Analysis of climatic conditions for the period of instrumental measurement in Central Yakutia showed three periods with two different mean annual air temperature (MAAT) shifts. These periods were divided into 1930-1987 (base period A), 1988-2006 (period B) and 2007-2018 (period C) timelines. The MAAT during these three periods amounted -10.3, -8.6 and -7.4 degrees C, respectively. Measurement of active layer depth (ALD) of permafrost pale soil under the forest (natural) and arable land (anthropogenic) were carried out during 1990-2018 period. MAAT change for this period affected an early transition of negative temperatures to positive and a later establishment of negative temperatures. Additionally, a shortening of the winter season and an extension of the duration of days with positive temperatures was found. Since the permafrost has a significant impact on soil moisture and thermal regimes, the deepening of ALD plays a negative role for studied soils. An increase in the ALD can cause thawing of underground ice and lead to degradation of the ice-rich permafrost. This thaw process causes a change of the ecological balance and leads to the destruction of natural landscapes, sometimes with a complete or prolonged loss of their biological productivity. During this observation (1990-2018 period) the active layer of permafrost is characterized by high dynamics, depending on climatic parameters such as air temperature, as well as thickness and duration of snow cover. A significant increase in ALD of forest permafrost soils-by 80 cm and 65 cm-on arable land was measured during the observation period (28 years).

Model projections of permafrost thaw during the next century diverge widely. Here we used ecosys to examine how climate change will affect permafrost thaw in a polygonal tundra at Barrow AK. The model was tested against diurnal and seasonal variation in energy exchange, soil heat flux, soil temperature (T-s), and active layer depth (ALD) measured during 2014 and 2015, and interannual variation in ALD measured from 1991 to 2015. During RCP 8.5 climate change from 2015 to 2085, increases in T-a and precipitation (P) to 6.2 degrees C and 27% above current values, and in atmospheric CO2 concentrations (C-a) to763 mu molmol(-1), altered energy exchange by increasing leaf area index of dominant sedge relative to that of moss. Increased C-a and sedge leaf area index imposed greater stomatal control of transpiration and reduced soil heat fluxes, slowing soil warming, limiting increases in evapotranspiration, and thereby causing gradual soil wetting. Consequently, increases in surface T-s and ALD of 2.4-4.7 degrees C and 21-24cm above current values were modeled after 70years. ALD increase was slowed if model boundary conditions were altered to improve landscape drainage. These rates were smaller than those of earlier modeling studies, some of which did not account for changes in vegetation, but are closer to those derived from current studies of warming impacts in the region. Therefore, accounting for climate change effects on vegetation density and composition, and consequent effects on surface energy budgets, will cause slower increases in T-s and ALD to be modeled during climate change simulations.

Climate warming is expected to increasingly influence boreal peatlands and alter their greenhouse gases emissions. However, the effects of warming on N2O fluxes and the N2O budgets were ignored in boreal peatlands. Therefore, in a boreal peatland of permafrost zone in Northeast China, a simulated warming experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of warming on N2O fluxes in Betula. Fruticosa community (B. Fruticosa) and Ledum. palustre community (L. palustre) during the growing seasons from 2013 to 2015. Results showed that warming treatment increased air temperature at 1.5 m aboveground and soil temperature at 5 cm depth by 0.6 degrees C and 2 degrees C, respectively. The average seasonal N2O fluxes ranged from 6.62 to 9.34 mu g m(-2) h(-1) in the warming plot and ranged from 0.41 to 4.55 mu g m(-2) h(-1) in the control plots. Warming treatment increased N2O fluxes by 147% and transformed the boreal peatlands from a N2O sink to a source. The primary driving factors for N2O fluxes were soil temperature and active layer depth, whereas soil moisture showed a weak correlation with N2O fluxes. The results indicated that warming promoted N2O fluxes by increasing soil temperature and active layer depth in a boreal peatland of permafrost zone in Northeast China. Moreover, elevated N2O fluxes persisted in this region will potentially drive a noncarbon feedback to ongoing climate change. (c) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical correlations between seasonal air temperatures and snow depths and active layer depths and permafrost temperatures were analysed for tundra (Marre-Salle) and northern taiga (Nadym) sites in Western Siberia. Interannual variations in active layer depth in the tundra zone correlated with the average air temperature of the current summer, and in peatland and humid tundra, also with summer temperatures of the preceding 1-2 years. In the northern taiga zone, the active layer depth related to current summer air temperature and to a lesser extent, to spring and/or winter air temperatures. Variations in summer permafrost temperatures at 5-10 m depth were correlated with spring air temperatures in the current and preceding 1-2 years. The weather regime during the preceding 12 years, therefore, reinforced or weakened ground temperature variations in a given year. Overall, the most important factors influencing the permafrost regime were spring and summer air temperatures, and in one case snow depth. However, statistical links between meteorological and permafrost parameters varied between the tundra and northern taiga zones and among landscape types within each zone, emphasising the importance of analyses at short temporal scales and for individual terrain units. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.