity in many mountainous regions. As global warming progresses, accurately reconstructing long-term glacier mass changes and comprehending their intricate dynamic relationships with environmental variables are imperative for sustaining livelihoods in these regions. This paper presents the use of eXplainable Machine Learning (XML) models with GRACE and GRACE-FO data to reconstruct long-term monthly glacier mass changes in the Upper Yukon Watershed (UYW), Canada. We utilized the H2O-AutoML regression tools to identify the best performing Machine Learning (ML) model for filling missing data and predicting glacier mass changes from hydroclimatic data. The most accurate predictive model in this study, the Gradient Boosting Machine, coupled with explanatory methods based on SHapley Additive eXplanation (SHAP) and Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) analyses, led to automated XML models. The XML unveiled and ranked key predictors of glacier mass changes in the UYW, indicating a decrease since 2014. Analysis showed decreases in snow water equivalent, soil moisture storage, and albedo, along with increases in rainfall flux and air temperature were the main drivers of glacier mass loss. A probabilistic analysis hinging on these drivers suggested that the influence of the key hydrological features is more critical than the key meteorological features. Examination of climatic oscillations showed that high positive anomalies in sea surface temperature are correlated with rapid depletion in glacier mass and soil moisture, as identified by XML. Integrating H2OAutoML with SHAP and LIME not only achieved high prediction accuracy but also enhanced the explainability of the underlying hydroclimatic processes of glacier mass change reconstruction from GRACE and GRACE-FO data in the UYW. This automated XML framework is applicable globally, contingent upon sufficient high-quality data for model training and validation.

期刊论文 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132519 ISSN: 0022-1694

Lumbini isa world heritage site located in the southern plains region of Nepal, and is regarded as a potential site for evaluating transboundary air pollution due to its proximity to the border with India. In this study, 82 aerosol samples were collected between April 2013 and July 2014 to investigate the levels of particulate-bound mercury (PBM) and the corresponding seasonality, sources, and influencing factors. The PBM concentration in total suspended particulate (TSP) matter ranged from 6.8 pg m-3 to 351.7 pg m-3 (mean of 99.7 +/- 92.6 pg m-3), which exceeded the ranges reported for remote and rural sites worldwide. The Hg content (PBM/TSP) ranged from 68.2 ng g-1 to 1744.8 ng g-1 (mean of 446.9 +/- 312.7 ng g-1), indicating anthropogenic enrichment. The PBM levels were higher in the dry season (i.e., winter and the pre-monsoon period) than in the wet season (i.e., the monsoon period). In addition, the d202Hg signature indicated that waste/coal burning and traffic were the major sources of Hg in Lumbini during the pre-monsoon period. Meanwhile, precipitation occurring during photochemical processes in the atmosphere may have been responsible for the observed D199Hg values in the aerosol samples obtained during the monsoon period. The PBM concentration was influenced mostly by the resuspension of polluted dust during dry periods and crop residue burning during the post-monsoon period. The estimated PBM deposition flux at Lumbini was 15.7 lg m-2 yr-1. This study provides a reference dataset of atmospheric PBM over a year, which can be useful for understanding the geochemical cycling of Hg in this region of limited data. (c) 2021 China University of Geosciences (Beijing) and Peking University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

期刊论文 2024-03-01 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2021.101274 ISSN: 1674-9871

The Granger Causality (GC) statistical test explores the causal relationships between different time series variables. By employing the GC method, the underlying causal links between environmental drivers and global vegetation properties can be untangled, which opens possibilities to forecast the increasing strain on ecosystems by droughts, global warming, and climate change. This study aimed to quantify the spatial distribution of four distinct satellite vegetation products' (VPs) sensitivities to four environmental land variables (ELVs) at the global scale given the GC method. The GC analysis assessed the spatially explicit response of the VPs: (i) the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), (ii) the leaf area index (LAI), (iii) solar-induced fluorescence (SIF), and, finally, (iv) the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to the ELVs. These ELVs can be categorized as water availability assessing root zone soil moisture (SM) and accumulated precipitation (P), as well as, energy availability considering the effect of air temperature (T) and solar shortwave (R) radiation. The results indicate SM and P are key drivers, particularly causing changes in the LAI. SM alone accounts for 43%, while P accounts for 41%, of the explicitly caused areas over arid biomes. SM further significantly influences the LAI at northern latitudes, covering 44% of cold and 50% of polar biome areas. These areas exhibit a predominant response to R, which is a possible trigger for snowmelt, showing more than 40% caused by both cold and polar biomes for all VPs. Finally, T's causality is evenly distributed amongst all biomes with fractional covers between similar to 10 and 20%. By using the GC method, the analysis presents a novel way to monitor the planet's ecosystem, based on solely two years as input data, with four VPs acquired by the synergy of Sentinel-3 (S3) and 5P (S5P) satellite data streams. The findings indicated unique, biome-specific responses of vegetation to distinct environmental drivers.

期刊论文 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.3390/rs15204956

1. Factors shaping arthropod and plant community structure at fine spatial scales are poorly understood. This includes microclimate, which likely plays a large role in shaping local community patterns, especially in heterogeneous landscapes characterised by high microclimatic variability in space and in time.2. We explored differences in local microclimatic conditions and regional species pools in two subarctic regions: Kilpisj & auml;rvi in north-west Finland and Varanger in north-east Norway. We then investigated the relationship between fine-scale climatic variation and local community characteristics (species richness and abundance) among plants and arthropods, differentiating the latter into two groups: flying and ground-dwelling arthropods collected by Malaise and pitfall traps, respectively. Arthropod taxa were identified through DNA metabarcoding. Finally, we examined if plant richness can be used to predict patterns in arthropod communities.3. Variation in soil temperature, moisture and snow depth proved similar between regions, despite differences in absolute elevation. For each group of organisms, we found that about half of the species were shared between Kilpisj & auml;rvi and Varanger, with a quarter unique to each region.4. Plants and arthropods responded largely to the same drivers. The richness and abun-dance of both groups decreased as elevation increased and were positively correlated with higher soil moisture and temperature values. Plant species richness was a poor predictor of local arthropod richness, in particular for ground-dwelling arthropods.5. Our results reveal how microclimatic variation within each region carves pro-nounced, yet consistent patterns in local community richness and abundance out of a joint species pool.

期刊论文 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1111/icad.12667 ISSN: 1752-458X

The present investigation outlines the crucial factors that influence the black carbon (BC) concentrations over a polluted metropolis, Kolkata (22.57 & DEG; N, 88.37 & DEG; E), India. Located in the eastern part of the Indo Gangetic Plain (IGP) outflow region and close to the land-ocean boundary, Kolkata is subject to contrasting seasonal maritime airflow from the Bay of Bengal and continental air mass from the IGP and Tibetan plateau region, which modulates the local concentration of BC. The origin of aerosol transport and associated atmospheric dynamics with high and low BC activities over Kolkata are examined during 2012-2015 using data from multi-technique sources which include measurements of ground-based instruments of aethalometer and multi-frequency microwave radiometer, reanalysis data from ERA-5 and MEERA-2, and model outputs from HYPSLIT back trajectory model simulations. The study highlights the control of IGP wind inflow on the occurrence of anomalous enhancements in BC concentration during weekends and holidays when local emissions are low. High BC events are associated with enhanced atmospheric heating below the boundary layer (2000 m) and significant negative surface radiative forcing. The response of the boundary layer to high and low BC episodes, shown in the diurnal variation in comparison with the seasonal mean, is investigated. Dominant suppression of morning and night-time boundary layer height is observed on high BC days. During the daytime in pre-monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter seasons, boundary layer height peaks are found to be strongly controlled by high BC episode occurrences as obtained from the hourly data of ERA-5.

期刊论文 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-022-10865-4 ISSN: 0167-6369

A comprehensive investigation of physical, optical, and chemical characteristics of columnar aerosols over two locations with distinct environmental settings in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) region, namely, Kanpur (urban and industrial area) and Gandhi College (rural area), is conducted using high-quality aerosol datasets obtained from ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) observations during the recent five year period (2015-2019). This study utilizes all the crucial columnar aerosol parameters necessary for accurately estimating aerosol radiative forcing. Quantification of contribution by different aerosol species originating from natural and anthropogenic sources to the total aerosol optical depth (AOD) and single scattering albedo (SSA) is important to understand the specific mechanisms that influence the aerosol composition, thereby reducing the uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing. For the first time, two highly spatially resolved models' (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA-2) and Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)) simulated absorbingspecies-wise (black carbon (BC), dust, and brown carbon (BrC)) AOD, and absorption AOD (AAOD) are compared and contrasted against the AERONET observations over the IGP region in a systematic manner. MERRA-2 AODs are mostly lower, whereas CAMS AODs are consistently higher than the AERONET AODs. A comparison of collocated time and space observations with models clearly suggests that improvements in emission inventories on a seasonal scale are essential. MERRA-2 SSA is noted lower than the AERONET SSA during the winter season due to overestimation in BC AOD. During winter in >70% of MERRA-2 simulated SSA the difference is higher than +/- 0.03 (the uncertainty range of AERONET SSA) whereas during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons >60% of MERRA-2 SSA lies within the uncertainty range of AERONET SSA. Both models show a gradient in AODDust decreasing from west to east in the IGP. However, observations do not often exhibit the gradient in dust, which is validated by air mass back trajectory analyses as air masses travel through different pathways to IGP and reverse the west to east gradient in AODDust. This quantitative and comparative collocated analysis of observed aerosol characteristics with models on a seasonal scale will enable a better estimation of aerosol radiative forcing, and can help improve aerosol processes and parameterizations in models.

期刊论文 2023-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2022.119434 ISSN: 1352-2310

Significant changes in air temperature and precipitation occurred in Slovakia during the second half of the 20th century and mainly in the first two decades of the 21st century. These changes influenced potential and actual evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and runoff in Slovakia. The article discusses changes and variability of evapotranspiration in the period 1951-2021 calculated by Budyko's method, which was modified by Tomlain for Slovakia, and due to climate change, the preparation of the evapotranspiration scenarios until the year 2100. The climatic indicator of irrigation, which shows the water's necessity to cover maximum evapotranspiration demands, was also evaluated from 1951 to 2021. We performed the model computation for 26 higher-quality stations in Slovakia. These stations are located in different climatic, especially humid conditions. The input data are air temperature and humidity, cloudiness, number of days with snow cover, and precipitation. The results of measurements and model calculations are presented in detail from stations Hurbanovo, Kosice-airport, and Oravska Lesna. Changes in the normal of analysed phenomena between the 1951-1980 and 1991-2020 periods are shown in the table form for 20 selected stations because of limited space. The scenarios of potential evapotranspiration change until 2100, prepared by two regional circulation models (RCM) outputs, are presented at the end of the study. The results confirmed the growth of potential evapotranspiration in 1951-2021 and until 2100, while the actual evapotranspiration depends on soil moisture, which is mainly decreasing. The climatic irrigation index indicates the slightly increasing linear trend in Slovakia from 1951 to 2021.

期刊论文 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.31577/congeo.2023.53.3.5 ISSN: 1338-0540

The significant uncertainty associated with black carbon (BC) radiative forcing estimation is mainly due to discrepancies related to its mixing state. The in situ measurement-based understanding of absorption properties is limited to only a few locations worldwide, primarily as a result of the unavailability of sophisticated instrumentations for absorption enhancement (Eabs) measurements resulting from mixing with non-BC chemicals. Therefore, we have proposed an alternative approach for a more robust in situ measurement of absorption enhancement using a thermal-optical carbon analyzer. In the present study, the absorption spectra during different stages of thermal-optical carbon analysis were used to estimate the absorption coefficients of mixed and pure BC aerosols. Moreover, we have also explored the possibility of apportioning light absorption by the BC core and absorbing organics (brown carbon). The present method was applied on a few ground-based aerosol samples collected at two distinct Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) sampling stations. Eabs at 808 nm was observed to be approximately 1.2 at both of the sampling sites. Interestingly, the absorbing brown carbon chromophores showed a wide range of absorption in the ultraviolet to near-infrared wavelengths with minimum absorption at 635 nm. Thus, the present study suggests that the absorption of organics in near-infrared wavelengths cannot be neglected.

期刊论文 2022-02-17 DOI: 10.1021/acsearthspacechem.1c00362 ISSN: 2472-3452

Land surface albedo (LSA) directly affects the radiation balance and the surface heat budget. LSA is a key variable for local and global climate research. The complexity of LSA variations and the driving factors highlight the importance of continuous spatial and temporal monitoring. Snow, vegetation and soil are the main underlying surface factors affecting LSA dynamics. In this study, we combined Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) products and ERA5 reanalysis products to analyze the spatiotemporal variation and drivers of annual mean blue-sky albedo for stable land cover types in the middle-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (30~90 degrees N) from 1982 to 2015. Snow cover (SC) exhibited a decreasing trend in 99.59% of all pixels (23.73% significant), with a rate of -0.0813. Soil moisture (SM) exhibited a decreasing trend in 85.66% of all pixels (22.27% significant), with a rate of -0.0002. The leaf area index (LAI) exhibited a greening trend in 74.38% of all pixels (25.23% significant), with a rate of 0.0014. Blue-sky albedo exhibited a decreasing trend in 98.97% of all pixels (65.12% significant), with a rate of -0.0008 (OLS slope). Approximately 98.16% of all pixels (57.01% significant) exhibited a positive correlation between blue-sky albedo and SC. Approximately 47.78% and 67.38% of all pixels (17.13% and 25.3% significant, respectively) exhibited a negative correlation between blue-sky albedo and SM and LAI, respectively. Approximately 10.31%, 20.81% and 68.88% of the pixel blue-sky albedo reduction was mainly controlled by SC, SM and LAI, respectively. The decrease in blue-sky albedo north of 40 degrees N was mainly caused by the decrease in SC. The decrease in blue-sky albedo south of 40 degrees N was mainly caused by SM reduction and vegetation greening. The decrease in blue-sky albedo in the western Tibetan Plateau was caused by vegetation greening, SM increase and SC reduction. The results have important scientific significance for the study of surface processes and global climate change.

期刊论文 2022-02-01 DOI: 10.3390/rs14040895

This study investigates the long-term (2003-2019) variations of high aerosol loading days and their radiative impacts over the western Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) and eastern IGP during pre-monsoon season (March-April-May-June). The Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) climatology from MODIS (Terra and Aqua) and MERRA-2 reanalysis shows high aerosol burden across the IGP region during the pre-monsoon season. The high aerosol loading days are identified based on a standardized AOD anomaly approach, from MODIS and MERRA-2. The frequency of high aerosol loading days over the western IGP is roughly twice that of the total number of high aerosol loading days over the eastern IGP. The area-averaged percentage differences in AOD between high aerosol loading days and normal days over western IGP is always higher, about 6-8%, than eastern IGP from Terra, Aqua and MERRA-2. The natural (mainly dust) and anthropogenic aerosols (particularly sulfate, black carbon and organic carbon) are majorly contributed to total AOD over western IGP and eastern IGP. Furthermore, the MERRA-2 and ERA5 composite surface and 850 hPa wind anomalies show that strong westerly winds dominate, transporting dust aerosols from arid regions to the western IGP. On the other hand, weak prevailing winds and background pre-monsoonal cyclonic circulations over eastern IGP favor the accumulation of regionally emitted aerosols. During high aerosol loading days, the decrease in ventilation coefficient indicates the high aerosol burden (less dispersion) over both the regions, leading to the deterioration of air quality. The enhanced aerosol loading induced potential atmospheric radiative forcing (19.78 Wm(-2) over western IGP and 20.77 Wm(-2) over eastern IGP) during high aerosol loading days compared to normal days (11.12 Wm(-2) and 12.9 Wm(-2)).

期刊论文 2022-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118837 ISSN: 1352-2310
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