Pile foundations supporting wind turbines and offshore platforms are always subjected to asymmetric lateral cyclic loads from wind and waves. To calculate the lateral response of the pile in sand under asymmetric cyclic loading, this paper proposes a p- y curve model to deal with different levels of load reversal. According to the state of the soil around the pile under asymmetric cyclic loading, the scaling factor of the reloading curve is modified. The soil collapse-recompression model is also extended to apply to different cases of asymmetric cyclic loading according to the characteristics of soil convection during asymmetric cyclic loading. By modifying the shape and position of the p- y curves to different degrees, the lateral response of the pile under asymmetric cyclic loading can be obtained in combination with the improved finite difference method. The validity of the proposed model is demonstrated by comparing the results with the centrifuge model tests. Then, the pile displacement accumulation, the variation of the bending moment, and the soil resistance under asymmetric cyclic loading, are further discussed.

Western Siberia is exposed to extreme wind events caused by severe convective storms. However, our knowledge on such storms in Siberia is still fragmentary compared to other parts of the world primarily due to the lack of weather radar data. These storms cause substantial damage, which signifies the need for comprehensive assessment of their characteristics and predictability even on the basis of existing data. In this paper, we present a case study analysis of a severe weather outbreak that occurred on 25-26 May 2020 in Western Siberia, during a record six-month heatwave that lasted in Siberia from January to June. The outbreak resulted in six fatalities and substantial economic losses. Using various satellite data and damage reports we found that two consecutive mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) developed within the outbreak having an exceptionally long total track about 2000 km and causing large-scale forest damage with a total area of 64.5 km(2). Such an exceptionally long path was supported by a strong mid-tropospheric jet, which settled extremely high values of wind shear that fostered the development of the outbreak. To analyze the accuracy of the forecast of the MCS and three asso-ciated windstorms on 26 May, we performed a set of simulations with the COSMO and ICON numerical weather prediction models launched with convection-permitting resolution (2.2 km) with different forecast lead times. Both models successfully predicted the most severe windstorm with the 24 h lead time, this emphasized the predominant role of large-scale dynamics and the minor role of local factors in the outbreak formation and development. In particular, the intrusion of the upper tropospheric high potential vorticity streamer along the blocking periphery induced strong deep convection and determined the severe character of the outbreak. Specifically, the studied outbreak had an exceptional longevity compared to other long-lived windstorms observed in Northern Eurasia at the blocking periphery.

Infrastructure and transportation systems on which northern communities rely are exposed to a variety of climatic hazards over a broad range of scales. Efforts to adapt these systems to the rapidly warming Arctic climate require high-quality climate projections. Here, a state-of-the-art regional climate model is used to perform simulations at 4-km resolution over the eastern and central Canadian Arctic. These include, for the first time over this region, high-resolution climate projections extending to the year 2040. Validation shows that the model adequately simulates base climate variables, as well as variables hazardous to northern engineering and transportation systems, such as degrading permafrost, extreme rainfall, and extreme wind gust. Added value is found over coarser resolution simulations. A novel approach integrating climate model output and machine learning is used for deriving fog-an important, but complex hazard. Hotspots of change to climatic hazards over the next two decades (2021-2040) are identified. These include increases to short-duration rainfall intensity extremes exceeding 50%, suggesting Super-Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. Increases to extreme wind gust pressure are projected to reach 25% over some regions, while widespread increases in active layer thickness and ground temperature are expected. Overall fog frequency is projected to increase by around 10% over most of the study region by 2040, due to increasing frequency of high humidity conditions. Given that these changes are projected to be already underway, urgent action is required to successfully adapt northern transportation and engineering systems located in regions where the magnitude of hazards is projected to increase.

Air and near-surface ground temperatures were measured using dataloggers over 14 years (2006-2020) in 10 locations at 2262 to 2471 m.a.s.l. in a glacial cirque of the Cantabrian Mountains. These sites exhibit relevant differences in terms of substrate, solar radiation, orientation, and geomorphology. Basal temperature of snow (BTS) measurements and electrical resistivity tomography of the talus slope were also performed. The mean annual near-surface ground temperatures ranged from 5.1 degrees C on the sunny slope to 0.2 degrees C in the rock glacier furrow, while the mean annual air temperature was 2.5 degrees C. Snow cover was inferred from near-surface ground temperature (GST) data, estimating between 130 and 275 days per year and 0.5 to 7.1 m snow thickness. Temperature and BTS data show that the lowest part of the talus slope and the rock glacier furrow are the coldest places in this cirque, coinciding with a more persistent and thickest snow cover. The highest temperatures coincide with less snow cover, fine-grained soils, and higher solar radiation. Snow cover has a primary role in controlling GST, as the delayed appearance in autumn or delayed disappearance in spring have a cooling effect, but no correlation with mean annual near-surface ground temperatures exists. Heavy rain-over-snow events have an important influence on the GST. In the talus slope, air circulation during the snow-covered period produces a cooling effect in the lower part, especially during the summer. Significant inter-annual GST differences were observed that exhibited BTS limitations. A slight positive temperature trend was detected but without statistically significance and less prominent than nearby reference official meteorological stations, so topoclimatic conditions reduced the more global positive temperature trend. Probable existence of permafrost in the rock glacier furrow and the lowest part of the talus slope is claimed; however, future work is necessary to confirm this aspect.

Motivated by the mushy zones of sea ice, volcanoes and icy moons of the outer solar system, we perform a theoretical and numerical study of boundary-layer convection along a vertical heated wall in a bounded ideal mushy region. The mush is comprised of a porous and reactive binary alloy with a mixture of saline liquid in a solid matrix, and is studied in the near-eutectic approximation. Here, we demonstrate the existence of four regions and study their behaviour asymptotically. Starting from the bottom of the wall, the four regions are (i) an isotropic corner region; (ii) a buoyancy dominated vertical boundary layer; (iii) an isotropic connection region; and (iv) a horizontal boundary layer at the top boundary with strong gradients of pressure and buoyancy. Scalings from numerical simulations are consistent with the theoretical predictions. Close to the heated wall, the convection in the mushy layer is similar to a rising buoyant plume abruptly stopped at the top, leading to increased pressure and temperature in the upper region, whose impact is discussed as an efficient melting mechanism.

Warm season moist diurnal convection can be particularly sensitive to changes in land surface characteristics such as snow cover and soil moisture. Over regions of mountainous terrain, climate change is expected to reduce snow cover along the low-elevation seasonal snowpack margin. These snow reductions alter surface albedo and soil moisture content, leading to changes in surface fluxes and alterations in mesoscale orographic circulations that act to transport moisture and provide ascent. A set of convection-permitting regional climate simulations centered on the Rocky Mountains of Colorado are conducted from April through July across a period of 12 years (2002-2013). These include a reanalysis forced control run (CTR), a pseudo global warming run (PGW), and an additional altered land surface run (DSURF) used to isolate the effects of the snow albedo and soil moisture changes on orographic convection. Over the mountains, daytime hourly precipitation accumulation (0900-1800 MST) decreased in PGW by an average of 4.2% while precipitation in DSURF increased by 12.5%. On days with weak synoptic forcing, the PGW response more closely follow the DSURF response with daytime hourly increases averaging 29.7% for PGW and 28.7% for DSURF. For PGW, hourly daytime precipitation intensity increases of up to 82% overcome reductions in precipitation frequency to produce higher accumulations. DSURF shows smaller increases in intensity of up to 23% and broad increases in daytime frequency indicating that surface changes act to moderate reductions in the frequency of convective precipitation. Reduced snow cover contributes to this convective response by increasing convective instability and boundary layer moisture and decreasing lifting condensation level over the high terrain. Alterations in orographic thermal circulations contribute to this response by converging moisture over the high terrain and enhancing mesoscale ascent.

In order to study the plasma convection in the deep magnetotail lobes near lunar orbit, we investigated ions originating from the tenuous exosphere and surface of the Moon, which are measured by the Acceleration, Reconnection, Turbulence, and Electrodynamics of Moon's Interaction with the Sun (ARTEMIS) spacecraft. Directly measuring the plasma convection in the tail lobes is difficult, due to the typically large positive spacecraft potential. In this work we show that in the terrestrial magnetotail near the Moon, the convection velocity can be estimated by measuring the velocity of lunar ions. Determining what factors control the lobe convection is important in understanding the linkage between the upstream conditions and the dynamics of the tail lobes. Based on systematic analysis of multiple ARTEMIS observations and OMNI data, we find that the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and magnetospheric activity plays an important role in controlling plasma convection in the near-Moon lobes.

Long-term thermal effects of air convection embankments (ACEs) over 550-km-long permafrost zones along the Qinghai-Tibet railway were analyzed on the basis of 14-year records (2002-2016) of ground temperature. The results showed that, after embankment construction, permafrost tables beneath the ACEs moved upward quickly in the first 3years and then remained stable over the next 10years. The magnitude of this upward movement showed a positive correlation with embankment thickness. Shallow permafrost temperature beneath the ACEs decreased over a 5-year period after embankment construction in cold permafrost zones, but increased sharply concurrent with permafrost table upward movement in warm permafrost zones. Deep permafrost beneath all the ACEs showed a slow warming trend due to climate warming. Overall, the thermal effects of ACEs significantly uplifted underlying permafrost tables after embankment construction and then maintained them well in a warming climate. The different thermal effects of ACEs in cold and warm permafrost zones related to the working principle of the ACEs and natural ground thermal regime in the two zones. (c) 2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Large uncertainty in the direct radiative forcing of black carbon (BC) exists, with published estimates ranging from 0.25 to 0.9 W m(-2). A significant source of this uncertainty relates to the vertical distribution of BC, particularly relative to cloud layers. We first compare the vertical distribution of BC in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models to aircraft measurements and find that models tend to overestimate upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric (UT/LS) BC, particularly over the central Pacific from Hiaper Pole-to-Pole Observations Flight 1 (HIPPO1). However, CMIP5 generally underestimates Arctic BC from the Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites campaign, implying a geographically dependent bias. Factors controlling the vertical distribution of BC in CMIP5 models, such as wet and dry deposition, precipitation, and convective mass flux (MC), are subsequently investigated. We also perform a series of sensitivity experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, including prescribed meteorology, enhanced vertical resolution, and altered convective wet scavenging efficiency and deep convection. We find that convective mass flux has opposing effects on the amount of black carbon in the atmosphere. More MC is associated with more convective precipitation, enhanced wet removal, and less BC below 500 hPa. However, more MC, particularly above 500 hPa, yield more BC aloft due to enhanced convective lofting. These relationshipsparticularly MC versus BC below 500 hPa-are generally stronger in the tropics. Compared to the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, most CMIP5 models overestimate MC, with all models overestimating MC above 500 hPa. Our results suggest that excessive convective transport is one of the reasons for CMIP5 overestimation of UT/LS BC.

Galileo spacecraft data suggest that a global ocean exists beneath the frozen ice surface Jupiter's moon Europa. Since the early 1970s, planetary scientists have used theoretical and observational arguments to deliberate the existence of an ocean within Europa and other large icy satellites. Galileo magnetometry data indicates an induced magnetic field at Europa, implying a salt water ocean. A paucity of large craters argues for a surface on average only similar to 40-90 Myr old. Two multi-ring structures suggest that impacts punched through an ice shell similar to 20 km thick. Europa's ocean and surface are inherently linked through tidal deformation of the floating ice shell, and tidal flexing and nonsynchronous rotation generate stresses that fracture and deform the surface to create ridges and bands. Dark spots, domes, and chaos terrain are probably related to tidally driven ice convection along with partial melting within the ice shell. Europa's geological activity and probable mantle contact permit the chemical ingredients necessary for life to be present within the satellite's ocean. Astonishing geology and high astrobiological potential make Europa a top priority for future spacecraft exploration, with a primary goal of assessing its habitability.