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The Tibetan Railway has introduced pressures on the fragile grassland ecosystems of the Tibetan Plateau. However, the impact of the railway on the carbon sequestration remains unclear, as existing studies primarily focus on in-situ vegetation observations. In this study, we extracted the start and end of the growing season (SOS, EOS) and maximum daily GPP (GPPmax) along the railway corridor from the satellite-derived Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) data, and quantified the extent and intensity of the railway's disturbance on these indicators. We further employed the Statistical Model of Integrated Phenology and Physiology (SMIPP) to translate these disturbances into annual cumulative GPP (GPPann). Results show that Tibetan Railway significantly influences grassland within 50-meters, causing earlier SOS (0.1086 d m-1), delayed EOS (0.0646 d m-1), and reduced GPPmax (0.0069 gC m-2 d-1 m-1) as the distance to the railway gets closer. The advanced SOS and delayed EOS contributed gains of 28.82 and 104.26 MgC y-1, but reduction in GPPmax accounted for a loss of 2952.79 MgC y-1. Railway-induced phenology-physiology trade-off causes GPPann loss of 2819.71 MgC y-1. This study reveals Tibetan Railway's impact on grassland carbon cycling, offering insights for grassland conservation and sustainable transportation infrastructure projects.

期刊论文 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1080/17538947.2025.2554326 ISSN: 1753-8947

Understanding changes in water balance and land-atmosphere interaction under climate change is crucial for managing water resources in alpine regions, especially in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Evapotranspiration (ET), a key process in the land-atmosphere interaction, is influenced by permafrost degradation. As the active layer in permafrost regions deepens due to climate warming, the resulting shifts in surface hydrologic connectivity and water storage capacity affect vegetation's ability to access water, thereby influencing its growth and regulating ET dynamics, though the full complexity of this process remains unclear. This study employs the Budyko-Fu model to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of ET and the ET ratio (the ratio of ET to precipitation) on the QTP from 1980 to 2100. While ET shows a continuous upward trend, the ET ratio exhibits a non-monotonic pattern, increasing initially and then decreasing. More than two-thirds of permafrost areas on the QTP surpassed the critical ET ratio threshold by 2023, under three emission scenarios. By 2100, nearly all areas are projected to reach the tipping point, with 97 % affected under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Meadow and steppe regions are expected to encounter this threshold earlier, whereas forested areas will be less affected, with over 80 % unlikely to reach the tipping point by 2100. Basin-level differences are notable: nearly 90 % of the Qaidam basin exceeded the threshold before 2023, compared to less than 50 % in the Yangtze basin. By 2100, more than 80 % of regions in all basins are expected to cross the tipping point due to ongoing permafrost degradation. This study advances understanding of land-atmosphere interactions in alpine regions, providing critical insights for water resource management and improving extreme weather predictions.

期刊论文 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133912 ISSN: 0022-1694

Vegetation greening across the Tibetan Plateau, a critical ecological response to climate warming and land-cover change, affects soil hydrothermal regimes, altering soil moisture (SM) and soil temperature (ST) dynamics. However, its effects on SM-ST coupling remain poorly understood. Using integrated field measurements from a vegetation-soil (V-S) network, reanalysis, and physics-based simulations, we quantify responses of SM, ST, and their coupling to vegetation changes across the Upper Brahmaputra (UB) basin, southern Tibetan Plateau. Results show that strong positive SM-ST correlations occur throughout 0-289 cm soil layers across the basin, consistent with the monsoon-driven co-occurrence of rainy and warm seasons. Spatially, SM-ST coupling strength exhibits pronounced spatial heterogeneity, demonstrating strongest coupling in central basin areas with weaker intensities in eastern and western regions. Overall, vegetation greening consistently induces soil warming and drying: as leaf area index (LAI) increases from 20 % to 180 % of its natural levels, SM (0-160 cm) declines by 15 % to 29 % due to enhanced evapotranspiration and root water uptake. Mean ST simultaneously increases by 1.4 +/- 0.9 degrees C. Crucially, sparsely vegetated regions sustain warming (1.4-2.1 degrees C), while densely vegetated areas transition from initial warming to gradual cooling. These findings advance our understanding of soil hydrothermal dynamics and their broader environmental impacts, improving climate model parameterizations and informing sustainable land management strategies in high-altitude ecosystems.

期刊论文 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.catena.2025.109455 ISSN: 0341-8162

Thawing permafrost alters climate not only through carbon emissions but also via energy-water feedback and atmospheric teleconnections. This review focuses on the Tibetan Plateau, where strong freeze-thaw cycles, intense radiation, and complex snow-vegetation interactions constitute non-carbon climate responses. We synthesize recent evidence that links freeze-thaw cycles, ground heat flux dynamics, and soil moisture hysteresis to latent heat feedback, monsoon modulation, and planetary wave anomalies. Across these pathways, both observational and simulation studies reveal consistent signals of feedback amplification and nonlinear threshold behavior. However, most Earth system models underrepresent these processes due to simplifications in freezethaw processes, snow-soil-vegetation coupling, and cross-seasonal memory effects. We conclude by identifying priority processes to better simulate multi-scale cryosphere-climate feedback, especially under continued climate warming in high-altitude regions.

期刊论文 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2025.105248 ISSN: 0012-8252

Frozen soil, covering most of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), critically influences land surface and climate simulations. Although some studies have made advancements in simulations, further investigation into the distinct mechanisms underlying relevant parameterization schemes remains essential. This study compares two frozen soil permeability schemes in Noah-MP (NY06: high-permeability; Koren99: low-permeability) to elucidate their distinct hydrological mechanisms. Although significant disparities exist in the simulation of soil water and ice content between the two schemes in permafrost regions, the simulated soil water content in the shallow layer exhibits similarity. Their underlying physical processes behind this similarity differ fundamentally: Koren99 relies on cross-seasonal ice melt recharge, whereas NY06 depends more on current-season precipitation and snowmelt. With greater soil depth, soil water differences progressively propagate downward, amplifying variations in hydraulic conductivity, and soil memory effects become increasingly dominant. Meanwhile, the Koren99 scheme more effectively impedes bottom-up melting water transport than top-down effect. However, the aforementioned disparities are not apparent in seasonally frozen soil. Notable disparities also exist in simulated evapotranspiration and surface runoff over permafrost regions, particularly during the summer months. This research investigates the differences in water transport within frozen soil over the TP, elucidates the distinct hydrological mechanisms underlying different frozen soil permeability schemes, and highlights that similar soil hydrothermal simulations are associated with different physical processes, leading to varying degrees of effectiveness in soil memory. Furthermore, this research elucidates the dual role of soil ice (permeability restriction and water storage) in hydrological processes, providing a theoretical basis for improving frozen soil parameterization.

期刊论文 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133437 ISSN: 0022-1694

Permafrost in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is highly sensitive to climate change, but its evolution over past century remains unclear. Based on the QTP climate change analysis since the 20th century, our study employed machine learning technique with field observations to construct permafrost simulation models, clarify its evolution processes, and reveal its changes on vertical zonation and sunny-shady slope distribution under climate warming. The results indicated that the QTP air temperature trends included initial warming (1900-1940 s, 0.13 degrees C/10a), cooling (1950-1960 s, - 0.20 degrees C/10a), and warming again (1970s to 2010s, 0.21 degrees C/10a). Precipitation patterns showed a slight decrease (- 0.33 mm/10a), rapid decrease (- 6.75 mm/10a), and gradual increase (6.57 mm/10a). Correspondingly, significant permafrost changes were recorded during the periods of 1900s, 1940s, 1960s, and 2010s, with the permafrost areas of 1.28, 1.19, 1.30, and 1.10 x 106 km2, respectively, and average mean annual ground temperature (active layer thickness) were - 2.82 +/- 1.93 degrees C (1.89 +/- 0.72 m), - 2.58 +/- 1.91 degrees C (2.21 +/- 0.78 m), - 2.86 +/- 1.94 degrees C (2.10 +/- 0.79 m), and - 2.26 +/- 1.72 degrees C (2.23 +/- 0.75 m) (mean +/- standard deviation), respectively. The southern Qiangtang Plateau and Three Rivers Source region exhibited significant permafrost changes during both the warming and cooling stages. Climate warming over the past 50 years has raised the average permafrost distribution altitude by 43 m, and accelerated its degradation on sunny slopes. These findings exhibit new knowledges on the QTP permafrost evolution and provide scientific references for permafrost degradation research under climate warming.

期刊论文 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-025-07855-w ISSN: 0930-7575

The spatial distribution of saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) is controlled by soil processes at multiple scales, and this spatial variability is crucial to simulating soil moisture movement. Nevertheless, few studies focus on the spatial variability of Ks and how changes through alpine meadow degradation or the specific scales at which the controlling factors function. This study therefore examines the scale-dependent relationships between Ks and several primary driving factors. Soil samples were collected at an interval of 3 m along three transects on a slope in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and Ks, bulk density (BD), above-ground biomass (AGB), soil organic carbon content (SOC), sand content (SAND), silt content (SILT) and clay content (CLAY) were analysed. Ks showed strong spatial dependency and irregular distribution due to alpine meadow degradation. Pearson correlation analysis revealed a significant correlation between BD, AGB and Ks (p < 0.001). Furthermore, cross-semivariograms showed that Ks exhibited strong spatial correlation with AGB and SAND. Using the state space method, we determined that BD, SOC, AGB and CLAY are the main factors that control the spatial distribution of Ks on the slope. A two-factor state-space equation based on CLAY and BD provides a good representation of Ks, enabling the prediction and estimation of Ks distribution characteristics. These findings enhance our understanding of the crucial parameters that govern hydrological processes at the slope-scale of alpine grassland on the QTP, thereby helping to elucidate permafrost-related hydrological processes related to climate change.

期刊论文 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1002/hyp.70254 ISSN: 0885-6087

Study area: The Binggou and adjacent Yakou catchments in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Study focus: Hillslope flow paths were studied using hydrochemical data of various water types in the spring snowmelt and summer rainfall periods based on hydrochemical tracers and endmember mixing analysis. New hydrological insights for the study region: End-member mixing analysis confirmed the dominance of surface and near-surface runoff during the spring snowmelt. Specifically, the spring Binggou stream water had 61 % surface runoff, 22 % shallow groundwater, and 17 % near-surface runoff. The spring Yakou stream water had 64 % snowmelt, 25.5 % near-surface runoff, and 10.5 % riparian saturated soil water at a depth of 20 cm. The application of end-member mixing analysis failed in the summer rainfall period, and shallow subsurface flow contributed the most to the streamflow (similar to 100 %). The average acid-neutralizing capacity of the spring Yakou stream water was 611 mu eq/L, increasing to 841 mu eq/L in the summer, and for the Binggou stream water, the values were 747 mu eq/L and 1084 mu eq/L, respectively, indicating that the thawed soil layers had a significant buffering effect on stream water chemistry. This study revealed seasonal shifts in flow paths and stream sources, with a transition from surface to subsurface flow influenced by meteorological conditions and the active layer thickness. Future climate change may enhance subsurface flow recharge, leading to less diluted streamflow and stronger water-soil interactions.

期刊论文 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102511

Permafrost degradation on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has triggered widespread retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs), affecting hydrology, carbon sequestration and infrastructure stability. To date, there is still a lack of long-term monitoring of RTSs across the TP, the thaw dynamics and comprehensive driving factors remain unclear. Here, using time-series Landsat imagery and change detection algorithm, we identified RTSs on permafrost regions of the TP from 1986 to 2020. Existing RTSs inventories and high-resolution historical imagery were employed to verify the identified results, the temporal validation of RTSs disturbance pixels demonstrated a high accuracy. In the study area, a total of 3537 RTSs were identified, covering a total area of 5997 ha, representing a 26-fold increase since 1986, and 69.2 % of RTSs formed since 2010. Most RTSs are located on gentle slope (4-12 degrees) at elevations between 4500 m and 5300 m, with a tendency to form in alpine grassland and alpine meadow. Annual variations in RTSs area exhibited a significant positive correlation with minimum air temperature, mean land surface temperature, and annual thawing index, while it showing a significant negative correlation with the decrease in downward shortwave radiation. Spatially, RTSs were more common in areas with higher soil water content and shallower active layer. Landsat imagery captured the vast majority of RTSs on the TP and revealed interannual disturbance details, but the 30 m resolution remains inadequate for delineating the refined boundaries of some micro-scale (< 0.18 ha) RTSs. Detected RTSs disturbances on the TP will aid in hazard management and carbon feedback assessments, and our findings provide novel insights into the impacts of climate change and permafrost environments on RTSs formation.

期刊论文 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2025.114786 ISSN: 0034-4257

Ice records provide a qualitative rather than a quantitative indication of the trend of climate change. Using the bulk aerodynamic method and degree day model, this study quantified ice mass loss attributable to sublimation/evaporation (S/E) and meltwater on the basis of integrated observations (1960-2006) of glacier-related and atmospheric variables in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. During 1961-2005, the average annual mass loss in the ice core was 95.33 +/- 20.56 mm w.e. (minimum: 78.97 mm w.e. in 1967, maximum: 146.67 mm w.e. in 2001), while the average ratio of the revised annual ice accumulation was 21.2 +/- 7.7% (minimum: 11.0% in 1992, maximum 44.8% in 2000). A quantitative formula expressing the relationship between S/E and air temperature at the monthly scale was established, which could be extended to estimation of S/E changes of other glaciers in other regions. The elevation effect on alpine precipitation determined using revised ice accumulation and instrumental data was found remarkable. This work established a method for quantitative assessment of the temporal variation in ice core mass loss, and advanced the reconstruction of long-term precipitation at high elevations. Importantly, the formula established for reconstruction of S/E from temperature time series data could be used in other regions.

期刊论文 2025-07-01 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.51 ISSN: 0022-1430
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